scholarly journals Changes in the Intensity and Variability of Precipitation in the Central Region of Argentina between 1960 and 2012

Climate ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio de la Casa ◽  
Gustavo Ovando ◽  
Olga Nasello
Keyword(s):  
Central Region ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Total Annual Rainfall ◽  
Annual Frequency ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Long Term Trend

This study analyzes the temporal variation of different rainfall features in the central region of Argentina between 1960 and 2012, and evaluates the dynamics of temporal trends by using the Mann–Kendall–Sneyers (MKS) and Tomé–Miranda (TM) procedures. Under different criteria and levels of significance, rainfall time series show homogeneous behavior in more than 80% of cases. Only 18 of the 42 annual cases analyzed reached a significant long-term trend (p < 0.10). Total annual rainfall (AR) showed a significant increase only in Laboulaye Aero (LB) and Villa Dolores Aero (VD), but this does not currently persist. A decrease in the annual frequency of rainy days (DPF) is more widespread in the region. Thus, the increase in mean annual rainfall intensity (INT) seems to be particularly associated with the decrease in annual frequency of events (DPF) in the central region of Argentina. However, the increase in INT currently persists only at the Córdoba Observatorio (BO), as INT stopped growing for LB, Río Cuarto Aero (RC), and VD in the mid-1990s. The variation coefficients of total annual rainfall (ARCV) and DPF (DPFCV) have increased in the region, but with the former restricted locally to the Pilar Observatorio (PI), RC, and VM, and the latter to BO and RC. Long-term changes of the pluvial regime in the central region of Argentina appear to be not only local and restricted to some properties of rainfall during the period, but also reveal a particular dynamic where the long-term trends of the evaluated properties have now changed sign or maintain a certain constancy at present.

scholarly journals Hospital usage of TOXBASE in Great Britain: Temporal trends in accesses 2008 to 2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 37 (11) ◽  
pp. 1207-1214 ◽  
Author(s):  
K Pyper ◽  
M Eddleston ◽  
DN Bateman ◽  
D Lupton ◽  
S Bradberry ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Generalized Additive Models ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Emergency Admission ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Seasonal Patterns ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Day Of The Week ◽  
Future Work ◽  
Long Term Trend

Aim: To examine temporal trends in accesses to the UK’s National Poison Information Service’s TOXBASE database in Britain. Methods: Generalized additive models were used to examine trends in daily numbers of accesses to TOXBASE from British emergency departments between January 2008 and December 2015. Day-of-the-week, seasonality and long-term trends were analysed at national and regional levels (Wales, Scotland and the nine English Government Office Regions). Results: The long-term trend in daily accesses increases from 2.8 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.6–3.0) per user on 1 January 2008 to 4.6 (95% CI: 4.3–4.9) on 31 December 2015, with small but significant differences in population-corrected accesses by region ( p < 0.001). There are statistically significant seasonal and day of the week patterns ( p < 0.001) across all regions. Accesses are 18% (95% CI: 14–22%) higher in summer than in January and at the weekend compared to weekdays in all regions; there is a 7.5% (95% CI: 6.1–8.9%) increase between Friday and Sunday. Conclusions: There are consistent in-year patterns in access to TOXBASE indicating potential seasonal patterns in poisonings in Britain, with location-dependent rates of usage. This novel descriptive work lays the basis for future work on the interaction of TOXBASE use with emergency admission of patients into hospital.

scholarly journals Secular Variation in Rainfall Intensity and Temperature in Eastern Australia

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 1356-1363 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi-Ru Chen ◽  
Bofu Yu ◽  
Graham Jenkins
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Mean

Abstract It is generally assumed that rainfall intensity will increase with temperature increase, irrespective of the underlying changes to the average rainfall. This study documents and investigates long-term trends in rainfall intensities, annual rainfall, and mean maximum and minimum temperatures using the Mann–Kendall trend test for nine sites in eastern Australia. Relationships between rainfall intensities at various durations and 1) annual rainfall and 2) the mean maximum and minimum temperatures were investigated. The results showed that the mean minimum temperature has increased significantly at eight out of the nine sites in eastern Australia. Changes in annual rainfall are likely to be associated with changes in rainfall intensity at the long duration of 48 h. Overall, changes in rainfall intensity at short durations (&lt;1 h) positively correlate with changes in the mean maximum temperature, but there is no significant correlation with the mean minimum temperature and annual rainfall. Additionally, changes in rainfall intensity at longer durations (≥1 h) positively correlate with changes in the mean annual rainfall, but not with either mean maximum or minimum temperatures for the nine sites investigated.

scholarly journals Different long-term trends of the oxygen red 630.0 nm line nightglow intensity as the result of lowering the ionosphere F2 layer

2008 ◽  
Vol 26 (8) ◽  
pp. 2069-2080 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. B. Gudadze ◽  
G. G. Didebulidze ◽  
L. N. Lomidze ◽  
G. Sh. Javakhishvili ◽  
M. A. Marsagishvili ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Electron Density ◽  
Line Intensity ◽  
Peak Height ◽  
Height Distribution ◽  
Theoretical Simulation ◽  
Type Layer ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Long Term Trend

Abstract. Long-term observations of total nightglow intensity of the atomic oxygen red 630.0 nm line at Abastumani (41.75° N, 42.82° E) in 1957–1993 and measurements of the ionosphere F2 layer parameters from the Tbilisi ionosphere station (41.65° N, 44.75° E) in 1963–1986 have been analyzed. It is shown that a decrease in the long-term trend of the mean annual red 630.0 nm line intensity from the pre-midnight value (+0.770±1.045 R/year) to its minimum negative value (−1.080±0.670 R/year) at the midnight/after midnight is a possible result of the observed lowering of the peak height of the ionosphere F2 layer electron density hmF2 (−0.455±0.343 km/year). A theoretical simulation is carried out using a simple Chapman-type layer (damping in time) for the height distribution of the F2 layer electron density. The estimated values of the lowering in the hmF2, the increase in the red line intensity at pre-midnight and its decrease at midnight/after midnight are close to their observational ones, when a negative trend in the total neutral density of the upper atmosphere and an increase in the mean northward wind (or its possible consequence – a decrease in the southward one) are assumed.

scholarly journals Trends in the Frequency of Intense Precipitation Events in Southern and Southeastern Brazil during 1960–2004

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (7) ◽  
pp. 1913-1921 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateus da Silva Teixeira ◽  
Prakki Satyamurty
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Southeastern Brazil ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Event ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Annual Frequency ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Increasing Trends

Abstract A new approach to define heavy and extreme rainfall events based on cluster analysis and area-average rainfall series is presented. The annual frequency of the heavy and extreme rainfall events is obtained for the southeastern and southern Brazil regions. In the 1960–2004 period, 510 (98) and 466 (77) heavy (extreme) rainfall events are identified in the two regions. Monthly distributions of the events closely follow the monthly climatological rainfall in the two regions. In both regions, annual heavy and extreme rainfall event frequencies present increasing trends in the 45-yr period. However, only in southern Brazil is the trend statistically significant. Although longer time series are necessary to ensure the existence of long-term trends, the positive trends are somewhat alarming since they indicate that climate changes, in terms of rainfall regimes, are possibly under way in Brazil.

scholarly journals An Analysis of Long-Term Rainfall Trends and Variability in the Uttarakhand Himalaya Using Google Earth Engine

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 709 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abhishek Banerjee ◽  
Ruishan Chen ◽  
Michael E. Meadows ◽  
R.B. Singh ◽  
Suraj Mal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Google Earth ◽  
Monthly Rainfall ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Google Earth Engine ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Uttarakhand Himalaya ◽  
Rainy Days

This paper analyses the spatio-temporal trends and variability in annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall with corresponding rainy days in Bhilangana river basin, Uttarakhand Himalaya, based on stations and two gridded products. Station-based monthly rainfall and rainy days data were obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period from 1983 to 2008 and applied, along with two daily rainfall gridded products to establish temporal changes and spatial associations in the study area. Due to the lack of more recent ground station rainfall measurements for the basin, gridded data were then used to establish monthly rainfall spatio-temporal trends for the period 2009 to 2018. The study shows all surface observatories in the catchment experienced an annual decreasing trend in rainfall over the 1983 to 2008 period, averaging 15.75 mm per decade. Analysis of at the monthly and seasonal trend showed reduced rainfall for August and during monsoon season as a whole (10.13 and 11.38 mm per decade, respectively); maximum changes were observed in both monsoon and winter months. Gridded rainfall data were obtained from the Climate Hazard Infrared Group Precipitation Station (CHIRPS) and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR). By combining the big data analytical potential of Google Earth Engine (GEE), we compare spatial patterns and temporal trends in observational and modelled precipitation and demonstrate that remote sensing products can reliably be used in inaccessible areas where observational data are scarce and/or temporally incomplete. CHIRPS reanalysis data indicate that there are in fact three significantly distinct annual rainfall periods in the basin, viz. phase 1: 1983 to 1997 (relatively high annual rainfall); phase 2: 1998 to 2008 (drought); phase 3: 2009 to 2018 (return to relatively high annual rainfall again). By comparison, PERSIANN-CDR data show reduced annual and winter precipitation, but no significant changes during the monsoon and pre-monsoon seasons from 1983 to 2008. The major conclusions of this study are that rainfall modelled using CHIRPS corresponds well with the observational record in confirming the decreased annual and seasonal rainfall, averaging 10.9 and 7.9 mm per decade respectively between 1983 and 2008, although there is a trend (albeit not statistically significant) to higher rainfall after the marked dry period between 1998 and 2008. Long-term variability in rainfall in the Bhilangana river basin has had critical impacts on the environment arising from water scarcity in this mountainous region.

scholarly journals Long-term trends in the relation between daytime and nighttime values of <I>fo</I>F2

2008 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 1199-1206 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. D. Danilov
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Thermospheric Winds ◽  
Long Term Trend ◽  
Ionospheric Sounding ◽  
Limiting Value

Abstract. The data from the vertical ionospheric sounding for 12 stations over the world were analyzed to find the relation between the values of foF2 for 02:00 LT and 14:00 LT of the same day. It is found that, in general, there exists a negative correlation between foF2(02) and foF2(14). The value of the correlation coefficient R(foF2) can be in some cases high enough and reach minus 0.7–0.8. The value of R(foF2) demonstrates a well pronounced seasonal variations, the highest negative values being observed at the equinox periods of the year. It is also found that R(foF2) depends on geomagnetic activity: the magnitude of R(foF2) is the highest for the choice of only magnetically quiet days (Ap<6), decreasing with the increase of the limiting value of Ap. For a fixed limitation on Ap, the value of R(foF2) depends also on solar activity. Apparently, the effects found are related to thermospheric winds. Analysis of long series of the vertical sounding data shows that there is a long-term trend in R(foF2) with a statistically significant increase in the R(foF2) magnitude after about 1980. Similar analysis is performed for the foF2(02)/foF2(14) ratio itself. The ratio also demonstrates a systematic trend after 1980. Both trends are interpreted in terms of long-term changes in thermospheric circulation.

Long-term trend analysis of deep-ocean acoustic noise data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sei-Him Cheong ◽  
Stephen P Robinson ◽  
Peter M Harris ◽  
Lian S Wang ◽  
Valerie Livina
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Sound Pressure ◽  
Functional Model ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Ocean Noise ◽  
Noise Data ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Long Term Trend ◽  
Monitoring Stations

&lt;p&gt;Underwater noise is recognised as a form of marine pollutant and there is evidence that over exposure to excessive levels of noise can have effects on the wellbeing of the marine ecosystem. Consequently, the variation in the ambient sound levels in the deep ocean has been the subject of a number of recent studies, with particular interest in the identification of long-term trends. We describe a statistical method for performing long-term trend analysis and uncertainty evaluation of the estimated trends from deep-ocean noise data. This study has been extended to include &amp;#160;measured data&amp;#160; from four monitoring stations located in the Indian (Cape Leeuwin &amp; Diego Garcia), Pacific (Wake Island) and Southern Atlantic (Ascension Islands) Oceans over periods spanning between 8 to 15 years. The data were obtained from the hydro-acoustic monitoring stations of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO). The monitoring stations provide information at a sampling frequency of 250 Hz, leading to very large datasets, and at acoustic frequencies up to 105 Hz.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The analysis method uses a flexible discrete model that incorporates terms that capture seasonal variations in the data together with a moving-average statistical model to describe the serial correlation of residual deviations. The trend analysis is applied to time series representing daily aggregated statistical levels for four frequency bands to obtain estimates for the change in sound pressure level (SPL) over the examined period with associated coverage intervals. The analysis demonstrates that there are statistically significant changes in the levels of deep-ocean noise over periods exceeding a decade. The main features of the approach include (a) using a functional model&amp;#160; with terms&amp;#160; that represent both long-term and seasonal behaviour of deep-ocean noise, (b) using a statistical model to capture the serial correlation of the residual deviations that are not explained by the functional model, (c) using daily aggregation intervals derived from 1-minute &amp;#160;sound pressure level averages, and (d) applying a non-parametric approach to validate the uncertainties of the trend estimates that avoids the need to make an assumption about the distribution of the residual deviations.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The obtained results show the long term trends vary differently at the four stations. It was observed that low frequency noise generally dominated the significant trends in these oceans. The relative differences between the various statistical levels are remarkably similar for all the frequency bands. Given the complexity of the acoustic environment, it is difficult to identify the main causes of these trends. Some possible explanations for the observed trends are discussed. It was however observed some stations are subjected to strong seasonal variation with a high degree of correlation with climatic factors such as sea surface temperature, Antarctic ice coverage and wind speed. The same seasonal effects is less pronounced in station located closer to the equator.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Long term trends in fertility of soils under continuous cultivation and cereal cropping in southern Queensland. II. Total organic carbon and its rate of loss from the soil profile

Soil Research ◽  
1986 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 281 ◽  
Author(s):  
RC Dalal ◽  
RJ Mayer
Keyword(s):  
Activity Ratio ◽  
Clay Content ◽  
Continuous Cultivation ◽  
Stepwise Multiple Regression ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Aggregation Index ◽  
Organic C ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Kinetics Of

The kinetics of organic C loss were studied in six southern Queensland soils subjected to different periods (0-70 years) of cultivation and cereal cropping. The equation: Ct = Ce + (C0 - Ce)exp(- kt), where C0, Ce and C, are organic C contents initially, at equilibrium and at time k respectively, and k is the rate of loss of organic C from soil, was employed in the study. The parameter k was calculated both for %C (kc) and for weight of organic C/volume of soil (k,), determined by correcting for differences in sampling depth due to changes in bulk density upon cultivation. Mean annual rainfall largely determined both C, and Ce, presumably by influencing the amount of dry matter produced. Values of kc and kw varied greatly among the soils studied. For the 0-0.1 m depth, kw was 0.065, 0.080, 0.180, 0.259, 0.069 and 1.224 year-1 respectively for Waco (black earth - initially grassland), Langland-Logie (grey brown and red clays - brigalow), Cecilvale (grey, brown and red clays - poplar box), Billa Billa (grey, brown and red clays - belah), Thallon (grey, brown and red clays - coolibah) and Riverview (red earths - silver-leaved ironbark). The k values were significantly correlated with organic Chrease activity ratio (r = 0.99***) and reciprocal of clay content (r = 0.97**) of the virgin soils. In stepwise multiple regression analysis, aggregation index (for kc values) or exchangeable sodium percentage (for kw) and organic C/urease activity ratio of soils were significantly associated with the overall rate of loss of organic C. It was inferred, therefore, that the relative inaccessibility and protection of organic matter against microbial and enzymic attack resulted in reduced organic C loss. Losses of organic C from the deeper layers (0-0.2 m, 0-0.3 m) were observed in Waco, Langlands-Logie, Cecilvale and Riverview soils, although generally rate of loss decreased with depth.

scholarly journals Long-term trends in pH in Japanese coastal waters

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miho Ishizu ◽  
Yasumasa Miyazawa ◽  
Tomohiko Tsunoda ◽  
Tsuneo Ono
Keyword(s):  
Coastal Waters ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Control Program ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Water Quality Data ◽  
Anthropogenic Carbon ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Term Data

Abstract. In recent decades, acidification of the open ocean has shown consistent increases. However, analysis of long-term data in coastal waters shows that the pH is highly variable because of coastal processes and anthropogenic carbon inputs. It is therefore important to understand how anthropogenic carbon inputs and other natural or anthropogenic factors influence the temporal trends in pH in coastal waters. Using water quality data collected at 1481 monitoring sites as part of the Water Pollution Control Program, we determined the long-term trends in pH in Japanese coastal waters at ambient temperature from 1978 to 2009. We found that pH decreased (i.e., acidification) at between 70 % and 75 % of the sites and increased (i.e., basification) at between 25 % and 30 % of the sites. The rate of decrease varied seasonally and was, on average, −0.0014 yr−1 in summer and −0.0024 yr−1 in winter, but with relatively large deviations from these average values. While the overall trends reflect acidification, watershed processes might also have contributed to the large variations in pH in coastal waters. The seasonal variation in the average pH trends reflects variability in warming trends, while regional differences in pH trends are partly related to heterotrophic water processes induced by nutrient loadings.

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