scholarly journals Influence of Atmospheric Circulation on the Baltic Sea Level Rise under the RCP8.5 Scenario over the 21st Century

Climate ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 71
Author(s):  
Sitar Karabil
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
21St Century ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
The Baltic

scholarly journals GIS analysis of effects of future Baltic Sea level rise on the island of Gotland, Sweden

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karin Ebert ◽  
Karin Ekstedt ◽  
Jerker Jarsjö
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Aquifers ◽  
Salt Water ◽  
Global Perspective ◽  
Salt Water Intrusion ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Water Intrusion ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. Future sea level rise as a consequence of global warming will affect the world's coastal regions. Even though the pace of sea level rise is not clear, the consequences will be severe and global. Commonly the effects of future sea level rise are investigated for relatively vulnerable development countries; however, a whole range of varying regions need to be considered in order to improve the understanding of global consequences. In this paper we investigate consequences of future sea level rise along the coast of the Baltic Sea island of Gotland, Sweden, with the aim to fill knowledge gaps regarding comparatively well-suited areas in non-development countries. We study both the quantity of loss of infrastructure, cultural and natural values for the case of a two metre sea level rise of the Baltic Sea, and the effects of climate change on seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers, causing the indirect effect of salt water intrusion in wells. We conduct a multi-criteria risk analysis by using Lidar data on land elevation and GIS-vulnerability mapping, which gives formerly unimaginable precision in the application of distance and elevation parameters. We find that in case of a 2 m sea level rise, 3 % of the land area of Gotland, corresponding to 99 km2, will be inundated. The features most strongly affected are items of touristic or nature values, including camping places, shore meadows, sea stack areas, and endangered plants and species habitats. In total, 231 out of 7354 wells will be directly inundated, and the number of wells in the high-risk zone for saltwater intrusion in wells will increase considerably. Some values will be irreversibly lost due to e.g. inundation of sea stacks and the passing of tipping points for sea water intrusion into coastal aquifers; others might simply be moved further inland, but this requires considerable economic means and prioritization. With nature tourism being one of the main income sources of Gotland, monitoring and planning is required to meet the changes. Seeing Gotland in a global perspective, this island shows that holistic multi-feature studies of future consequences of sea level rise are required, to identify overall consequences for individual regions.

scholarly journals Mechanisms of variability in decadal sea-level trends in the Baltic Sea over the 20th century

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1031-1046 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sitar Karabil ◽  
Eduardo Zorita ◽  
Birgit Hünicke
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Underlying Factor ◽  
Coastal Sea ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. Coastal sea-level trends in the Baltic Sea display decadal-scale variations around a long-term centennial trend. In this study, we analyse the spatial and temporal characteristics of the decadal trend variations and investigate the links between coastal sea-level trends and atmospheric forcing on a decadal timescale. For this analysis, we use monthly means of sea-level and climatic data sets. The sea-level data set is composed of long tide gauge records and gridded sea surface height (SSH) reconstructions. Climatic data sets are composed of sea-level pressure, air temperature, precipitation, evaporation, and climatic variability indices. The analysis indicates that atmospheric forcing is a driving factor of decadal sea-level trends. However, its effect is geographically heterogeneous. This impact is large in the northern and eastern regions of the Baltic Sea. In the southern Baltic Sea area, the impacts of atmospheric circulation on decadal sea-level trends are smaller. To identify the influence of the large-scale factors other than the effect of atmospheric circulation in the same season on Baltic Sea sea-level trends, we filter out the direct signature of atmospheric circulation for each season separately on the Baltic Sea level through a multivariate linear regression model and analyse the residuals of this regression model. These residuals hint at a common underlying factor that coherently drives the decadal sea-level trends in the whole Baltic Sea. We found that this underlying effect is partly a consequence of decadal precipitation trends in the Baltic Sea basin in the previous season. The investigation of the relation between the AMO index and sea-level trends implies that this detected underlying factor is not connected to oceanic forcing driven from the North Atlantic region.

scholarly journals Past and Future Sea Level Changes and Land Uplift in the Baltic Sea Seen by Geodetic Observations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Nordman ◽  
A. Peltola ◽  
M. Bilker-Koivula ◽  
S. Lahtinen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Relative Sea Level ◽  
Land Uplift ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract We have studied the land uplift and relative sea level changes in the Baltic Sea in northern Europe. To observe the past changes and land uplift, we have used continuous GNSS time series, campaign-wise absolute gravity measurements and continuous tide gauge time series. To predict the future, we have used probabilistic future scenarios tuned for the Baltic Sea. The area we are interested in is Kvarken archipelago in Finland and High Coast in Sweden. These areas form a UNESCO World Heritage Site, where the land uplift process and how it demonstrates itself are the main values. We provide here the latest numbers of land uplift for the area, the current rates from geodetic observations, and probabilistic scenarios for future relative sea level rise. The maximum land uplift rates in Fennoscandia are in the Bothnian Bay of the Baltic Sea, where the maximum values are currently on the order of 10 mm/year with respect to the geoid. During the last 100 years, the land has risen from the sea by approximately 80 cm in this area. Estimates of future relative sea level change have considerable uncertainty, with values for the year 2100 ranging from 75 cm of sea level fall (land emergence) to 30 cm of sea-level rise.

scholarly journals Impact of accelerated future global mean sea level rise on hypoxia in the Baltic Sea

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 163-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. E. M. Meier ◽  
A. Höglund ◽  
K. Eilola ◽  
E. Almroth-Rosell
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Global Mean

Geological, Paleoclimatological, and Archaeological History of the Baltic Sea Region Since the Last Glaciation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Harff ◽  
Hauke Jöns ◽  
Alar Rosentau
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Socioeconomic System ◽  
The Baltic

The correlation of climate variability; the change environment, in particular the change of coastlines; and the development of human societies during the last millennia can be studied exemplarily in the Baltic area. The retreat of the Scandinavian ice-sheet vertical crustal movement (glacio-isostatic adjustment), together with climatically controlled sea-level rise and a continuously warming atmosphere, determine a dramatic competition between different forcings of the environment that advancing humans are occupying step by step after the glaciation. These spatially and temporally changing life conditions require a stepwise adjustment of survival strategies. Changes in the natural environment can be reconstructed from sedimentary, biological proxy data and archaeological information. According to these reconstructions, the main shift in the Baltic area’s environment happened about 8,500 years before present (BP) when the Baltic Sea became permanently connected to the Atlantic Ocean via the Danish straits and the Sound, and changed the environment from lacustrine to brackish-marine conditions. Human reaction to environmental changes in prehistoric times is mainly reconstructed from remains of ancient settlements—onshore in the uplifting North and underwater in the South dominated by sea-level rise. According to the available data, the human response to environmental change was mainly passive before the successful establishment of agriculture. But it became increasingly active after people settled down and the socioeconomic system changed from hunter-gatherer to farming communities. This change, mainly triggered by the climatic change from the Holocene cool phase to the warming period, is clearly visible in Baltic basin sediment cores as a regime shift 6,000 years (BP). But the archaeological findings prove that the relatively abrupt environmental shift is reflected in the socioeconomic system by a period of transition when hunter-gatherer and farming societies lived in parallel for several centuries. After the Holocene warming, the permanent regression in the Northern Baltic Sea and the transgression in the South did affect the socioeconomic response of the Baltic coastal societies, who migrated downslope at the regressive coast and upslope at the transgressive coast. The following cooling phases, in particular the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA), are directly connected with migration and severe changes of the socioeconomic system. After millennia of passive reaction to climate and environmental changes, the Industrial Revolution finally enabled humans to influence and protect actively the environment, and in particular the Baltic Sea shore, by coastal constructions. On the other hand, this ability also affected climate and environment negatively because of the disturbance of the natural balance between climate, geosystem, and ecosystem.

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