scholarly journals Pseudo global warming simulations of the effects of climate change on extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosana Nieto Ferreira
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Extreme precipitation events under climate change in the Iberian Peninsula

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 1255-1278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susana Cardoso Pereira ◽  
Martinho Marta‐Almeida ◽  
Ana C. Carvalho ◽  
Alfredo Rocha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Quantifying the added value of downscaling in extreme precipitation attribution

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Eden ◽  
Bastien Dieppois
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Precipitation Event ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Statistical Correction ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>While there is a discernible global warming fingerprint in the increase observed daily temperature extremes, there is far greater uncertainty of the role played by anthropogenic climate change with regard to extreme precipitation. A logical progression of thought is that an increase in extreme precipitation results from the 7% increase in atmospheric moisture per 1°C global temperature increase predicted by the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation.  While this is supported by observations on the global scale, rates of extreme precipitation at smaller spatial and temporal scales are influenced to a far greater extent by atmospheric circulation and vertical stability in addition to local moisture availability. Many of these processes and other features of extreme precipitation events are not sufficiently represented in general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Meanwhile, limited observational networks mean that many short-term convective events are not accurately represented in the observational data.  </p><p>Errors and biases are common to all global and regional climate models, and many users of climate information require some form of statistical correction to improve the usefulness of model output. As so-called bias correction has become commonplace in climate impact research, its development has been hastened by a sustained debate regarding model correction in general leading to techniques that merge statistical correction and downscaling, represent random variability using stochasticity and are explicitly applicable to extremes. To date, attribution of extreme precipitation has not fully utilised the tools available from recent advances in bias correction, stochastic postprocessing and statistical downscaling. In the same way that GCMs are the most important tool in making climate change projections, understanding the degree to which the nature of a particular weather event has changed due to global warming requires long-term simulations of global climate from the pre-industrial era to the present day.  The lack of a correction and/or downscaling step in almost all precipitation event attribution methodologies is therefore surprising. </p><p>Here, we present a multi-scale attribution analysis of a sample of extreme precipitation events across Europe using a blend of observation- and model-based data. Attribution information generated using the raw output of global and regional climate model ensembles will be compared to that generated using the same set of models following a statistical postprocessing and downscaling step. Our conclusions will make recommendations for the value and wider application of downscaling methodologies in attribution science.</p>

scholarly journals Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 673-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Colmet-Daage ◽  
Emilia Sanchez-Gomez ◽  
Sophie Ricci ◽  
Cécile Llovel ◽  
Valérie Borrell Estupina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. The climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed using high-resolution EuroCORDEX and MedCORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, Lez and Aude located in France, and Muga located in northeastern Spain, and eight pairs of global and regional climate models are analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills are evaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle over historical period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under two emission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/future change coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over the 1981–2010 period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for most models over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastal regions in autumn and higher-order quantile. The ensemble mean and the spread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over the three catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing more evident changes, especially in the later part of the 21st century.

The effect of climate change on urban drainage: an evaluation based on regional climate model simulations

2006 ◽  
Vol 54 (6-7) ◽  
pp. 9-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Grum ◽  
A.T. Jørgensen ◽  
R.M. Johansen ◽  
J.J. Linde
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Urban Drainage ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Rainfall Extremes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Precipitation Events

That we are in a period of extraordinary rates of climate change is today evident. These climate changes are likely to impact local weather conditions with direct impacts on precipitation patterns and urban drainage. In recent years several studies have focused on revealing the nature, extent and consequences of climate change on urban drainage and urban runoff pollution issues. This study uses predictions from a regional climate model to look at the effects of climate change on extreme precipitation events. Results are presented in terms of point rainfall extremes. The analysis involves three steps: Firstly, hourly rainfall intensities from 16 point rain gauges are averaged to create a rain gauge equivalent intensity for a 25 × 25 km square corresponding to one grid cell in the climate model. Secondly, the differences between present and future in the climate model is used to project the hourly extreme statistics of the rain gauge surface into the future. Thirdly, the future extremes of the square surface area are downscaled to give point rainfall extremes of the future. The results and conclusions rely heavily on the regional model's suitability in describing extremes at time-scales relevant to urban drainage. However, in spite of these uncertainties, and others raised in the discussion, the tendency is clear: extreme precipitation events effecting urban drainage and causing flooding will become more frequent as a result of climate change.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Variability in Extreme Precipitation in China from Observations and Projections

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1089 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yifeng Peng ◽  
Xiang Zhao ◽  
Donghai Wu ◽  
Bijian Tang ◽  
Peipei Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
The Past ◽  
Spatiotemporal Characteristics ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Extreme precipitation events, which have intensified with global warming over the past several decades, will become more intense in the future according to model projections. Although many studies have been performed, the occurrence patterns for extreme precipitation events in past and future periods in China remain unresolved. Additionally, few studies have explained how extreme precipitation events developed over the past 58 years and how they will evolve in the next 90 years as global warming becomes much more serious. In this paper, we evaluated the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events using indices for the frequency, quantity, intensity, and proportion of extreme precipitation, which were proposed by the World Meteorological Organization. We simultaneously analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in China from 2011 to 2100 using data obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Despite the fixed threshold, 95th percentile precipitation values were also used as the extreme precipitation threshold to reduce the influence of various rainfall events caused by different geographic locations; then, eight extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) were calculated to evaluate extreme precipitation in China. We found that the spatial characteristics of the eight EPIs exhibited downward trends from south to north. In the periods 1960–2017 and 2011–2100, trends in the EPIs were positive, but there were differences between different regions. In the past 58 years, the extreme precipitation increased in the northwest, southeast, and the Tibet Plateau of China, while decreased in northern China. Almost all the trends of EPIs are positive in the next two periods (2011–2055 and 2056–2100) except for some EPIs, such as intensity of extreme precipitation, which decrease in southeastern China in the second period (2056–2100). This study suggests that the frequency of extreme precipitation events in China will progressively increase, which implies that a substantial burden will be placed on social economies and terrestrial ecological processes.

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Precipitation Extremities of Eastern Nepal in the Last Two Decades (1997–2016)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunil Subba ◽  
Yaoming Ma ◽  
Weiqiang Ma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

<p>In recent days there have been discussions regarding the impact of climate change and its vagaries of the weather, particularly concerning extreme events. Nepal, being a mountainous country, is more susceptible to precipitation extreme events and related hazards, which hinder the socioeconomic<br>development of the nation. In this regard, this study aimed to address this phenomenon for one of the most naturally and socioeconomically important regions of Nepal, namely, Eastern Nepal. The data were collected for the period of 1997 to 2016. The interdecadal comparison for two periods<br>(1997–2006 and 2007–2016) was maintained for the calculation of extreme precipitation indices as per recommended by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. Linear trends were calculated by using Mann‐Kendall and Sen's Slope estimator. The average annual precipitation was found to be decreasing at an alarming rate of −20 mm/year in the last two decades' tenure. In case of extreme precipitation events, consecutive dry days, one of the frequency indices, showed a solo increase in its trend (mostly significant). Meanwhile, all the intensity indices of extreme precipitation showed decreasing trends (mostly insignificant). Thus, it can be concluded that Eastern Nepal has witnessed some significant drier days in the last two decades, as the events of heavy, very heavy, extremely heavy precipitation events, and annual wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT) were found to be decreasing. The same phenomena were also seen in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 V7 satellite precipitation product for whole Nepal.</p>

scholarly journals Assessing the Use of Satellite-Based Estimates and High-Resolution Precipitation Datasets for the Study of Extreme Precipitation Events over the Iberian Peninsula

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1688 ◽  
Author(s):  
Riccardo Hénin ◽  
Margarida Liberato ◽  
Alexandre Ramos ◽  
Célia Gouveia
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Medium Range Weather Forecast ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

An assessment of daily accumulated precipitation during extreme precipitation events (EPEs) occurring over the period 2000–2008 in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) is presented. Different sources for precipitation data, namely ERA-Interim and ERA5 reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), both in near-real-time and post-real-time releases, are compared with the best ground-based high-resolution (0.2° × 0.2°) gridded precipitation dataset available for the IP (IB02). In this study, accuracy metrics are analysed for different quartiles of daily precipitation amounts, and additional insights are provided for a subset of EPEs extracted from an objective ranking of extreme precipitation during the extended winter period (October to March) over the IP. Results show that both reanalysis and multi-satellite datasets overestimate (underestimate) daily precipitation sums for the least (most) extreme events over the IP. In addition, it is shown that the TRMM TMPA precipitation estimates from the near-real-time product may be considered for EPEs assessment over these latitudes. Finally, it is found that the new ERA5 reanalysis accounts for large improvements over ERA-Interim and it also outperforms the satellite-based datasets.

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