scholarly journals Statistical Approaches for Forecasting Primary Air Pollutants: A Review

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 686
Author(s):  
Kuo Liao ◽  
Xiaohui Huang ◽  
Haofei Dang ◽  
Yin Ren ◽  
Shudi Zuo ◽  
...  

Air pollutant forecasting can be used to quantitatively estimate pollutant reduction trends. Combining bibliometrics with the evolutionary tree and Markov chain methods can achieve a superior quantitative analysis of research hotspots and trends. In this work, we adopted a bibliometric method to review the research status of statistical prediction methods for air pollution, used evolutionary trees to analyze the development trend of such research, and applied the Markov chain to predict future research trends for major air pollutants. The results indicate that papers mainly focused on the effects of air pollution on human diseases, urban pollution exposure models, and land use regression (LUR) methods. Particulate matter (PM), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and ozone (O3) were the most investigated pollutants. Artificial neural network (ANN) methods were preferred in studies of PM and O3, while LUR were more widely used in studies of NOx. Additionally, multi-method hybrid techniques gradually became the most widely used approach between 2010 and 2018. In the future, the statistical prediction of air pollution is expected to be based on a mixed method to simultaneously predict multiple pollutants, and the interaction between pollutants will be the most challenging aspect of research on air pollution prediction. The research results summarized in this paper provide technical support for the accurate prediction of atmospheric pollution and the emergency management of regional air quality.

Author(s):  
Qiwei Yu ◽  
Liqiang Zhang ◽  
Kun Hou ◽  
Jingwen Li ◽  
Suhong Liu ◽  
...  

Exposure to air pollution has been suggested to be associated with an increased risk of women’s health disorders. However, it remains unknown to what extent changes in ambient air pollution affect gynecological cancer. In our case–control study, the logistic regression model was combined with the restricted cubic spline to examine the association of short-term exposure to air pollution with gynecological cancer events using the clinical data of 35,989 women in Beijing from December 2008 to December 2017. We assessed the women’s exposure to air pollutants using the monitor located nearest to each woman’s residence and working places, adjusting for age, occupation, ambient temperature, and ambient humidity. The adjusted odds ratios (ORs) were examined to evaluate gynecologic cancer risk in six time windows (Phase 1–Phase 6) of women’s exposure to air pollutants (PM2.5, CO, O3, and SO2) and the highest ORs were found in Phase 4 (240 days). Then, the higher adjusted ORs were found associated with the increased concentrations of each pollutant (PM2.5, CO, O3, and SO2) in Phase 4. For instance, the adjusted OR of gynecological cancer risk for a 1.0-mg m−3 increase in CO exposures was 1.010 (95% CI: 0.881–1.139) below 0.8 mg m−3, 1.032 (95% CI: 0.871–1.194) at 0.8–1.0 mg m−3, 1.059 (95% CI: 0.973–1.145) at 1.0–1.4 mg m−3, and 1.120 (95% CI: 0.993–1.246) above 1.4 mg m−3. The ORs calculated in different air pollution levels accessed us to identify the nonlinear association between women’s exposure to air pollutants (PM2.5, CO, O3, and SO2) and the gynecological cancer risk. This study supports that the gynecologic risks associated with air pollution should be considered in improved public health preventive measures and policymaking to minimize the dangerous effects of air pollution.


2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gavin Sun ◽  
Glen Hazlewood ◽  
Sasha Bernatsky ◽  
Gilaad G. Kaplan ◽  
Bertus Eksteen ◽  
...  

Objective. Environmental risk factors, such as air pollution, have been studied in relation to the risk of development of rheumatic diseases. We performed a systematic literature review to summarize the existing knowledge.Methods. MEDLINE (1946 to September 2016) and EMBASE (1980 to 2016, week 37) databases were searched using MeSH terms and keywords to identify cohort, case-control, and case cross-over studies reporting risk estimates for the development of select rheumatic diseases in relation to exposure of measured air pollutants (n=8). We extracted information on the population sample and study period, method of case and exposure determination, and the estimate of association.Results. There was no consistent evidence of an increased risk for the development of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with exposure to NO2, SO2, PM2.5, or PM10. Case-control studies in systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases (SARDs) indicated higher odds of diagnosis with increasing PM2.5exposure, as well as an increased relative risk for juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) in American children <5.5 years of age. There was no association with SARDs and NO2exposure.Conclusion. There is evidence for a possible association between air pollutant exposures and the development of SARDs and JIA, but relationships with other rheumatic diseases are less clear.


Author(s):  
B. Yorkor ◽  
T. G. Leton ◽  
J. N. Ugbebor

This study investigated the temporal variations of air pollutant concentrations in Ogoni area, Niger Delta, Nigeria. The study used hourly data measured over 8 hours for 12 months at selected locations within the area. The analyses were based on time series and time variations techniques in Openair packages of R programming software. The variations of air pollutant concentrations by time of day and days of week were simulated. Hours of the day, days of the week and monthly variations were graphically simulated. Variations in the mean concentrations of air pollutants by time were determined at 95 % confidence intervals. Sulphur dioxide (SO2), Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ground level Ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations exceeded permissible standards. Air pollutant concentrations showed increase in January, February, November and December compared to other months. Simulation showed that air pollutants varied significantly by hours-of-the-day and days-of-the-week and months-of-the-year. Analysis of temporal variability revealed that air pollutant concentrations increased during weekdays and decreased during weekends. The temporal variability of air pollutants in Ogoni area showed that anthropogenic activities were the main sources of air pollution in the area, therefore further studies are required to determine air pollutant dispersion pattern and evaluation the potential sources of air pollution in the area.


Author(s):  
Han Cao ◽  
Bingxiao Li ◽  
Tianlun Gu ◽  
Xiaohui Liu ◽  
Kai Meng ◽  
...  

Evidence regarding the effects of environmental factors on COVID-19 transmission is mixed. We aimed to explore the associations of air pollutants and meteorological factors with COVID-19 confirmed cases during the outbreak period throughout China. The number of COVID-19 confirmed cases, air pollutant concentrations, and meteorological factors in China from January 25 to February 29, 2020, (36 days) were extracted from authoritative electronic databases. The associations were estimated for a single-day lag as well as moving averages lag using generalized additive mixed models. Region-specific analyses and meta-analysis were conducted in 5 selected regions from the north to south of China with diverse air pollution levels and weather conditions and sufficient sample size. Nonlinear concentration–response analyses were performed. An increase of each interquartile range in PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, O3, and CO at lag4 corresponded to 1.40 (1.37–1.43), 1.35 (1.32–1.37), 1.01 (1.00–1.02), 1.08 (1.07–1.10), 1.28 (1.27–1.29), and 1.26 (1.24–1.28) ORs of daily new cases, respectively. For 1°C, 1%, and 1 m/s increase in temperature, relative humidity, and wind velocity, the ORs were 0.97 (0.97–0.98), 0.96 (0.96–0.97), and 0.94 (0.92–0.95), respectively. The estimates of PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and all meteorological factors remained significantly after meta-analysis for the five selected regions. The concentration–response relationships showed that higher concentrations of air pollutants and lower meteorological factors were associated with daily new cases increasing. Higher air pollutant concentrations and lower temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity may favor COVID-19 transmission. Controlling ambient air pollution, especially for PM2.5, PM10, NO2, may be an important component of reducing risk of COVID-19 infection. In addition, as winter months are arriving in China, the meteorological factors may play a negative role in prevention. Therefore, it is significant to implement the public health control measures persistently in case another possible pandemic.


Author(s):  
Shang-Shyue Tsai ◽  
Hui-Fen Chiu ◽  
Chun-Yuh Yang

Very few studies have been performed to determine whether there is a relationship between air pollution and increases in hospitalizations for peptic ulcer, and for those that have occurred, their results may not be completely relevant to Taiwan, where the mixture of ambient air pollutants differ. We performed a time-stratified case-crossover study to investigate the possible association between air pollutant levels and hospital admissions for peptic ulcer in Taipei, Taiwan. To do this, we collected air pollution data from Taiwan's Environmental Protection Agency and hospital admissions for peptic ulcer data for the years 2009–2013 from Taiwan's National Health Insurance's research database. We used conditional logistic regression to analyze the possible association between the two, taking temperature and relative humidity into account. Risk was expressed as odds ratios and significance was expressed with 95% confidence intervals. In our single pollutant model, peptic ulcer admissions were significantly associated with all pollutants (PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2, CO, and O3) on warm days (>23 °C). On cool days (<23 °C), peptic ulcer admissions were significantly associated with PM10, NO2, and O3. In our two-pollutant models, peptic ulcer admissions were significantly associated NO2 and O3 when combined with each of the other pollutants on warm days, and with PM10, NO2, and O3 on cool days. It was concluded that the likelihood of peptic ulcer hospitalizations in Taipei rose significantly with increases in air pollutants during the study period.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Wen-jie Zou ◽  
Tai-Yu Lin ◽  
Yung-ho Chiu ◽  
Ting Teng ◽  
Kuei Ying Huang

Finding the balance between economic development and environmental protection is a major problem for many countries around the world. Air pollution caused by economic growth has caused serious damage to humans’ living environment, and as improving energy and resource efficiencies is the first priority, many countries are targeting to move towards a sustainable environment and economic development. This study uses the modified dynamic SBM (slack-based measure) model to explore the economic efficiency and air pollutants emission efficiency in Taiwan’s counties and cities from 2012 to 2015 by taking labor, motor vehicles, and electricity consumption as inputs and average disposable income as output. Particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen oxide emissions (NO2), and sulfur oxide emissions (SO2) are undesirable outputs, whereas factory fixed assets are a carry-over variable, and the results show the following: (1) the regions with the best overall efficiency between 2012 and 2015 include Taipei City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City, and Taitung County; (2) in counties and cities with poor overall efficiency performance, the average disposable income per household has no significant relationship with air pollutant emissions; (3) in counties and cities where overall efficiency is poor, the average efficiency of each household’s disposable income is small; and (4) except for the five counties and cities with the best overall performance, the three air pollutants in the other fourteen counties and cities are high. Overall, the air pollution of most areas needs improvement.


2002 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 497-513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junfeng (Jim) Zhang ◽  
Paul J. Lioy

The air pollution problem can be depicted as a system consisting of several basic components: source, concentration, exposure, dose, and adverse effects. Exposure, the contact between an agent (e.g., an air pollutant) and a target (e.g., a human respiratory tract), is the key to linking the pollution source and health effects. Human exposure to air pollutants depends on exposure concentration and exposure duration. Exposure concentration is the concentration of a pollutant at a contact boundary, which usually refers to the human breathing zone. However, ambient concentrations of regulated pollutants at monitoring sites have been measured in practice to represent actual exposure. This can be a valid practice if the pollutants are ones that are predominantly generated outdoors and if the monitoring sites are appropriately selected to reflect where people are. Results from many exposure studies indicate that people are very likely to receive the greatest exposure to many toxic air pollutants not outside but inside places such as homes, offices, and automobiles. For many of these pollutants, major sources of exposure can be quite different from major sources of emission. This is because a large emission source can have a very small value of exposure effectiveness, i.e., the fraction of pollutant released from a source that actually reaches the human breathing zone. Exposure data are crucial to risk management decisions for setting priorities, selecting cost-effective approaches to preventing or reducing risks, and evaluating risk mitigation efforts. Measurement or estimate of exposure is essential but often inadequately addressed in environmental epidemiologic studies. Exposure can be quantified using direct or indirect measurement methods, depending upon the purpose of exposure assessment and the availability of relevant data. The rapidly developing battery and electronic technologies as well as advancements in molecular biology are expected to accelerate the improvement of current methods and the development of new methods for future exposure assessment.


Author(s):  
Maria-Viola Martikainen ◽  
Päivi Aakko-Saksa ◽  
Lenie van den Broek ◽  
Flemming R. Cassee ◽  
Roxana O. Carare ◽  
...  

The adverse effects of air pollutants on the respiratory and cardiovascular systems are unquestionable. However, in recent years, indications of effects beyond these organ systems have become more evident. Traffic-related air pollution has been linked with neurological diseases, exacerbated cognitive dysfunction, and Alzheimer’s disease. However, the exact air pollutant compositions and exposure scenarios leading to these adverse health effects are not known. Although several components of air pollution may be at play, recent experimental studies point to a key role of ultrafine particles (UFPs). While the importance of UFPs has been recognized, almost nothing is known about the smallest fraction of UFPs, and only >23 nm emissions are regulated in the EU. Moreover, the role of the semivolatile fraction of the emissions has been neglected. The Transport-Derived Ultrafines and the Brain Effects (TUBE) project will increase knowledge on harmful ultrafine air pollutants, as well as semivolatile compounds related to adverse health effects. By including all the major current combustion and emission control technologies, the TUBE project aims to provide new information on the adverse health effects of current traffic, as well as information for decision makers to develop more effective emission legislation. Most importantly, the TUBE project will include adverse health effects beyond the respiratory system; TUBE will assess how air pollution affects the brain and how air pollution particles might be removed from the brain. The purpose of this report is to describe the TUBE project, its background, and its goals.


Author(s):  
Omar Kairan ◽  
Nur Nasehah Zainudin ◽  
Nurul Hasya Mohd Hanafiah ◽  
Nur Emylia Arissa Mohd Jafri ◽  
Fukayhah Fatiha @Suhami ◽  
...  

Air pollution has become an issue at all rates in the world. In Malaysia, there is a system is known as air quality index (API) used to indicate the overall air quality in the country where the air pollutants include or the new ambient air quality standard are sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3) and particulate matter with size less than 10 (PM10). The concentration levels of the air pollutants were said to be affected by the monsoon changes. Therefore, this study is conducted to examine the existence of temporal variations of each air pollutant then identify the differences of each air pollutants concentration in temporal variations. This study uses secondary data where data that has been retrieved from the Department of Environment (DOE) where it is data of air pollution specifically for Kota Bharu, kelantan records. Hierarchical agglomerative cluster analysis was conducted to group monthly air quality. As a conclusion, the study can conclude that the five air pollutants grouped into several different monthly clusters mostly representing the two main monsoon seasons. Mostly air pollutant varied accordingly towards the monsoon season. During the southwestern monsoon, air pollutant concentration tends to higher compare to the northeastern monsoon with mostly due to meteorological factors.


Author(s):  
Xuan Zhang ◽  
Lulu Zhang ◽  
Lu Yang ◽  
Quanyu Zhou ◽  
Wanli Xing ◽  
...  

Background: Background sites are mainly affected by long-range-transported air pollutants, resulting in potential adverse effects on local atmospheric environments. A 4–5 year observational study was conducted to illustrate the air pollution profile at the Kanazawa University Wajima air monitoring station (KUWAMS), an ideal remote background site in Japan. Methods: Nine polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the particulate phase and various air pollutants were continuously monitored for 4–5 years. Diagnostic ratios of PAHs and back-trajectory analysis were applied to trace the possible sources of the air pollutants collected at the sampling site. Results: The atmospheric concentration of PAHs in the atmosphere at the site decreased from 2014 to 2019, benefit from the predominant air pollution control policy in China and Japan. Common air pollutants including sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ozone, methane (CH4), and non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC) were detected in low concentrations from 2016 to 2019, while ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM2.5, PM with a diameter less than 2.5 μm) were present in high levels that exceeded the Japanese standards. Most air pollutants peaked in spring and showed evident diurnal variations in spring and summer. Conclusions: This is the first study to clarify the atmospheric behaviors of multiple air pollutants at a background site in Japan. Significant external air pollutant impact and unneglectable air pollution were demonstrated at KUWAMS, indicating the importance of studying atmospheric pollution at remote sites.


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