scholarly journals Influence of Climate Variability on Soybean Yield in MATOPIBA, Brazil

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1130
Author(s):  
Layara Reis ◽  
Cláudio Moisés Santos e Silva ◽  
Bergson Bezerra ◽  
Pedro Mutti ◽  
Maria Helena Spyrides ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Yield Losses ◽  
Agricultural Risk ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Sowing Dates ◽  
Culture Model

The objective of this study was to analyze the influence of large-scale atmospheric–oceanic mechanisms (El Niño–Southern Oscillation—ENSO and the inter-hemispheric thermal gradient of the Tropical Atlantic) on the spatial–temporal variability of soy yield in MATOPIBA. The following, available in the literature, were used: (i) daily meteorological data from 1980 to 2013 (Xavier et al., 2016); (ii) (chemical, physical, and hydric) properties of the predominant soil class in the area of interest, available at the World Inventory of Soil Emission Potentials platform; (iii) genetic coefficients of soybean cultivar with Relative Maturity Group adapted to the conditions of the region. The simulations were performed using the CROPGRO-Soybean culture model of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) system, considering sowing dates between the months of October and December of 33 agricultural years, as well as for three meteorological scenarios (climatology, favorable-wet, and unfavorable-dry). Results showed that the different climate scenarios can alter the spatial patterns of agricultural risk. In the favorable-wet scenario, there was a greater probability of an increase in yield and a greater favorable window for sowing soybean, while in the unfavorable-dry scenario these values were lower. However, considering the unfavorable-dry scenario, in some areas the reduction in yield losses will depend on the chosen planting date.

scholarly journals Analysis and quantification of ENSO-linked changes in the tropical Atlantic cloud vertical distribution using 14 years of MODIS observations

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (21) ◽  
pp. 13535-13546
Author(s):  
Nils Madenach ◽  
Cintia Carbajal Henken ◽  
René Preusker ◽  
Odran Sourdeval ◽  
Jürgen Fischer
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Vertical Distribution ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Cloud Amount ◽  
Cloud Fraction ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
High Cloud

Abstract. A total of 14 years (September 2002 to September 2016) of Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) monthly mean cloud data are used to quantify possible changes in the cloud vertical distribution over the tropical Atlantic. For the analysis multiple linear regression techniques are used. For the investigated time period significant linear changes were found in the domain-averaged cloud-top height (CTH) (−178 m per decade), the high-cloud fraction (HCF) (−0.0006 per decade), and the low-cloud amount (0.001 per decade). The interannual variability of the time series (especially CTH and HCF) is highly influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Separating the time series into two phases, we quantified the linear change associated with the transition from more La Niña-like conditions to a phase with El Niño conditions (Phase 2) and vice versa (Phase 1). The transition from negative to positive ENSO conditions was related to a decrease in total cloud fraction (TCF) (−0.018 per decade; not significant) due to a reduction in the high-cloud amount (−0.024 per decade; significant). Observed anomalies in the mean CTH were found to be mainly caused by changes in HCF rather than by anomalies in the height of cloud tops themselves. Using the large-scale vertical motion ω at 500 hPa (from ERA-Interim ECMWF reanalysis data), the observed anomalies were linked to ENSO-induced changes in the atmospheric large-scale dynamics. The most significant and largest changes were found in regions with strong large-scale upward movements near the Equator. Despite the fact that with passive imagers such as MODIS it is not possible to vertically resolve clouds, this study shows the great potential for large-scale analysis of possible changes in the cloud vertical distribution due to the changing climate by using vertically resolved cloud cover and linking those changes to large-scale dynamics using other observations or model data.

scholarly journals Climate-Induced Yield Losses for Winter Wheat in Henan Province, North China and Their Relationship with Circulation Anomalies

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 3341
Author(s):  
Hui Zheng ◽  
Jin Huang ◽  
Jiadong Chen
Keyword(s):  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
North China ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Henan Province ◽  
Western Hemisphere ◽  
Yield Losses ◽  
Yield Data ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Indices

Risk analysis using climate-induced yield losses (CIYL) extracted from long-term yield data have been recognized in China, but the research focusing on the time-series characteristics of risk and the circulation signals behind yield losses still remains incomplete. To address these challenges, a case study on winter wheat production in Henan province, north China was conducted by using annual series of yield in 17 cities during 1988–2017 and monthly series of 15 types of large-scale oceanic-atmospheric circulation indices (LOACI). A comprehensive risk assessment method was established by combining the intensity, frequency, and variability of CIYL and principal component analysis (PCA). The results showed that the westernmost Henan was identified as the area of higher-risk. PCA and Mann–Kendall trend tests indicated that the southern, northern, eastern, and western areas in Henan province were classified as having different annual CIYL variations in these four sub-regions; the decreasing trend of CIYL in northern area was the most notable. Since the 2000s, a significant decline in CIYL was found in each sub-region. It should be noted that the key LOACI, which includes Tropical Northern Atlantic Index (TNA), Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP), and Southern oscillation index (SOI), indicated significant CIYL anomalies in some months. Furthermore, the regional yield simulation results using linear regression for the independent variables of year and various LOACI were satisfactory, with the average relative error ranging from 3.48% to 6.87%.

scholarly journals The Impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Temperature: A Case Study in Kuching, Sarawak

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 289-297
Author(s):  
Ricky Anak Kemarau ◽  
Oliver Valentine Eboy
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Building Materials ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
The Impact

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event is a climate event that has an impact on the world climate. The effects of ENSO are often associated with prolonged droughts and floods since 1980 following global climate change. In addition to causing flooding and drought. Indirectly, the occurrence of ENSO causes health problems, environmental destruction, affecting economic activities such as agriculture and fisheries. Many studies on ENSO have been conducted. However, there is still a lack of research on the effect of ENSO on temperature in local knowledge areas, especially urban areas because the urban environment especially building materials that can absorb and release heat. In addition, previous studies have focused on large-scale areas. Beside that there still gap to understand and increase knowledge about the effect of ENSO on local temperatures, especially in urban areas. This study uses meteorological data and Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) from 1988 to 2019. This study found that the occurrence of ENSO has an effect on the value of daily temperature but differs based on the value of the ONI index. In addition, this study uses linear regression in predicting the effect of ENSO on temperature. The results of this study are useful to those responsible for understanding the impact of ENSO on temperature in urban areas to provide infrastructure in reducing the impact of ENSO as well as adjustment measures during the occurrence of ENSO.

scholarly journals The Fidelity of NCEP CFS Seasonal Hindcasts over Nordeste

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (2) ◽  
pp. 618-627 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vasubandhu Misra ◽  
Yuning Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Small Region ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Tropical Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Scale Error

Abstract The fidelity of the interannual variability of precipitation over Nordeste is examined using the suite of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) seasonal hindcasts. These are coupled ocean–land–atmosphere multiseasonal integrations. It is shown that the Nordeste rainfall variability in the season of February–April has relatively low skill in the CFS seasonal hindcasts. Although Nordeste is a comparatively small region in the northeast of Brazil, the analysis indicates that the model has a large-scale error in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The CFS exhibits a widespread El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. As a consequence of this remote ENSO forcing, the CFS builds an erroneous meridional SST gradient in the tropical Atlantic that is known from observations to be a critical forcing for the rainfall variability over Nordeste.

Climatology of Vertical Wind Shear over the Tropical Atlantic

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (12) ◽  
pp. 2969-2983 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anantha R. Aiyyer ◽  
Chris Thorncroft
Keyword(s):  
Wind Shear ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Sahel Precipitation

Abstract The spatiotemporal variability of the 200–850-hPa vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic is examined for a period of 46 yr. This work extends and updates past studies by considering a longer data record as well as a tropospheric-deep measure of vertical wind shear. Composite fields are constructed to illustrate the spatial pattern of the large-scale circulation associated with the mean and extreme cases of vertical shear within the tropical Atlantic. The contemporaneous relationship of vertical shear with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Sahel precipitation are also examined. While the ENSO–shear correlation appears to have slightly strengthened during the past decade, the Sahel–shear correlation has become significantly degraded. A combined empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the zonal and meridional components of the vertical shear reveals interannual and multidecadal modes. The leading EOF exhibits mainly interannual variability and is highly correlated with ENSO. The second EOF is associated with a multidecadal temporal evolution and is correlated with Sahel precipitation. Both EOFs correlate at the same level with tropical cyclones in the main development region of the tropical Atlantic.

Aerosol-Induced Large-Scale Variability in Precipitation over the Tropical Atlantic

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (19) ◽  
pp. 4970-4988 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingfeng Huang ◽  
Chidong Zhang ◽  
Joseph M. Prospero
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Weather Factors ◽  
Light Rain ◽  
The North ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Rain Rates

Abstract Multiyear satellite observations are used to document a relationship between the large-scale variability in precipitation over the tropical Atlantic and aerosol traced to African sources. During boreal winter and spring there is a significant reduction in precipitation south of the Atlantic marine intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) during months when aerosol concentrations are anomalously high over a large domain of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This reduction cannot be linearly attributed to known climate factors such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and zonal and meridional modes of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature or to meteorological factors such as water vapor. The fractional variance in precipitation related to aerosol is about 12% of the total interannual variance, which is of the same order of magnitude as that related to each of the known climate and weather factors. A backward trajectory analysis confirms the African origin of aerosols that directly affect the changes in precipitation. The reduction in mean precipitation mainly comes from decreases in moderate rain rates (10–20 mm day−1), while light rain (<10 mm day−1) can fluctuate in the opposite direction. The results cannot be readily explained in terms of wet deposition or uncertainties in satellite retrievals, and suggest that the observations demonstrate clearly identifiable effects of African aerosol on large-scale variability in precipitation in the tropical Atlantic region.

Bullying, School Violence, and Climate in Evolving Contexts

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ron Avi Astor ◽  
Rami Benbenisthty
Keyword(s):  
School Violence ◽  
School Safety ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ecological Model ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Teacher Student ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
New Research

Since 2005, the bullying, school violence, and school safety literatures have expanded dramatically in content, disciplines, and empirical studies. However, with this massive expansion of research, there is also a surprising lack of theoretical and empirical direction to guide efforts on how to advance our basic science and practical applications of this growing scientific area of interest. Parallel to this surge in interest, cultural norms, media coverage, and policies to address school safety and bullying have evolved at a remarkably quick pace over the past 13 years. For example, behaviors and populations that just a decade ago were not included in the school violence, bullying, and school safety discourse are now accepted areas of inquiry. These include, for instance, cyberbullying, sexting, social media shaming, teacher–student and student–teacher bullying, sexual harassment and assault, homicide, and suicide. Populations in schools not previously explored, such as lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer students and educators and military- and veteran-connected students, become the foci of new research, policies, and programs. As a result, all US states and most industrialized countries now have a complex quilt of new school safety and bullying legislation and policies. Large-scale research and intervention funding programs are often linked to these policies. This book suggests an empirically driven unifying model that brings together these previously distinct literatures. This book presents an ecological model of school violence, bullying, and safety in evolving contexts that integrates all we have learned in the 13 years, and suggests ways to move forward.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal associations of albacore CPUEs in the Northeastern Pacific with regional SST and climate environmental variables

2014 ◽  
Vol 71 (7) ◽  
pp. 1717-1727 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Jason Phillips ◽  
Lorenzo Ciannelli ◽  
Richard D. Brodeur ◽  
William G. Pearcy ◽  
John Childers
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Environmental Variability ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Spatial Dynamics ◽  
Catch Per Unit Effort ◽  
Variable Effect ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
The North ◽  
Additive Mixed Models

Abstract This study investigated the spatial distribution of juvenile North Pacific albacore (Thunnus alalunga) in relation to local environmental variability [i.e. sea surface temperature (SST)], and two large-scale indices of climate variability, [the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index (MEI)]. Changes in local and climate variables were correlated with 48 years of albacore troll catch per unit effort (CPUE) in 1° latitude/longitude cells, using threshold Generalized Additive Mixed Models (tGAMMs). Model terms were included to account for non-stationary and spatially variable effects of the intervening covariates on albacore CPUE. Results indicate that SST had a positive and spatially variable effect on albacore CPUE, with increasingly positive effects to the North, while PDO had an overall negative effect. Although albacore CPUE increased with SST both before and after a threshold year of 1986, such effect geographically shifted north after 1986. This is the first study to demonstrate the non-stationary spatial dynamics of albacore tuna, linked with a major shift of the North Pacific. Results imply that if ocean temperatures continue to increase, US west coast fisher communities reliant on commercial albacore fisheries are likely to be negatively affected in the southern areas but positively affected in the northern areas, where current albacore landings are highest.

scholarly journals Effects of Climatic Drivers and Teleconnections on Late 20th Century Trends in Spring Freshet of Four Major Arctic-Draining Rivers

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 179
Author(s):  
Roxanne Ahmed ◽  
Terry Prowse ◽  
Yonas Dibike ◽  
Barrie Bonsal
Keyword(s):  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Late 20Th Century ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Spring Freshet ◽  
Climatic Drivers

Spring freshet is the dominant annual discharge event in all major Arctic draining rivers with large contributions to freshwater inflow to the Arctic Ocean. Research has shown that the total freshwater influx to the Arctic Ocean has been increasing, while at the same time, the rate of change in the Arctic climate is significantly higher than in other parts of the globe. This study assesses the large-scale atmospheric and surface climatic conditions affecting the magnitude, timing and regional variability of the spring freshets by analyzing historic daily discharges from sub-basins within the four largest Arctic-draining watersheds (Mackenzie, Ob, Lena and Yenisei). Results reveal that climatic variations closely match the observed regional trends of increasing cold-season flows and earlier freshets. Flow regulation appears to suppress the effects of climatic drivers on freshet volume but does not have a significant impact on peak freshet magnitude or timing measures. Spring freshet characteristics are also influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, particularly in their positive phases. The majority of significant relationships are found in unregulated stations. This study provides a key insight into the climatic drivers of observed trends in freshet characteristics, whilst clarifying the effects of regulation versus climate at the sub-basin scale.

scholarly journals Spurious North Tropical Atlantic precursors to El Niño

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenjun Zhang ◽  
Feng Jiang ◽  
Malte F. Stuecker ◽  
Fei-Fei Jin ◽  
Axel Timmermann
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
The North ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Primary Driver ◽  
North Tropical Atlantic

AbstractThe El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the primary driver of year-to-year global climate variability, is known to influence the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST), especially during boreal spring season. Focusing on statistical lead-lag relationships, previous studies have proposed that interannual NTA SST variability can also feed back on ENSO in a predictable manner. However, these studies did not properly account for ENSO’s autocorrelation and the fact that the SST in the Atlantic and Pacific, as well as their interaction are seasonally modulated. This can lead to misinterpretations of causality and the spurious identification of Atlantic precursors for ENSO. Revisiting this issue under consideration of seasonality, time-varying ENSO frequency, and greenhouse warming, we demonstrate that the cross-correlation characteristics between NTA SST and ENSO, are consistent with a one-way Pacific to Atlantic forcing, even though the interpretation of lead-lag relationships may suggest otherwise.

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