scholarly journals Evaluating Land Suitability and Potential Climate Change Impacts on Alfalfa (Medicago sativa) Production in Ethiopia

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1124
Author(s):  
Sintayehu Alemayehu ◽  
Essayas K. Ayana ◽  
Yihun T. Dile ◽  
Teferi Demissie ◽  
Yohannes Yimam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Land Suitability ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Fodder Production ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Suitable Land

Ethiopia has the largest livestock population in Africa with 35 million tropical livestock units. The livestock system relies on natural open grazing which is affected by frequent droughts. However, little research exists that studies the suitability of the biophysical environment for fodder production and the risks due to climate change. The main objectives of the study are to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on land suitability for alfalfa production in Ethiopia and to assess the extent of irrigation requirements for alfalfa growing under the adverse climate change projections. The impact of climate change on land suitability for alfalfa was evaluated using projected changes in rainfall and temperature based on three global circulation models (CCSM4, HadGEM2-AO, and MIROC5). A multi-criteria evaluation in GIS that uses biophysical, climatic and topography factors was applied to identify the suitable land. The highly suitable area under current climate scenarios covered ~472,000 km2, while moderately suitable and marginally suitable covered ~397,000 km2 and ~16,200 km2, respectively. The projected climate alters the suitable land for fodder production across Ethiopia. Expansion of suitable land occurred in the highlands where climate scenarios predict an increase in temperature and precipitation. Dryland regions showed a rainfall deficit for the three model projections. The research provides guidelines for growing alfalfa in Ethiopia considering ecological and climatic variability.

scholarly journals Projected Climate Change Impacts on Hurricane Storm Surge Inundation in the Coastal United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeane Camelo ◽  
Talea L. Mayo ◽  
Ethan D. Gutmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Translation Speed ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Average Change ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Storm Characteristics ◽  
The Impact

The properties of hurricanes directly influence storm surges; however, the implications of projected changes to the climate are unclear. Here, we simulate the storm surges of historical storms under present day and end of century climate scenarios to assess the impact of climate change on storm surge inundation. We simulate 21 storms that impacted the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Coasts of the continental U.S. from 2000 to 2013. We find that the volume of inundation increases for 14 storms and the average change for all storms is +36%. The extent of inundation increases for 13 storms, and the average change for all storms is +25%. Notable increases in inundation occur near Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, the west coast of Florida, the Carolinas, and New Jersey. Our calculations of inundation volume and extent suggest that at the end of the century, we can expect hurricanes to produce larger storm surge magnitudes in concentrated areas, as opposed to surges with lower magnitudes that are widespread. We examine changes in maximum wind speed, minimum central pressure, translation speed, and radius of the 33 ms−1 wind to assess the impacts of individual storm characteristics on storm surge. We find that there is no single storm characteristic that directly relates to storm surge inundation or its climate induced changes. Even when all the characteristics are considered together, the resulting influences are difficult to anticipate. This is likely due to the complexity of the hydrodynamics and interactions with local geography. This illustrates that even as climate change research advances and more is known about projected impacts to hurricanes, implications for storm surge will be difficult to predict without explicit numerical simulation.

scholarly journals Climate Change impacts the <i>Water Highway</i> project in Morocco

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabil El Moçayd ◽  
Suchul Kang ◽  
Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The North ◽  
Local Water ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The hydrology of Morocco is characterized by a significant spatial variability. Precipitation follows a sharp gradient decreasing from the North to the South. In order to redistribute water, a project is proposed to transfer 860 million m3 per year from the wet north to the arid southern regions, {Water Highway}. The present study aims to address the viability of the project including the effects of climate change in the watersheds located in the North. We perform Regional Climate Model (RCMs) simulations over the study region using boundary conditions from five different global circulation models (GCMs) and following two emissions scenarios RCP4.5 (with mitigation) and RCP8.5 (business as usual). The impact on precipitation is assessed and the decrease of available water quantity is estimated. Under RCP8.5 the project is likely unfeasible. However, under the RCP4.5 a rescaled version of this project may be feasible depending on how much water is allocated to satisfy the local water demand.

Assessing the impact of climate change on Southeast Asia’s hydropower availability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thanh Duc Dang ◽  
Jia Yi Ng ◽  
Stefano Galelli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;Southeast Asia&amp;#8217;s electricity supply largely depends on the hydropower resources of the Mekong, Chao Phraya, Irrawaddy, and Salween River Basins. Uncertain precipitation patterns, rising temperature, and other climate-driven changes are exposing these resources to unprecedented risks, prompting decision makers to re-evaluate existing reservoir management strategies through climate change risk assessments. These assessments are important in shaping the operators&amp;#8217; response to hydro-climatic variability and are necessary to ensure energy security in the region. In this study, we developed high-resolution, semi-distributed hydrological models to examine the potential changes of hydropower availability under projected future climate scenarios in the four largest river basins in South East Asia. Specifically, we relied on a novel variant of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model that integrates reservoir operations into the routing scheme, warranting a more accurate representation of cascade reservoir systems. Climate change impacts were derived from the outputs of five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) forced by two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 2.6 and 8.5) emission scenarios in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We find that hydropower generation would be altered significantly in all scenarios in terms of temporal variability and magnitude due to the changes in duration and magnitude of the summer monsoon. Our findings further stress the importance of exploring how the impact of climate change on hydropower availability propagates through water-energy systems and call for adaptive reservoir operation strategies.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on the Water Highway project in Morocco

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 1467-1483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabil El Moçayd ◽  
Suchul Kang ◽  
Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Available Water ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Highway Project

Abstract. The hydrology of Morocco is characterized by significant spatial variability. Precipitation follows a sharp gradient, decreasing from the north to the south. In order to redistribute the available water, a project has been proposed to transfer 860×106 m3 yr−1 from the wet north to the arid southern regions, namely the “Water Highway” project. The present study aims to address the viability of the project after accounting for the impacts of climate change in the watersheds located in the north. We perform regional climate model (RCM) simulations over the study region using boundary conditions from five different global circulation models (GCMs) and assuming two different emissions scenarios – RCP4.5 (with mitigation) and RCP8.5 (business as usual). The impact on precipitation and temperature are assessed, and the decrease in the available water quantity is estimated. Under RCP8.5, the project is likely not feasible. However, under the RCP4.5, a rescaled version of this project may be feasible depending on how much water is allocated to satisfy the local water demand in the north.

scholarly journals Application of spatial weather generator for the assessment of climate change impacts on a river runoff

Geografie ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 119 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leszek Kuchar ◽  
Sławomir Iwański ◽  
Leszek Jelonek ◽  
Wiwiana Szalińska
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Weather Generator ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Daily Time

In this study, the impacts of climate change on streamflow are investigated. The ensemble of outputs from three different Global Circulation Models models: GISS, CCCM, GFDL developed for the emission scenario A1B were analyzed to infer projected changes in climatological conditions for the region of the Upper and Middle Odra basin. Obtaining hydrological scenarios of future changes for the scale of subcatchment required simulating short-term and fine scaled weather patterns for this area. SWGEN model (Spatial Weather GENerator) was applied to downscale projected changes of climatological conditions to the ones required by hydrological model temporal and spatial resolution. Daily time series of solar radiation, temperature and precipitation were generated for the reference period 1981–2000 and for the time horizon 2030 and 2050. The generated data from SWGEN model were integrated in the hydrological model NAM to simulate streamflow under changed conditions with daily time step. The results show considerable changes in annual and seasonal runoff daily distributions for selected study catchment in the future time horizons of 2030 and 2050.

scholarly journals Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese White Pine Beetle Dendroctonus armandi in China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 544
Author(s):  
Hang Ning ◽  
Ming Tang ◽  
Hui Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Central China ◽  
Qinling Mountains ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact

Dendroctonus armandi (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytidae) is a bark beetle native to China and is the most destructive forest pest in the Pinus armandii woodlands of central China. Due to ongoing climate warming, D. armandi outbreaks have become more frequent and severe. Here, we used Maxent to model its current and future potential distribution in China. Minimum temperature of the coldest month and precipitation seasonality are the two major factors constraining the current distribution of D. armandi. Currently, the suitable area of D. armandi falls within the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains. The total suitable area is 15.83 × 104 km2. Under future climate scenarios, the total suitable area is projected to increase slightly, while remaining within the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains. Among the climate scenarios, the distribution expanded the most under the maximum greenhouse gas emission scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5). Under all assumptions, the highly suitable area is expected to increase over time; the increase will occur in southern Shaanxi, northwest Hubei, and northeast Sichuan Provinces. By the 2050s, the highly suitable area is projected to increase by 0.82 × 104 km2. By the 2050s, the suitable climatic niche for D. armandi will increase along the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains, posing a major challenge for forest managers. Our findings provide information that can be used to monitor D. armandi populations, host health, and the impact of climate change, shedding light on the effectiveness of management responses.

scholarly journals Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland

2010 ◽  
Vol 278 (1712) ◽  
pp. 1661-1669 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Alonso ◽  
Menno J. Bouma ◽  
Mercedes Pascual
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Nonlinear Response ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Human Model ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
East African ◽  
Highly Nonlinear ◽  
The Impact

Climate change impacts on malaria are typically assessed with scenarios for the long-term future. Here we focus instead on the recent past (1970–2003) to address whether warmer temperatures have already increased the incidence of malaria in a highland region of East Africa. Our analyses rely on a new coupled mosquito–human model of malaria, which we use to compare projected disease levels with and without the observed temperature trend. Predicted malaria cases exhibit a highly nonlinear response to warming, with a significant increase from the 1970s to the 1990s, although typical epidemic sizes are below those observed. These findings suggest that climate change has already played an important role in the exacerbation of malaria in this region. As the observed changes in malaria are even larger than those predicted by our model, other factors previously suggested to explain all of the increase in malaria may be enhancing the impact of climate change.

scholarly journals Spatial-temporal changes in river runoff and terrestrial ecosystem water retention under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming scenarios across China

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ran Zhai ◽  
Fulu Tao ◽  
Zhihui Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Water Retention ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Warming Scenario ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The Paris Agreement set a long-term temperature goal of holding the global average temperature increase to below 2.0 ℃ above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5 ℃, it is therefore important to understand the impacts of climate change under 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ warming scenarios for climate adaptation and mitigation. Here, climate scenarios by four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) for the baseline (2006–2015), 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ warming scenarios (2106–2115) were used to drive the validated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model to investigate the impacts of global warming on river runoff and Terrestrial Ecosystem Water Retention (TEWR) in China. The trends in annual mean temperature, precipitation, river runoff and TEWR were analysed at the grid and basin scale. Results showed that there were large uncertainties in climate scenarios from the different GCMs, which led to large uncertainties in the impact assessment. The differences among the four GCMs were larger than differences between the two warming scenarios. The interannual variability of river runoff increased notably in areas where it was projected to increase, and the interannual variability increased notably from 1.5 ℃ warming scenario to 2.0 ℃ warming scenario. By contrast, TEWR would remain relatively stable. Both extreme low and high river runoff would increase under the two warming scenarios in most areas in China, with high river runoff increasing more. And the risk of extreme river runoff events would be higher under 2.0 ℃ warming scenario than under 1.5 ℃ warming scenario in term of both extent and intensity. River runoff was significantly positively correlated to precipitation, while increase in maximum temperature would generally cause river runoff to decrease through increasing evapotranspiration. Likewise, precipitation also played a dominant role in affecting TEWR. Our findings highlight climate change mitigation and adaptation should be taken to reduce the risks of hydrological extreme events.

scholarly journals Producing hydrologic scenarios from raw climate model outputs using an asynchronous modelling framework

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Ricard ◽  
Philippe Lucas-Picher ◽  
François Anctil
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Post Processing ◽  
Hydrologic Models ◽  
Simulated Climate ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Statistical post-processing of climate model outputs is a common hydroclimatic modelling practice aiming to produce climate scenarios that better fit in-situ observations and to produce reliable stream flows forcing calibrated hydrologic models. Such practice is however criticized for disrupting the physical consistency between simulated climate variables and affecting the trends in climate change signals imbedded within raw climate simulations. It also requires abundant good-quality meteorological observations, which are not available for many regions in the world. A simplified hydroclimatic modelling workflow is proposed to quantify the impact of climate change on water discharge without resorting to meteorological observations, nor for statistical post-processing of climate model outputs, nor for calibrating hydrologic models. By combining asynchronous hydroclimatic modelling, an alternative framework designed to construct hydrologic scenarios without resorting to meteorological observations, and quantile perturbation applied to streamflow observations, the proposed workflow produces sound and plausible hydrologic scenarios considering: (1) they preserve trends and physical consistency between simulated climate variables, (2) are implemented from a modelling cascades despite observation scarcity, and (3) support the participation of end-users in producing and interpreting climate change impacts on water resources. The proposed modelling workflow is implemented over four subcatchments of the Chaudière River, Canada, using 9 North American CORDEX simulations and a pool of lumped conceptual hydrologic models. Forced with raw climate model outputs, hydrologic models are calibrated over the reference period according to a calibration metric designed to function with temporally uncorrelated observed and simulated streamflow values. Perturbation factors are defined by relating each simulated streamflow quantiles over both reference and future periods. Hydrologic scenarios are finally produced by applying perturbation factors to available streamflow observations.

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