scholarly journals A Boundary Forcing Sensitivity Analysis of the West African Monsoon Simulated by the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 191
Author(s):  
Guillaume Chagnaud ◽  
Hubert Gallée ◽  
Thierry Lebel ◽  
Gérémy Panthou ◽  
Théo Vischel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Local Population ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
West African ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Rainfall Regime ◽  
The West ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
The Impact

The rainfall regime of West Africa is highly variable over a large range of space and time scales. With rainfall agriculture being predominent in the region, the local population is extremely vulnerable to intraseasonal dry spells and multi-year droughts as well as to intense rainfall over small time steps. Were this variability to increase, it might render the area close from becoming unhabitable. Anticipating any change is thus crucial from both a societal and a scientific perspective. Despite continuous efforts in Global Climate Model (GCM) development, there is still no agreement on the sign of the future rainfall regime change in the region. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used for more accurate projections of future changes as well as end-user-oriented impact studies. In this study, the sensitivity of the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) to homogeneous perturbations in boundary forcing air temperature and/or SST is assessed with the aim to better understand (i) the thermodynamical imprint of the recent rainfall regime changes and (ii) the impact of errors in driving data on the West African rainfall regime simulated by an RCM. After an evaluation step where the model is proved to satisfactorily simulate the West African Monsoon (WAM), sensitivity experiments display contrasted, sizable and robust responses of the simulated rainfall regime. The rainfall responses to the boundary forcing perturbations compare in magnitude with the intrinsic model bias, giving support for such an analysis. A physical interpretation of the rainfall anomalies provides confidence in the model response consistency and shows the potential of such an experimental protocol for future climate change downscalling over this region.

scholarly journals Intraseasonal Land–Atmosphere Coupling in the West African Monsoon

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (24) ◽  
pp. 6636-6648 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher M. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
West African ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
The West ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Via its impact on surface fluxes, subseasonal variability in soil moisture has the potential to feed back on regional atmospheric circulations, and thereby rainfall. An understanding of this feedback mechanism in the climate system has been hindered by the lack of observations at an appropriate scale. In this study, passive microwave data at 10.65 GHz from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite are used to identify soil moisture variability during the West African monsoon. A simple model of surface sensible heat flux is developed from these data and is used, alongside atmospheric analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), to provide a new interpretation of monsoon variability on time scales of the order of 15 days. During active monsoon periods, the data indicate extensive areas of wet soil in the Sahel. The impact of the resulting weak surface heat fluxes is consistent in space and time with low-level variations in atmospheric heating and vorticity, as depicted in the ECMWF analyses. The surface-induced vorticity structure is similar to previously documented intraseasonal variations in the monsoon flow, notably a westward-propagating vortex at low levels. In those earlier studies, the variability in low-level flow was considered to be the critical factor in producing intraseasonal fluctuations in rainfall. The current analysis shows that this vortex can be regarded as an effect of the rainfall (via surface hydrology) as well as a cause.

scholarly journals Dynamics of the West African Monsoon Jump

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (21) ◽  
pp. 5264-5284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samson M. Hagos ◽  
Kerry H. Cook
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
West African ◽  
Moisture Convergence ◽  
The West ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
Sahel Region ◽  
Continental Interior

Abstract The observed abrupt latitudinal shift of maximum precipitation from the Guinean coast into the Sahel region in June, known as the West African monsoon jump, is studied using a regional climate model. Moisture, momentum, and energy budget analyses are used to better understand the physical processes that lead to the jump. Because of the distribution of albedo and surface moisture, a sensible heating maximum is in place over the Sahel region throughout the spring. In early May, this sensible heating drives a shallow meridional circulation and moisture convergence at the latitude of the sensible heating maximum, and this moisture is transported upward into the lower free troposphere where it diverges. During the second half of May, the supply of moisture from the boundary layer exceeds the divergence, resulting in a net supply of moisture and condensational heating into the lower troposphere. The resulting pressure gradient introduces an inertial instability, which abruptly shifts the midtropospheric meridional wind convergence maximum from the coast into the continental interior at the end of May. This in turn introduces a net total moisture convergence, net upward moisture flux and condensation in the upper troposphere, and an enhancement of precipitation in the continental interior through June. Because of the shift of the meridional convergence into the continent, condensation and precipitation along the coast gradually decline. The West African monsoon jump is an example of multiscale interaction in the climate system, in which an intraseasonal-scale event is triggered by the smooth seasonal evolution of SSTs and the solar forcing in the presence of land–sea contrast.

scholarly journals The Impact of Aeolus wind observations on the West African Monsoon

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurus Borne ◽  
Peter Knippertz ◽  
Martin Weissmann ◽  
Michael Rennie ◽  
Alexander Cress
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
West African ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Horizontal Line ◽  
The West ◽  
Great Opportunity ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact

<p>Tropical Africa is characterized by the world-wide largest degree of mesoscale convective organisation. During boreal summer, the wet phase of the West African Monsoon (WAM), the midlevel African easterly jet (AEJ) over the Sahel allows for the formation of synoptic-scale African easterly waves (AEWs) with a maximum intensity close to the West African coast. AEWs interact with convection and its mesoscale organization through modifications in humidity, temperature and vertical wind shear, and often serve as initial disturbances for tropical cyclogenesis. In addition, rainfall can be modulated by other types of tropical waves such as Kelvin or mixed Rossby gravity waves. Upper-tropospheric conditions are dominated by the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ), whose variability appears to be connected to convective activity. Overall, our quantitative understanding of the WAM system is still limited. The observational network over the region is sparse and rainfall forecasts with current Numerical Weather Prediction models are hardly better than climatology.</p><p>The Aeolus satellite launched in 2018 offers a great opportunity to further investigate the WAM with an unprecedented density of free-tropospheric wind data. Assimilating Aeolus wind observations in denial experiments using the current operational system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows that the main circulation features of the WAM are greatly impacted: the AEJ and the TEJ are systematically weaker and stronger respectively by~1m/s in the analysis fields including Aeolus data. As a consequence AEWs also show a weakening in the propagation amplitude. We are currently investigating the contributions of the HLOS (horizontal line-of-sight) Rayleigh and Mie wind observations to these observed differences. Mie observations (i.e., those related to backscatter from hydrometeors and aerosol particles) seems to contribute strongly to the difference in the AEJ, which lies within a convectively active region with a high aerosol load. On the other hand, the difference seen in the TEJ appears to originate mostly in the Rayleigh (i.e., clear air) observations. Surprisingly, the ascending and descending HLOS observations contribute differently to the data impact, possibly revealing a remaining bias or model problems with the diurnal cycle. Future work will include systematic comparisons between the operational systems of DWD and ECMWF to understand the influence of different data assimilation approaches as well as the impact on forecasts.</p>

scholarly journals Feedback of observed interannual vegetation change: a regional climate model analysis for the West African monsoon

2016 ◽  
Vol 48 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 2837-2858 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cornelia Klein ◽  
Jan Bliefernicht ◽  
Dominikus Heinzeller ◽  
Ursula Gessner ◽  
Igor Klein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
Model Analysis ◽  
West African ◽  
The West ◽  
African Monsoon

scholarly journals Improving the Simulation of the West African Monsoon Using the MIT Regional Climate Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 2209-2229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eun-Soon Im ◽  
Rebecca L. Gianotti ◽  
Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
Convective Cloud ◽  
West African ◽  
The West ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
Convection Schemes

Abstract This paper presents an evaluation of the performance of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) regional climate model (MRCM) in simulating the West African monsoon. The MRCM is built on the Regional Climate Model, version 3 (RegCM3), but with several improvements, including coupling of Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) land surface scheme, a new surface albedo assignment method, new convective cloud and convective rainfall autoconversion schemes, and a modified scheme for simulating boundary layer height and boundary layer clouds. To investigate the impact of these more physically realistic representations when incorporated into MRCM, a series of experiments were carried out implementing two land surface schemes [IBIS with a new albedo assignment, and the Biosphere–Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS)] and two convection schemes (Grell with the Fritsch–Chappell closure, and Emanuel in both the default form and modified with the new convective cloud cover and a rainfall autoconversion scheme). The analysis primarily focuses on comparing the rainfall characteristics, surface energy balance, and large-scale circulations against various observations. This work documents significant sensitivity in simulation of the West African monsoon to the choices of the land surface and convection schemes. Despite several deficiencies, the simulation with the combination of IBIS and the modified Emanuel scheme with the new convective cloud cover and a rainfall autoconversion scheme shows the best performance with respect to the spatial distribution of rainfall and the dynamics of the monsoon. The coupling of IBIS leads to representations of the surface energy balance and partitioning that show better agreement with observations compared to BATS. The IBIS simulations also reasonably reproduce the dynamical structures of the West African monsoon circulation.

scholarly journals Impact of Potential Large-Scale Irrigation on the West African Monsoon and Its Dependence on Location of Irrigated Area

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 994-1009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eun-Soon Im ◽  
Marc P. Marcella ◽  
Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
West African Monsoon ◽  
West African ◽  
The West ◽  
Rainfall Distribution ◽  
Irrigation Area ◽  
Anticyclonic Circulation ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study investigates the impact of potential large-scale irrigation on the West African monsoon using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology regional climate model (MRCM). A new irrigation module is implemented to assess the impact of location and scheduling of irrigation on rainfall distribution over West Africa. A control simulation (without irrigation) and eight sensitivity experiments (with irrigation) are performed and compared to discern the effects of irrigation location and scheduling. It is found that the irrigation effect on soil moisture could force significant changes in spatial distribution and magnitude of rainfall, depending on the latitudinal location of irrigation. In general, the large irrigation-induced surface cooling owing to anomalously wet soil tends to suppress moist convection and rainfall, which in turn induces local subsidence and low-level anticyclonic circulation. These local effects are dominated by a consistent reduction of local rainfall over the irrigated land, irrespective of its location. However, the remote response of rainfall distribution to irrigation exhibits a significant sensitivity to the latitudinal position of irrigation and the intraseasonal variation of supplied irrigation water. The low-level northeasterly airflow associated with an anticyclonic circulation centered over the irrigation area, induced at optimal location and timing, would enhance the extent of low-level convergence areas through interaction with the prevailing monsoon flow, leading to a significant increase in rainfall. As the location of the irrigation area is moved from the coast northward, the regional rainfall change exhibits a significant decrease first, then increases gradually to a maximum corresponding to irrigation centered around 20°N, before it declines again.

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