scholarly journals Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 735 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mónica Rodrigues ◽  
Paula Santana ◽  
Alfredo Rocha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Circulatory System ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Hot Temperature ◽  
Time Series Modelling ◽  
Circulatory System Diseases ◽  
The Future

Climate change is now widely recognised as the greatest global threat over the coming decades. This study aimed to quantify and project the effects of climate change on future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases (CSD) in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and in Porto metropolitan area (PMA). The future time slices of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), mid-term (2046–2065) and long-term (2080–2099) were compared with the reference period (1986–2005). There is a significant decreasing trend in proportion to the overall extreme cold temperature-attributable mortality due to CSD in the future periods (2045–2065 and 2081–2099) in LMA, −0.63% and −0.73%, respectively, and in PMA, −0.62% for 2045–2065 and −0.69% for 2081–2099, compared to the historical period. The fraction attributable to extreme hot temperature in the summer months increased by 0.08% and 0.23%, from 0.04% in the historical period to 0.11% during 2046–2065, and to 0.27% during 2081–2099 in LMA. While there were no noticeable changes due to extreme hot temperature during the summer in PMA, significant increases were observed with warmer winter temperatures: 1.27% and 2.80%. The projections of future temperature-attributable mortality may provide valuable information to support climate policy decision making and temperature-related risk management.

scholarly journals Statistical Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change: Who Is at Risk?

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 159
Author(s):  
Mónica Rodrigues ◽  
Paula Santana ◽  
Alfredo Rocha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Circulatory System ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Circulatory System Diseases ◽  
Related Mortality

Several studies emphasize that temperature-related mortality can be expected to have differential effects on different subpopulations, particularly in the context of climate change. This study aims to evaluate and quantify the future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases by age groups (under 65 and 65+ years), in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and Porto metropolitan area (PMA), over the 2051–2065 and 2085–2099 time horizons, considering the greenhouse gas emissions scenario RCP8.5, in relation to a historical period (1991–2005). We found a decrease in extreme cold-related deaths of 0.55% and 0.45% in LMA, for 2051–2065 and 2085–2099, respectively. In PMA, there was a decrease in cold-related deaths of 0.31% and 0.49% for 2051–2065 and 2085–2099, respectively, compared to 1991–2005. In LMA, the burden of extreme heat-related mortality in age group 65+ years is slightly higher than in age group <65 years, at 2.22% vs. 1.38%, for 2085–2099. In PMA, only people aged 65+ years showed significant temperature-related burden of deaths that can be attributable to hot temperatures. The heat-related excess deaths increased from 0.23% for 2051–2065 to 1.37% for 2085–2099, compared to the historical period.

scholarly journals Appropriateness of Potential Evapotranspiration Models for Climate Change Impact Analysis in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, China

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pan ◽  
Xu ◽  
Xuan ◽  
Gu ◽  
Bai
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Yarlung Zangbo River ◽  
The Future ◽  
Change Impact

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important element in the water and energy cycle. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is an important measurement of ET. Its accuracy has significant influence on agricultural water management, irrigation planning, and hydrological modelling. However, whether current PET models are applicable under climate change or not, is still a question. In this study, five frequently used PET models were chosen, including one combination model (the FAO Penman-Monteith model, FAO-PM), two temperature-based models (the Blaney-Criddle and the Hargreaves models) and two radiation-based models (the Makkink and the Priestley-Taylor models), to estimate their appropriateness in the historical and future periods under climate change impact on the Yarlung Zangbo river basin, China. Bias correction methods were not only applied to the temperature output of Global Climate Models (GCMs), but also for radiation, humidity, and wind speed. It was demonstrated that the results from the Blaney-Criddle and Makkink models provided better agreement with the PET obtained by the FAO-PM model in the historical period. In the future period, monthly PET estimated by all five models show positive trends. The changes of PET under RCP8.5 are much higher than under RCP2.6. The radiation-based models show better appropriateness than the temperature-based models in the future, as the root mean square error (RMSE) value of the former models is almost half of the latter models. The radiation-based models are recommended for use to estimate PET under climate change in the Yarlung Zangbo river basin.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Flows Under IPCC RCP Scenarios in the Mountainous Kaidu Watershed, Tarim River Basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 2090 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue Huang ◽  
Yonggang Ma ◽  
Tie Liu ◽  
Min Luo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Tarim River Basin ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Gev Distribution ◽  
Extreme Flows ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Future

In the 21st century, heavier rainfall events and warmer temperatures in mountainous regions have significant impacts on hydrological processes and the occurrence of flood/drought extremes. Long-term modeling and peak flow detection of streamflow series are crucial in understanding the behavior of flood and drought. This study was conducted to analyze the impacts of future climate change on extreme flows in the Kaidu River Basin, northwestern China. The soil water assessment tool (SWAT) was used for hydrological modeling. The projected future precipitation and temperature under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios were downscaled and used to drive the validated SWAT model. A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was employed to assess the probability distribution of flood events. The modeling results showed that the simulated discharge well matched the observed ones both in the calibration and validation periods. Comparing with the historical period, the ensemble with 15 general circulation models (GCMs) showed that the annual precipitation will increase by 7.9–16.1% in the future, and extreme precipitation events will increase in winter months. Future temperature will increase from 0.42 °C/10 a to 0.70 °C/10 a. However, with respect to the hydrological response to climate change, annual mean runoff will decrease by 21.5–40.0% under the mean conditions of the four RCP scenarios. A reduction in streamflow will occur in winter, while significantly increased discharge will occur from April to May. In addition, designed floods for return periods of five, 10 and 20 years in the future, as predicted by the GEV distribution, will decrease by 3–20% over the entire Kaidu watershed compared to those in the historical period. The results will be used to help local water resource management with hazard warning and flood control.

Controlled drainage in future climate scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksi Salla ◽  
Heidi Salo ◽  
Harri Koivusalo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Controlled Drainage ◽  
Agricultural Field ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
The Future ◽  
Wet And Dry Cycles ◽  
Drainage Effect

&lt;p&gt;Climate change is projected to result in higher temperatures, higher annual precipitation and more uneven distribution of precipitation in the northern regions. This requires adaptation in agriculture where both excessively wet and dry cycles pose challenges to cropping. Until now, water management in northern agricultural fields has been resting primarily on efficient drainage, but interest towards more flexible measures has increased.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This study focuses on the hydrological effects of climate change and controlled drainage operated with subsurface drains and an open collector ditch in an agricultural field. The objective was to computationally estimate how groundwater levels and water balance respond to controlled drainage and open ditch scenarios in climate conditions projected to take place in Finland during this century. A hydrological model FLUSH was used to simulate the hydrology of an experimental field in Sievi, Northern Ostrobothnia, Finland during years 1970&amp;#8211;2100. Down-scaled climate projections from EURO-CORDEX (RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6) were used as meteorological input. The temporal development of the field hydrology and the effects of controlled drainage were examined by dividing the time series into four subsequent time intervals (historical period and three future periods).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Two different control scenarios were studied. Drainage intensity was reduced during growing seasons in summers (Jun.&amp;#8211;Aug.) and either in autumn (Oct.&amp;#8211;Nov.) or from autumn to spring (Oct.&amp;#8211;Mar.). During these periods, groundwater table was on average 17&amp;#8211;29 cm, 28&amp;#8211;30 cm and 36&amp;#8211;40 cm higher, respectively, in the control scenarios when compared to conventional subsurface drainage in different study intervals and emission scenarios. The implementation of controlled drainage reduced annual drain discharge by 21&amp;#8211;46 mm. The projected temporal evolution of the effects of controlled drainage on groundwater levels and annual drain discharges were not monotonous, but the projected effects were larger during the future periods when compared to the historical period. Controlled drainage effect on groundwater levels was seen during both dry and wet years. Controlled drainage was assessed to be an effective method to control field water processes currently and in the future decades. The open collector ditch lowered groundwater levels within a distance of 115 m from the ditch.&lt;/p&gt;

Analysis of EURO-CORDEX sub-daily rainfall simulations and derived event characteristics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paola Nanni ◽  
David J. Peres ◽  
Rosaria E. Musumeci ◽  
Antonino Cancelliere
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Rainfall Event ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
The Future

&lt;p&gt;Climate change is a phenomenon that is claimed to be responsible for a significant alteration of the precipitation regime in different regions worldwide and for the induced potential changes on related hydrological hazards. In particular, some consensus has raised about the fact that climate changes can induce a shift to shorter but more intense rainfall events, causing an intensification of urban and flash flooding hazards. &amp;#160;Regional climate models (RCMs) are a useful tool for trying to predict the impacts of climate change on hydrological events, although their application may lead to significant differences when different models are adopted. For this reason, it is of key importance to ascertain the quality of regional climate models (RCMs), especially with reference to their ability to reproduce the main climatological regimes with respect to an historical period. To this end, several studies have focused on the analysis of annual or monthly data, while few studies do exist that analyze the sub-daily data that are made available by the regional climate projection initiatives. In this study, with reference to specific locations in eastern Sicily (Italy), we first evaluate historical simulations of precipitation data from selected RCMs belonging to the Euro-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for the Euro-Mediterranean area) with high temporal resolution (three-hourly), in order to understand how they compare to fine-resolution observations. In particular, we investigate the ability to reproduce rainfall event characteristics, as well as annual maxima precipitation at different durations. With reference to rainfall event characteristics, we specifically focus on duration, intensity, and inter-arrival time between events. Annual maxima are analyzed at sub-daily durations. We then analyze the future simulations according to different Representative concentration scenarios. The proposed analysis highlights the differences between the different RCMs, supporting the selection of the most suitable climate model for assessing the impacts in the considered locations, and to understand what trends for intense precipitation are to be expected in the future.&lt;/p&gt;

Assessing the spatio-temporal variation and uncertainty patterns of historical and future projected water resources in China

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 302-316
Author(s):  
Qiuan Zhu ◽  
Hong Jiang ◽  
Changhui Peng ◽  
Jinxun Liu ◽  
Xiuqin Fang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temporal Variation ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Model ◽  
The Future

The spatial and temporal variation and uncertainty of precipitation and runoff in China were compared and evaluated between historical and future periods under different climate change scenarios. The precipitation pattern is derived from observed and future projected precipitation data for historical and future periods, respectively. The runoff is derived from simulation results in historical and future periods using a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) forced with historical observed and global climate models (GCMs) future projected climate data, respectively. One GCM (CGCM3.1) under two emission scenarios (SRES A2 and SRES B1) was used for the future period simulations. The results indicated high uncertainties and variations in climate change effects on hydrological processes in China: precipitation and runoff showed a significant increasing trend in the future period but a decreasing trend in the historical period at the national level; the temporal variation and uncertainty of projected precipitation and runoff in the future period were predicted to be higher than those in the historical period; the levels of precipitation and runoff in the future period were higher than those in the historical period. The change in trends of precipitation and runoff are highly affected by different climate change scenarios. GCM structure and emission scenarios should be the major sources of uncertainty.

scholarly journals The Impacts of Climate Change on Maximum Daily Discharge in the Payab Jamash Watershed, Iran

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1035-1045
Author(s):  
Farzad Parandin ◽  
Asadollah Khoorani ◽  
Ommolbanin Bazrafshan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Flow Simulation ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Future Period ◽  
The Future ◽  
Daily Discharge

Abstract One of the most crucial consequences of climate change involves the alteration of the hydrologic cycle and river flow regime of watersheds. This study was an endeavor to investigate the contributions of climate change to maximum daily discharge (MDD). To this end, the MDD simulation was carried out through implementing the IHACRES precipitation-runoff model in the Payyab Jamash watershed for the 21st century (2016-2100). Subsequently, the observed precipitation and temperature data of the weather stations (1980-2011) as well as 4 multi-model outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the maximum and minimum Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (2016-2100) were utilized. In order to downscale the output of GCMs, Bias Correction (BC) statistical method was applied. The projections for the 21st century indicated a reduction in Maximum Daily Precipitation (MDP) in comparison with the historic period in the study area. The average projected MDP for the future period was 9 mm/day and 5 mm/ day under 2.6 and 8.5 RCPs (4.6% and 2.6% decrease compared with the historical period), respectively. Moreover, the temperature increased in Jamash Watershed based on 2.6 and 8.5 RCPs by 1∘C and 2∘C(3.7% and 7.4% increase compared with the historical period), respectively. The findings of flow simulation for the future period indicated a decrease in MDD due to the diminished MDP in the study area. The amount of this decrease under RCP8.5 was not remarkable (0.75 m3/s), whereas its value for RCP2.6 was calculated as 40m3/s (respectively, 0.11% and 5.88% decrease compared with the historical period).

scholarly journals Water allocation under climate change

Elem Sci Anth ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pilar Barría ◽  
Ignacio Barría Sandoval ◽  
Carlos Guzman ◽  
Cristián Chadwick ◽  
Camila Alvarez-Garreton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Allocation ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
North Central ◽  
The Future

Chile is positioned in the 20th rank of water availability per capita. Nonetheless, water security levels vary across the territory. Around 70% of the national population lives in arid and semiarid regions, where a persistent drought has been experienced over the last decade. This has led to water security problems including water shortages. The water allocation and trading system in Chile is based on a water use rights (WURs) market, with limited regulatory and supervisory mechanisms, where the volume to be granted as permanent and eventual WURs is calculated from statistical analyses of historical streamflow records if available, or from empirical estimations if they are not. This computation of WURs does not consider the nonstationarity of hydrological processes nor climatic projections. This study presents the first large sample diagnosis of water allocation system in Chile under climate change scenarios. This is based on novel anthropic intervention indices (IAI), which were computed as the ratio between the total granted water volume to the water availability within 87 basins in north-central and southern Chile (30°S–42°S). The IAI were evaluated for the historical period (1979–2019) and under modeled-based climatic projections (2055–2080). According to these IAI levels, to date, there are 20 out of 87 overallocated basins, which under the assumption that no further WURs will be granted in the future, increases up to 25 basins for the 2055–2080 period. The results show that, to date most of north-central Chilean catchments already have a large anthropic intervention degree, and the increases for the future period occurs mostly in the southern region of the country (approximately 38°S), which has been considered as possible source of water for large water transfer projects (i.e., water roads). These indices and diagnosis are proposed as a tool to help policy makers to address water scarcity under climate change.

scholarly journals Twenty-first-century glacio-hydrological changes in the Himalayan headwater Beas River basin

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 1483-1503 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Li ◽  
Mingxi Shen ◽  
Yukun Hou ◽  
Chong-Yu Xu ◽  
Arthur F. Lutz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Northern India ◽  
Hydrological Changes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Total Discharge

Abstract. The Himalayan Mountains are the source region of one of the world's largest supplies of freshwater. The changes in glacier melt may lead to droughts as well as floods in the Himalayan basins, which are vulnerable to hydrological changes. This study used an integrated glacio-hydrological model, the Glacier and Snow Melt – WASMOD model (GSM-WASMOD), for hydrological projections under 21st century climate change by two ensembles of four global climate models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two bias-correction methods (i.e., the daily bias correction (DBC) and the local intensity scaling (LOCI)) in order to assess the future hydrological changes in the Himalayan Beas basin up to Pandoh Dam (upper Beas basin). Besides, the glacier extent loss during the 21st century was also investigated as part of the glacio-hydrological modeling as an ensemble simulation. In addition, a high-resolution WRF precipitation dataset suggested much heavier winter precipitation over the high-altitude ungauged area, which was used for precipitation correction in the study. The glacio-hydrological modeling shows that the glacier ablation accounted for about 5 % of the annual total runoff during 1986–2004 in this area. Under climate change, the temperature will increase by 1.8–2.8 ∘C at the middle of the century (2046–2065), and by 2.3–5.4 ∘C until the end of the century (2080–2099). It is very likely that the upper Beas basin will get warmer and wetter compared to the historical period. In this study, the glacier extent in the upper Beas basin is projected to decrease over the range of 63 %–87 % by the middle of the century and 89 %–100 % at the end of the century compared to the glacier extent in 2005. This loss in glacier area will in general result in a reduction in glacier discharge in the future, while the future streamflow is most likely to have a slight increase because of the increase in both precipitation and temperature under all the scenarios. However, there is widespread uncertainty regarding the changes in total discharge in the future, including the seasonality and magnitude. In general, the largest increase in river total discharge also has the largest spread. The uncertainty in future hydrological change is not only from GCMs, but also from the bias-correction methods and hydrological modeling. A decrease in discharge is found in July from DBC, while it is opposite for LOCI. Besides, there is a decrease in evaporation in September from DBC, which cannot be seen from LOCI. The study helps to understand the hydrological impacts of climate change in northern India and contributes to stakeholder and policymaker engagement in the management of future water resources in northern India.

scholarly journals Drought Occurrence Probability Analysis Using Multivariate Standardized Drought Index and Copula Function Under Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimia Naderi ◽  
mahnoosh moghaddasi ◽  
Ashkan Shokri
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
The Future ◽  
Joint Return ◽  
Joint Return Period ◽  
Drought Occurrence ◽  
Standardized Drought Index

Abstract This study aims to investigate the effect of climate change on the probability of drought occurrence in central Iran. To this end, a new drought index called Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) was developed, which is composed of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI). The required data included precipitation, temperature (from CRU TS), and soil moisture (from the ESA CCA SM product) on a monthly time scale for the 1980–2016 period. Moreover, future climate data were downloaded from CMIP6 models under the latest SSPs-RCPs emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) for the 2020–2056 period. Based on the NRMSE, Sn, and NS evaluation criteria, the Galambos and Clayton functions were selected to derive copula-based joint distribution functions in both periods. The results showed that more severe droughts and longer will occur in the future compared to the historical period and in particular under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. From the derived joint return period, a drought event with defined severity or duration will happen in a shorter return period as compared with the historical period. In other words, joint return period indicated a higher probability of drought occurrence in the future period. Moreover, the joint return period analysis revealed that the return period of mild droughts will remain the same, while it decresed over extreme droughts in the future.

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