scholarly journals Comprehensive Prediction and Discriminant Model for Rockburst Intensity Based on Improved Variable Fuzzy Sets Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (15) ◽  
pp. 3173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Wang ◽  
Lei Nie ◽  
Yan Xu ◽  
Yan Lv ◽  
Yuanyuan He ◽  
...  

Rockburst intensity prediction is one of the basic works of underground engineering disaster prevention and mitigation. Considering the dynamic variability and fuzziness in rockburst intensity prediction, variable fuzzy sets (VFS) are selected for evaluation and prediction. Here, there are two problems in the application of traditional VFS: (i) the relative membership degree (RMD) calculation process is complex and time-consuming, and the RMD matrix of all indexes can be only obtained by using the RMD function repeatedly; (ii) unreasonable weights of indicators have great impact on the synthetic relative membership degree (SRMD), so it is difficult to guarantee the correctness of the final prediction result. In view of the above problem, this paper established three simplified feature relationship expressions of RMD based on VFS principle and used the SRMD function to establish a BP neural network model to optimize SRMD. The improved VFS method is more efficient and the prediction results are more stable and reliable than the traditional VFS method. The main advantages are as follows: (1) the improved VFS method has higher computational efficiency; (2) the improved VFS method can verify the correctness of RMD at all times; (3) the improved VFS method has higher prediction accuracy; and (4) the improved VFS method has higher fault tolerance and practicability.

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 942-952
Author(s):  
Xicun ZHU ◽  
Zhuoyuan WANG ◽  
Lulu GAO ◽  
Gengxing ZHAO ◽  
Ling WANG

The objective of the paper is to explore the best phenophase for estimating the nitrogen contents of apple leaves, to establish the best estimation model of the hyperspectral data at different phenophases. It is to improve the apple trees precise fertilization and production management. The experiments were done in 20 orchards in the field, measured hyperspectral data and nitrogen contents of apple leaves at three phenophases in two years, which were shoot growth phenophase, spring shoots pause growth phenophase, autumn shoots pause growth phenophase. The study analyzed the nitrogen contents of apple leaves with its original spectral and first derivative, screened sensitive wavelengths of each phenophase. The hyperspectral parameters were built with the sensitive wavelengths. Multiple stepwise regressions, partial least squares and BP neural network model were adopted in the study. The results showed that 551 nm, 716 nm, 530 nm, 703 nm; 543 nm, 705 nm, 699 nm, 756 nm and 545 nm, 702 nm, 695 nm, 746 nm were sensitive wavelengths of three phenophases. R551+R716, R551*R716, FDR530+FDR703, FDR530*FDR703; R543+R705, R543*R705, FDR699+FDR756, FDR699*FDR756and R545+R702, R545*R702, FDR695+FDR746, FDR695*FDR746 were the best hyperspectral parameters of each phenophase. Of all the estimation models, the estimated effect of shoot growth phenophase was better than other two phenophases, so shoot growth phenophase was the best phenophase to estimate the nitrogen contents of apple leaves based on hyperspectral models. In the three models, the 4-3-1 BP neural network model of shoot growth phenophase was the best estimation model. The R2 of estimated value and measured value was 0.6307, RE% was 23.37, RMSE was 0.6274.


Author(s):  
Lijuan Huang ◽  
Guojie Xie ◽  
Wende Zhao ◽  
Yan Gu ◽  
Yi Huang

AbstractWith the rapid development of e-commerce, the backlog of distribution orders, insufficient logistics capacity and other issues are becoming more and more serious. It is very significant for e-commerce platforms and logistics enterprises to clarify the demand of logistics. To meet this need, a forecasting indicator system of Guangdong logistics demand was constructed from the perspective of e-commerce. The GM (1, 1) model and Back Propagation (BP) neural network model were used to simulate and forecast the logistics demand of Guangdong province from 2000 to 2019. The results show that the Guangdong logistics demand forecasting indicator system has good applicability. Compared with the GM (1, 1) model, the BP neural network model has smaller prediction error and more stable prediction results. Based on the results of the study, it is the recommendation of the authors that e-commerce platforms and logistics enterprises should pay attention to the prediction of regional logistics demand, choose scientific forecasting methods, and encourage the implementation of new distribution modes.


2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Kuo-Kuang Fan ◽  
Shuh-Yeuan Deng ◽  
Chung-Ho Su ◽  
Fu-Yuan Cheng

Emotions have a very important impact on human’s beliefs, motivations, actions, and physical states. Emotions predicting and its application in intelligent system can improve the interaction between humans and machines. Current research in artificial emotion focuses on how to measure, calculate, or compute it. However, the transfer of emotion is often too complicated to present full emotion states and changes. This paper combines with emotional dimension and theory of variable fuzzy sets to present a predicting artificial emotion model and shows illustrated example of it. This study shows that any raw data from input can be computed with variable fuzzy set. It provides a mathematical method for representing emotion quantitative, gradual qualitative, and mutated qualitative change. This framework improves calculation methods and mechanisms, closer to real emotional changes.


2010 ◽  
Vol 97-101 ◽  
pp. 250-254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Jian Zhou

On the basis of orthogonal test analysis of variance, BP neural network is used to forecast quantitatively the stamping spring-back of front panel of a car body, namely the engine hood, under the conditions of different stamping parameters. Firstly, BP neural network prediction model is established and sample training is done in Matlab. Then, the spring-back prediction using BP neural network and the result of spring-back simulation using Dynaform is compared to verify the precision and stability of the prediction model. Lastly, modification is made to the BP neural network according to practical stamping parameters and an efficient BP neural network model is established. Using this model, stamping spring-back prediction for the front panel of a car body is made. The spring-back prediction could then be used for spring-back compensation in the mould design of the front panel.


2010 ◽  
Vol 34-35 ◽  
pp. 301-305
Author(s):  
Zhao Qian Zhu ◽  
Jue Yang ◽  
Xiao Ming Zhang ◽  
Xiao Lei Li

This paper studied misfire diagnosis of diesel engine based on short-time vibration characters. Misfire of diesel engine was simulated by the vibration monitoring test. Cylinder vibration signal and top center signal were collected under different states. The short-time vibration signal of each cylinder was intercepted according to the diesel combustion sequence, effective value was calculated, and BP Neural Network model built with this character was used to diagnose diesel misfire. The result shows that this method can locate the misfire cylinder effectively, and it is meaningful for guiding the detection and repair of vehicles.


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