scholarly journals Hybrid Models Combining Technical and Fractal Analysis with ANN for Short-Term Prediction of Close Values on the Warsaw Stock Exchange

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 2473 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michał Paluch ◽  
Lidia Jackowska-Strumiłło
Keyword(s):  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Fractal Analysis ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Hybrid Models ◽  
Fractal Modeling ◽  
Fractal Analyses ◽  
Warsaw Stock Exchange ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Short Term Prediction

This paper presents new methods and models for forecasting stock prices and computing hybrid models, combining analytical and neural approaches. First, technical and fractal analyses are conducted and selected stock market indices calculated, such as moving averages and oscillators. Next, on the basis of these indices, an artificial neural network (ANN) provides predictions one day ahead of the closing prices of the assets. New technical analysis indicators using fractal modeling are also proposed. Three kinds of hybrid model with different degrees of fractal analysis were considered. The new hybrid modeling approach was compared to previous ANN-based prediction methods. The results showed that the hybrid model with fractal analysis outperforms other models and is more robust over longer periods of time.

scholarly journals The Impact of Acquisition on Stock Value in Case of Warsaw Stock Exchange

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-79
Author(s):  
Wojciech Kaczmarczyk
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Information Transfer ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Electronic System ◽  
Market Reactions ◽  
Warsaw Stock Exchange ◽  
Market Indexes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Research purpose: Seven of 10 companies that have won the Polish Forbes edition Merge & Acquisition 2018 Ranking are listed on Warsaw Stock Exchange. The aim of the conducted research was to test if the biggest acquisitions have an impact on stocks value and is it possible for typical investor to create extra profit by using knowledge of acquisition based on public information. Design/Methodology/Approach: Using data from Warsaw Stock Exchange (quotations), typical measures such as rate of return, standard deviation (risk), correlation and transaction volume changes were calculated. Each of the case results obtained for the company was compared with the result for stock market indexes: WIG (Warszawski Indeks Giełdowy – main WSE index), WIG20 (WSE sub-index of the 20 largest companies), mWIG40 (WSE sub-index of 40 medium companies) and sWIG80 (WSE sub-index of 80 small companies). In addition, the outcomes were confronted with public news (from WSE Electronic System for Information Transfer). Findings: Conducted research has shown that generally successful finalisation of acquisition results in changes of stock prices behaviour. Unfortunately, observed reactions were not the same. Acquisitions induced both increases and decreases in stock prices; there was also no rule in case of risk change. Generally, acquisitions and merges had rather good influence in banking sector (which is still concentrating), but there was no common reaction in other sectors. Originality/Value/Practical Implications: The results will be useful for investors acting on Warsaw Stock Exchange, especially for individual investor who are not able to carry out detailed analyses. The research provides results including possible pre-effects and after-effects of making big acquisition by a large company. The negative market reactions were also shown.

scholarly journals LISTING OF SHARES OF SOME COMMERCIAL BANKS AND FINANCIAL SERVICES COMPANIES IN POLAND

2018 ◽  
pp. 43-51
Author(s):  
Sławomir Juszczyk
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Stock Price Volatility ◽  
Warsaw Stock Exchange

The purpose of the research was to identify the volatilities of daily quotes of banks and financial services companies listed on Warsaw Stock Exchange in the six-year period ie 2011-2016. It was found that the volatility of the stock price of the eCard was the strongest correlated with BPH stock price volatility, while the volatility of KREDYTIN stock prices was strongly correlated with the volatility of BZ WBK shares, ING and PKO BP. The strongest correlation between the stock prices of banks and the surveyed financial services companies was on the day of their listing. Unlike banks, financial services companies are highly diversified.

scholarly journals The Influence of Investors’ Mood on the Stock Prices: Evidence from Energy Firms in Warsaw Stock Exchange, Poland

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (21) ◽  
pp. 7396
Author(s):  
Waldemar Tarczyński ◽  
Urszula Mentel ◽  
Grzegorz Mentel ◽  
Umer Shahzad
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Weather Factors ◽  
Rates Of Return ◽  
Warsaw Stock Exchange ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Mutual Relations

The subject of this publication is an analysis of the sentiment of stock exchange investors in terms of making investment decisions in the energy sector of the Polish stock exchange. The investment mood is considered in the context of the possible impact of weather factors on investment decisions. Possible effects are verified in relation to the rates of return and the volume of trading of energy sector entities. The analysis is carried out both in terms of co-integration analyses as well as in econometric terms, in the cross-section of classic OLS models or causality analysis using VAR vector autoregression models. The main purpose of the issues discussed is the problem of indicating (illustrating) the presence or absence of mutual relations between weather factors and the stock market in terms of the methods considered.

scholarly journals Stock Prices and the Rate of Return Analysis: The Case of Warsaw Stock Exchange

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-34
Author(s):  
Magdalena Jasiniak
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Rates Of Return ◽  
Warsaw Stock Exchange

The main aims of this article are to verify whether rates of return might be determined by stock prices and to evaluate low price anomaly on the example of Warsaw Stock Exchange. The author states that cheap assets characterized by nominally lower prices are more attractive to buy and bring higher profits in comparison to assets described as expensive. In order to verify the hypothesis, database of 13789 quotations from 1.07.1999 to 30.12.2013 was created. The sample was divided into three groups – cheap, average, and expensive stocks. Finally, the statistical analysis was conducted using 2924 records including only cheap and expensive units. Statistical analysis confirms that low–priced assets generate higher profits and lower losses.

scholarly journals The Relationship Between Stock Market Development and Macroeconomic Fundamentals in the Visegrad Group

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomáš Pražák ◽  
Daniel Stavárek
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Stock Market Development ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Fundamentals ◽  
Warsaw Stock Exchange ◽  
Short Run

This study examines the effect of specific macroeconomic factors on the stock prices of selected financial sector companies listed on the Central European Exchanges (Budapest Stock Exchange, Prague Stock Exchange, Bratislava Stock Exchange, or Warsaw Stock Exchange). We investigate the nature of the causal relationships between macroeconomic factors and stock prices. The long‑term causality, tested using the Johansen cointegration test, and the short‑run dynamics between the variables, examined using the VECM model, are explored using quarterly data from the 2005–2014 period. The short‑term causality shows the possibility of time series fluctuations; however a steady state should be achieved in the long‑term. In general, we confirmed that macroeconomic fundamentals had a negative impact on stock prices. The interest rate, which also has a negative im­pact, is the most prominent predictor of the long‑run developments. We also found very rare examples of macroeconomic variables that explain changes in stock prices within the VECM framework.

The Effect of Current Ratio and Debt to Asset Ratio on Net Profit Margin and Stock Prices: A Study of Basic Industry and Chemicals Companies

2020 ◽  
pp. 282-294
Author(s):  
Sudirman S ◽  
Muhammad Wahyuddin Abdullah ◽  
Muhammad Obie
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Profit Margin ◽  
Current Ratio ◽  
Industry Sector ◽  
Basic Industry ◽  
Net Profit ◽  
Equity Ratio ◽  
Index Value

This study examined the effect of current ratio and debt to asset ratio on net profit margin and stock prices of the sector basic industry and chemicals companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the period 2015-2019. The object of research was the stock prices of companies in the Basic Industry and Chemicals sector, which have been published through the official website of the Indonesian capital market. It was used secondary data derived from the monthly statistics, including Current Ratio data, Net Profit Margin, Debt to Asset Ratio, and data on closing prices for the period 2015-2019. In analyzing data, it was used path analysis of secondary data obtained from the basic industry sector financial statements of 60 companies. The company's performance in this sector is considered quite good when seen from the movement of the index value in the last five years. The results show that direct current ratio had a positive and significant effect on the net profit margin, and the debt to equity ratio did not significantly influence the net profit margin. The current ratio has a positive and significant effect on stock prices, and the debt to equity ratio has a negative and not significant effect on stock prices. In contrast, the net profit margin has a significant effect on stock prices in the basic industry sector companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Indirectly the current ratio has a positive and significant effect on stock prices. In contrast, the debt to asset ratio has a negative and not significant effect on the company's stock prices in the basic industry sector on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.

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