scholarly journals Adaptive Solar Power Forecasting based on Machine Learning Methods

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 2224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Wang ◽  
Hualei Zou ◽  
Xin Chen ◽  
Fanghua Zhang ◽  
Jie Chen
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Load Demand ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Combining Data ◽  
Data Updating ◽  
Solar Power Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting Errors ◽  
Power Forecasting

Due to the existence of predicting errors in the power systems, such as solar power, wind power and load demand, the economic performance of power systems can be weakened accordingly. In this paper, we propose an adaptive solar power forecasting (ASPF) method for precise solar power forecasting, which captures the characteristics of forecasting errors and revises the predictions accordingly by combining data clustering, variable selection, and neural network. The proposed ASPF is thus quite general, and does not require any specific original forecasting method. We first propose the framework of ASPF, featuring the data identification and data updating. We then present the applied improved k-means clustering, the least angular regression algorithm, and BPNN, followed by the realization of ASPF, which is shown to improve as more data collected. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed ASPF based on the trace-driven data.

scholarly journals A Novel Extension Decision-Making Method for Selecting Solar Power Systems

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Meng-Hui Wang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Solar System ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Power System ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Important Task ◽  
Extension Theory ◽  
Solar Systems ◽  
Load Demand ◽  
Generating Capacity

Due to the complex parameters of a solar power system, the designer not only must think about the load demand but also needs to consider the price, weight, and annual power generating capacity (APGC) and maximum power of the solar system. It is an important task to find the optimal solar power system with many parameters. Therefore, this paper presents a novel decision-making method based on the extension theory; we call it extension decision-making method (EDMM). Using the EDMM can make it quick to select the optimal solar power system. The paper proposed this method not only to provide a useful estimated tool for the solar system engineers but also to supply the important reference with the installation of solar systems to the consumer.

MPF-Net: A computational multi-regional solar power forecasting framework

2021 ◽  
Vol 151 ◽  
pp. 111559
Author(s):  
Faiza Mehmood ◽  
Muhammad Usman Ghani ◽  
Muhammad Nabeel Asim ◽  
Rehab Shahzadi ◽  
Aamir Mehmood ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Solar Power ◽  
Solar Power Forecasting ◽  
Power Forecasting

scholarly journals Building the Sun4Cast System: Improvements in Solar Power Forecasting

2018 ◽  
Vol 99 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sue Ellen Haupt ◽  
Branko Kosović ◽  
Tara Jensen ◽  
Jeffrey K. Lazo ◽  
Jared A. Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
Collaborative Design ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Solar Array ◽  
Solar Power Forecasting ◽  
Power Forecasting

Abstract As integration of solar power into the national electric grid rapidly increases, it becomes imperative to improve forecasting of this highly variable renewable resource. Thus, a team of researchers from the public, private, and academic sectors partnered to develop and assess a new solar power forecasting system, Sun4Cast. The partnership focused on improving decision-making for utilities and independent system operators, ultimately resulting in improved grid stability and cost savings for consumers. The project followed a value chain approach to determine key research and technology needs to reach desired results. Sun4Cast integrates various forecasting technologies across a spectrum of temporal and spatial scales to predict surface solar irradiance. Anchoring the system is WRF-Solar, a version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) model optimized for solar irradiance prediction. Forecasts from multiple NWP models are blended via the Dynamic Integrated Forecast (DICast) System, which forms the basis of the system beyond about 6 h. For short-range (0–6 h) forecasts, Sun4Cast leverages several observation-based nowcasting technologies. These technologies are blended via the Nowcasting Expert System Integrator (NESI). The NESI and DICast systems are subsequently blended to produce short- to midterm irradiance forecasts for solar array locations. The irradiance forecasts are translated into power with uncertainties quantified using an analog ensemble approach and are provided to the industry partners for real-time decision-making. The Sun4Cast system ran operationally throughout 2015 and results were assessed. This paper analyzes the collaborative design process, discusses the project results, and provides recommendations for best-practice solar forecasting.

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