scholarly journals Identification and Prioritization of Critical Risk Factors of Commercial and Recreational Complex Building Projects: A Delphi Study Using the TOPSIS Method

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (17) ◽  
pp. 7906 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jolanta Tamošaitienė ◽  
Mojtaba Khosravi ◽  
Matteo Cristofaro ◽  
Daniel W. M. Chan ◽  
Hadi Sarvari
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Delphi Study ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Cumulative Risk ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Building Projects ◽  
Statistical Population ◽  
External Threats ◽  
Complex Building

Construction development of Commercial and Recreational Complex Building Projects (CRCBPs) is one of the community needs of many developing countries. Since the implementation of these projects is usually very costly, identifying and evaluating their Critical Risk Factors (CRFs) are of significant importance. Therefore, the current study aims to identify and prioritize CRFs of CRCBPs in the Iranian context. A descriptive-survey method was used in this research; the statistical population, selected based on the purposive sampling method, includes 30 construction experts with hands-on experience in CRCBPs. A questionnaire related to the risk identification stage was developed based on a detailed study of the research literature and also using the Delphi survey method; 82 various risks were finally identified. In order to confirm the opinions of experts in identifying the potential risks, Kendall’s coefficient of concordance was used. In the first stage of data analysis, qualitative evaluation was performed by calculating the severity of risk effect and determining the cumulative risk index, based on which 25 CRFs of CRCBPs were identified for more accurate evaluation. At this stage, the identified CRFs were evaluated based on multi-criteria decision-making techniques and using the TOPSIS technique. Results show that the ten CRFs of CRCBPs are external threats from international relations, exchange rate changes, bank interest rate fluctuations, traffic licenses, access to skilled labor, changes in regional regulations, the condition of adjacent buildings, fluctuations and changes in inflation, failure to select a suitable and qualified consultant, and employer’s previous experiences and records. Obviously, the current study’s results and findings can be considered by CRCBPs in both the private and public sectors for proper effective risk identification, evaluation, and mitigation.

scholarly journals Determining and assessing the risks of commercial and recreational complex building projects in developing countries: a survey of experts in Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 259-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mojtaba Khosravi ◽  
Hadi Sarvari ◽  
Daniel W.M. Chan ◽  
Matteo Cristofaro ◽  
Zhen Chen
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Population Census ◽  
Skilled Workers ◽  
Building Projects ◽  
Statistical Population ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Complex Building

Purpose As construction of commercial and recreational complex building projects (CRCBPs) is one of the most important issues in many developing countries and requires a very high cost of implementation, it is important to identify and prioritize the risks of such projects. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to identify and rank the risks of CRCBPs by studying the case of the “Hamedanian Memorial,” a CRCBP in Iran. Design/methodology/approach To pursue this aim, a descriptive-survey method was used. The statistical population of the study consists of 30 experienced experts (consultants, contractors and employers) of the “Hamedanian Memorial” project selected according to the Cochran formula and minimum population census. A questionnaire was used as the data collection tool, administered in all stages of risk identification and evaluation, and was devised by using library and field methods based on the literature and research background, as well as interviewing experts in the risk identification and evaluation stages. Kendall’s coefficient of agreement was used to validate the experts’ opinions in the risk identification stage. The ranking in qualitative evaluation was done based on the risk intensity and the cumulative risk index. Findings The results show that the risks are associated with exchange rate fluctuation, inflation fluctuation, access to skilled workers, contractors’ claims and foreign threats from international relations. Originality/value The results and findings of the present study can be of interest to the executives of large commercial, leisure, public and private projects in developing and developed countries; understanding risks can significantly improve the decision-making process of CRCBPs.

scholarly journals Which adolescents develop persistent substance dependence in adulthood? Using population-representative longitudinal data to inform universal risk assessment

2015 ◽  
Vol 46 (4) ◽  
pp. 877-889 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. H. Meier ◽  
W. Hall ◽  
A. Caspi ◽  
D. W. Belsky ◽  
M. Cerdá ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Universal Screening ◽  
Substance Dependence ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Cumulative Risk ◽  
Simple Algorithm ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Screening Tools ◽  
Total Risk ◽  
Adolescent Risk

BackgroundTo our knowledge, there are no universal screening tools for substance dependence that (1) were developed using a population-based sample, (2) estimate total risk briefly and inexpensively by incorporating a relatively small number of well-established risk factors, and (3) aggregate risk factors using a simple algorithm. We created a universal screening tool that incorporates these features to identify adolescents at risk for persistent substance dependence in adulthood.MethodParticipants were members of a representative cohort of 1037 individuals born in Dunedin, New Zealand in 1972–1973 and followed prospectively to age 38 years, with 95% retention. We assessed a small set of childhood and adolescent risk factors: family history of substance dependence, childhood psychopathology (conduct disorder, depression), early exposure to substances, frequent substance use in adolescence, sex, and childhood socioeconomic status. We defined the outcome (persistent substance dependence in adulthood) as dependence on one or more of alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, or hard drugs at ⩾3 assessment ages: 21, 26, 32, and 38 years.ResultsA cumulative risk index, a simple sum of nine childhood and adolescent risk factors, predicted persistent substance dependence in adulthood with considerable accuracy (AUC = 0.80).ConclusionsA cumulative risk score can accurately predict which adolescents in the general population will develop persistent substance dependence in adulthood.

scholarly journals A Cumulative Risk Model of Child Physical Maltreatment Potential: Findings From a Community-Based Study

2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (8) ◽  
pp. 1287-1305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diogo Lamela ◽  
Bárbara Figueiredo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Trigger Point ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Cumulative Risk ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Cumulative Risk Model ◽  
Physical Maltreatment

Previous studies have identified the predictive risk factors of child physical maltreatment (CPM). However, a significant number of these studies assessed risk factors in isolation. The cumulative risk hypothesis postulates that health problems are caused by the accumulation of risk factors, independently of the presence or absence of specific risk indicators. Few studies examined the effect of cumulative risk on CPM potential. This study aimed to test two concurrent models of cumulative risk of CPM potential by investigating whether CPM potential was better predicted by a threshold cumulative risk model or a linear cumulative risk model. Data from the National Representative Study of Psychosocial Context of Child Abuse and Neglect in Portugal were used. Parents of school-age children ( N = 796) answered to self-report measures regarding sociodemographic variables, history of child maltreatment, psychological distress, and CPM potential. A cumulative risk index was computed, comprising 10 dichotomized risk factors. Evidence for a threshold cumulative effect was found. Additional bivariate logistic regressions revealed that the odds for high-potential CPM were dramatically higher for those parents with six or more risk factors when compared with parents with any one risk factor. By testing and confirming a threshold cumulative effect on CPM potential, it was possible to find a “trigger point” from which a dramatic increase in child physical maltreatment potential occurs.

scholarly journals Modeling the interplay of multilevel risk factors for future academic and behavior problems: A person-centered approach

2010 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 313-335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie T. Lanza ◽  
Brittany L. Rhoades ◽  
Robert L. Nix ◽  
Mark T. Greenberg ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Academic Achievement ◽  
Externalizing Problems ◽  
Latent Class ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Cumulative Risk ◽  
Negative Outcomes ◽  
Risk Profiles ◽  
White Children ◽  
Person Centered Approach

AbstractThis study identified profiles of 13 risk factors across child, family, school, and neighborhood domains in a diverse sample of children in kindergarten from four US locations (n= 750; 45% minority). It then examined the relation of those early risk profiles to externalizing problems, school failure, and low academic achievement in Grade 5. A person-centered approach, latent class analysis, revealed four unique risk profiles, which varied considerably across urban African American, urban White, and rural White children. Profiles characterized by several risks that cut across multiple domains conferred the highest risk for negative outcomes. Compared to a variable-centered approach, such as a cumulative risk index, these findings provide a more nuanced understanding of the early precursors to negative outcomes. For example, results suggested that urban children in single-parent homes that have few other risk factors (i.e., show at least average parenting warmth and consistency and report relatively low stress and high social support) are at quite low risk for externalizing problems, but at relatively high risk for poor grades and low academic achievement. These findings provide important information for refining and targeting preventive interventions to groups of children who share particular constellations of risk factors.

Environmental risk factors and children’s literacy skills during the transition to elementary school

2009 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joana Cadima ◽  
R.A. McWilliam ◽  
Teresa Leal
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Cumulative Risk ◽  
First Grade ◽  
Literacy Skills ◽  
Family Risk Factors ◽  
Family Risk ◽  
The Family ◽  
Children's Literacy

This study examined the effects of the accumulation of family risk factors on children’s literacy skills, both in preschool and in first grade. Children’s ( N = 106) vocabulary, conventions of print, phonological awareness, knowledge of letters, reading decoding, and reading comprehension were assessed. Family risk factors, consisting of household composition, years of maternal education, job situation of the mother, and income level of the family, were combined to create a cumulative risk index. Canonical correlation and multiple regression analyses were performed. Results revealed the negative impact of cumulative risk index on both the preschool and first-grade literacy skills. In addition, the number of risk factors present in the family context negatively predicted the majority of the firstgrade literacy skills, after taking preschool skills into account. The results provide further evidence of the negative impact of the accumulation of family risks on child literacy development and call attention to the importance of early experiences for later academic achievement.

Why do the design stage elemental cost plan and final tender sum differ in New Zealand?

2015 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 116-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johnson Adafin ◽  
James O.B. Rotimi ◽  
Suzanne Wilkinson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Design Stage ◽  
Information Quantity ◽  
Building Projects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Participants ◽  
Cost Plan

Purpose – The aim of this study is to investigate the reasons for disparity between design stage elemental cost plan and final tender sum (contract sum) in building procurement. A number of risk factors responsible for such variation were identified through case study projects from which data were extracted. Design/methodology/approach – Literature review determined the risk factors inherent in the preparation of design stage elemental cost plan. Interviews and thematic analysis identified the risk factors responsible for the disparity between design stage elemental cost plans and final tender sums. Analysis of documents obtained from the archives of study participants (consultant quantity surveyors) complemented responses from the interviews. Findings – The review revealed a number of inherent risks in the design stage elemental cost plan development. The interviews further indicated that risks have an impact on and are responsible for the deviations experienced. The assessment of these risk elements could assist in determining the final tender sum from cost plans. Research limitations/implications – Findings revealed disparity between elemental cost plans and final tender sums in the region of −14 and +16 per cent. The risk factors identified were responsible for the deviations observed. With this information, Quantity Surveyors are more able to accurately forecast final tender sums of building projects from cost plans through proper risk identification and analysis, thus increasing the accuracy of design stage elemental costing. Originality/value – To the best of the knowledge of the researchers, there is no recent documentary evidence of an investigation into the reasons for disparity between design stage elemental cost plan and final tender sum in traditional building procurement in New Zealand construction.

Complex evaluation of health state of population residing under combined exposure to noise and chemical risk factors caused by activities of major airport hub

2019 ◽  
pp. 12-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantin P. Luzhetsky ◽  
Ol’ga Yu. Ustinova ◽  
Svetlana S. Kleyn ◽  
Dmitrii N. Koshurnikov ◽  
Svetlana S. Vekovshinina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Nervous System ◽  
Serum Level ◽  
Reference Group ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Case Based Reasoning ◽  
Health State ◽  
Upper Respiratory Tract ◽  
Combined Exposure ◽  
Complex Evaluation

Complex evaluation covered health state of population residing under combined exposure to physical (noise) and chemical (manganese, formaldehyde, phenol, benzene) risk factors caused by airport activities. Findings are unacceptable chronic risks expressed through risk index for development of nervous system diseases (HI=9.45–51.75), respiratory disorders (HQ=2,62–6,95) and immune system ailments (HQ=1,75–4,23). In children, functional disorders of nervous system (parasympathetic type vegetative dystonia) and respiratory organs (chronic disorders of upper respiratory tract) are diagnosed 1,5–1,8 times higher than those in the reference group; over 5% of children aged 4–7 years demonstrate bilateral conductive deafness. Reliable cause-effect relationships were revealed between functional nervous system disorders (parasympathetic type vegetative dystonia, astheno-neurotic syndrome, vascular cephalgia, sleep disorders) and increased serum level of manganese and benzene (proportion of explained dispersion, R2=0,55–0,87, 26,44≤F≥389,54), between respiratory diseases (chronic rhinitis, chronic pharyngitis) and increased serum level of formaldehyde (R2=0,73–0,91; 350,8≤F≥778,3), with high statistic significance (p < 0,0001). For sanitary epidemiologic examination purposes, case-based reasoning for relationships of children health disorders, management decisions, the authors suggested and justified a list of parameters for negative combined impact of risk factors caused by airport hub.

The Effects of Decision Aid Orientation on Risk Factor Identification and Audit Test Planning

2002 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 39-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean C. Bedard ◽  
Lynford E. Graham
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Decision Aid ◽  
Decision Aids ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Matched Pair ◽  
Audit Planning ◽  
Audit Firms ◽  
Risk Management Strategies

In auditing, risk management involves identifying client facts or issues that may affect engagement risk, and planning evidence-gathering strategies accordingly. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether auditors' identification of risk factors and planning of audit tests is affected by decision aid orientation, i.e., a “negative” focus wherein client risk and its consequences are emphasized, or a “positive” focus where such factors are not emphasized. Specifically, we expect that auditors will identify more risk factors using a negatively oriented risk identification decision aid, but only when engagement risk is relatively high. We address this issue in the context of auditors' knowledge of actual clients, manipulating decision aid orientation as negative or positive in a matched-pair design. Results show that auditors using the negative decision aid orientation identify more risk factors than do those using a positive orientation, for their higher-risk clients. We also find that decisions to apply substantive tests are more directly linked to specific risk factors identified than to direct risk assessments. Further, our results show that auditors with repeat engagement experience with the client identify more risk factors. The findings of this study imply that audit firms may improve their risk management strategies through simple changes in the design of decision aids used to support audit planning.

scholarly journals Cumulative Risks from Stressor Exposures and Personal Risk Factors in the Workplace: Examples from a Scoping Review

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 5850
Author(s):  
Mary A. Fox ◽  
Richard Todd Niemeier ◽  
Naomi Hudson ◽  
Miriam R. Siegel ◽  
Gary Scott Dotson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Scoping Review ◽  
Multiple Stressors ◽  
Cumulative Risk ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Personal Factors ◽  
Exposure Limits ◽  
Personal Risk ◽  
Personal Risk Factors

Protecting worker and public health involves an understanding of multiple determinants, including exposures to biological, chemical, or physical agents or stressors in combination with other determinants including type of employment, health status, and individual behaviors. This has been illustrated during the COVID-19 pandemic by increased exposure and health risks for essential workers and those with pre-existing conditions, and mask-wearing behavior. Health risk assessment practices for environmental and occupational health typically do not incorporate multiple stressors in combination with personal risk factors. While conceptual developments in cumulative risk assessment to inform a more holistic approach to these real-life conditions have progressed, gaps remain, and practical methods and applications are rare. This scoping review characterizes existing evidence of combined stressor exposures and personal factors and risk to foster methods for occupational cumulative risk assessment. The review found examples from many workplaces, such as manufacturing, offices, and health care; exposures to chemical, physical, and psychosocial stressors combined with modifiable and unmodifiable determinants of health; and outcomes including respiratory function and disease, cancers, cardio-metabolic diseases, and hearing loss, as well as increased fertility, menstrual dysfunction and worsened mental health. To protect workers, workplace exposures and modifiable and unmodifiable characteristics should be considered in risk assessment and management. Data on combination exposures can improve assessments and risk estimates and inform protective exposure limits and management strategies.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document