scholarly journals Probabilistic Flood Hazard Maps from Monte Carlo Derived Peak Flow Values—An Application to Flood Risk Management in Zamora City (Spain)

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 6629
Author(s):  
Julio Garrote ◽  
Evelyng Peña ◽  
Andrés Díez-Herrero
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Peak Flow ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Flood Frequency Analysis ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Flood Hazard Maps

All flood hazard and risk assessment suffer from a certain degree of uncertainty due to multiple factors, such as flood frequency analysis, hydrodynamic model calibration, or flood damage (magnitude–damage functions) models. The uncertainty linked to the flood frequency analysis is one of the most important factors (previous and present estimation point to 40%). Flood frequency analysis uncertainty has been approached from different points of view, such as the application of complex statistical models, the regionalization processes of peak flows, or the inclusion of non-systematic data. Here, we present an achievable approach to defining the uncertainty linked to flood frequency analysis by using the Monte Carlo method. Using the city of Zamora as the study site, the uncertainty is delimited by confidence intervals of a peak flow quantile of a 500-year return period. Probabilistic maps are derived from hydrodynamic results, and further analysis include flood hazard maps for human loss of stability and vehicle damage. Although the effect of this uncertainty is conditioned by the shape of the terrain, the results obtained may allow managers to achieve more consistent land-use planning. All those Zamora city results point out the probable underestimation of flood hazard (the higher hazard areas increase around 20%) and risk when the uncertainty analysis is not considered, thus limiting the efficiency of flood risk management tasks.

scholarly journals Managing Flood Hazard in a Complex Cross-Border Region Using Sentinel-1 SAR and Sentinel-2 Optical Data: A Case Study from Prut River Basin (NE Romania)

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 4934
Author(s):  
Cătălin I. Cîmpianu ◽  
Alin Mihu-Pintilie ◽  
Cristian C. Stoleriu ◽  
Andrei Urzică ◽  
Elena Huţanu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Complex Cross ◽  
Flood Hazard Maps ◽  
Prut River ◽  
Sentinel 2

In this study, an alternative solution for flood risk management in complex cross-border regions is presented. In these cases, due to different flood risk management legislative approaches, there is a lack of joint cooperation between the involved countries. As a main consequence, LiDAR-derived digital elevation models and accurate flood hazard maps obtained by means of hydrological and hydraulic modeling are missing or are incomplete. This is also the case for the Prut River, which acts as a natural boundary between European Union (EU) member Romania and non-EU countries Ukraine and Republic of Moldova. Here, flood hazard maps were developed under the European Floods Directive (2007/60/EC) only for the Romanian territory and only for the 1% exceeding probability (respectively floods that can occur once every 100 years). For this reason, in order to improve the flood hazard management in the area and consider all cross-border territories, a fully remote sensing approach was considered. Using open-source SAR Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data characterized by an improved temporal resolution, we managed to capture the maximum spatial extent of a flood event that took place in the aforementioned river sector (middle Prut River course) during the 24 and 27 June 2020. Moreover, by means of flood frequency analysis, the development of a transboundary flood hazard map with an assigned probability, specific to the maximum flow rate recorded during the event, was realized.

Exploring frequency analysis alternatives on instantaneous peak flow, in the context of flood plain delineation in Southern Québec, Canada.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Ricard ◽  
Alexis Bédard-Therrien ◽  
Annie-Claude ACP Parent ◽  
Brian Morse ◽  
François Anctil
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Peak Flow ◽  
Flood Plain ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Regional Frequency Analysis ◽  
Flood Frequency Analysis ◽  
Flow Data ◽  
Specific Context ◽  
Pros And Cons ◽  
Regional Frequency

A flood frequency analysis is conducted using instantaneous peak flow data over a hydrologic sub-region of southern Québec following three distinct methodological frameworks. First, the analysis is conducted locally using available instantaneous peak flow data. Second, the analysis is conducted locally using daily peak flow data processed in order to consider the peak flow effect. Third, a regional frequency analysis is conducted pooling all available instantaneous peak flow data over the study area. Results reveal a notable diversity in the resulting recurrence peak flow estimates and related uncertainties from one analysis to another. Expert judgement appears essential to arbitrate which alternative should be operated considering a specific context of application for flood plain delineation. Pros and cons for each approach are discussed. We finally encourage the use of a diversity of approaches in order to provide a robust assessment of uncertainty affecting peak flow estimates.

Application of Gumbel’s Distribution Method for Flood Frequency Analysis of Lower Ganga Basin (Farakka Barrage Station), West Bengal, India

2021 ◽  
pp. 51-58
Author(s):  
Kajal Kumar Mandal ◽  
K. Dharanirajan ◽  
Sabyasachi Sarkar
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Flood Frequency Analysis ◽  
Ganga Basin ◽  
Distribution Method ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Gumbel’S Distribution ◽  
Farakka Barrage

The analysis of flood frequency will depend on the historical peak discharge data for at least 10 years. This study has taken into account peak annual maximum discharge data for 72 years (1949 to 2020). The discharge data was collected from the Farakka Barrage Gauging station (24°48'15.10" N and 87°55'52.70" E) situated in the upper part of lower Ganga basin. The flood frequency analysis of the lower Ganga basin’s upper portions has been carried out using Gumbel’s frequency distribution method. Gumbel’s method (XT) is a prediction analysing statistical approach. The discharge data was tabulated in descending order and rank has been assigned based on the discharge volume. The return period was calculated based on Weibull’s formula (P) for this analysis. The flood frequency data was plotted on a graph where X-axis shows the return period and the Yaxis is the discharge value. The R2 value of this graph is 0.9998 which describe Gumbel’s distribution method is best for the flood frequency analysis. The flood frequency analysis is an essential step to assess the flood hazard.

Identification of suitable copulas for bivariate frequency analysis of flood peak and flood volume data

2011 ◽  
Vol 42 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 193-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hemant Chowdhary ◽  
Luis A. Escobar ◽  
Vijay P. Singh
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Peak Flow ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Flood Frequency Analysis ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Volume Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Goodness Of Fit Tests

Multivariate flood frequency analysis, involving flood peak flow, volume and duration, has been traditionally accomplished by employing available functional bivariate and multivariate frequency distributions that have a restriction on the marginals to be from the same family of distributions. The copula concept overcomes this restriction by allowing a combination of arbitrarily chosen marginal types. It also provides a wider choice of admissible dependence structure as compared to the conventional approach. The availability of a vast variety of copula types makes the selection of an appropriate copula family for different hydrological applications a non-trivial task. Graphical and analytic goodness-of-fit tests for testing the suitability of copulas are beginning to evolve and are being developed; there is limited experience of their usage at present, especially in the hydrological field. This paper provides a step-wise procedure for copula selection and illustrates its application to bivariate flood frequency analysis, involving flood peak flow and volume data. Several graphical procedures, tail dependence characteristics, and formal goodness-of-fit tests involving a parametric bootstrap-based technique are considered while investigating the relative applicability of six copula families. The Clayton copula has been identified as a valid model for the particular flood peak flow and volume data set considered in the study.

Rye Island, 2010: Impact of the flooding on the groundwater level

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michaela Červeňanská ◽  
Dana Baroková ◽  
Andrej Šoltész
Keyword(s):  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Groundwater Modeling ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Danube River ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Management Plans ◽  
Contaminated Drinking Water ◽  
Flood Hazard Maps ◽  
Flood Risk Management Plans

AbstractDuring the flood situations in May and June 2010, the culmination of the Váh River and the Danube River was accompanied by the groundwater level rising in the Rye Island, in some boreholes even to their maximum measured levels. The increased groundwater level caused major problems, e.g. flooded cellars and underground spaces, contaminated drinking water in wells, flooded railways and farmlands. As a part of the research concentrating on the groundwater flooding phenomena in the Rye Island, the flood situation from the year 2010 was reconstructed, establishing the basis for a construction of the flood hazard maps and flood risk management plans. The problem was solved with a MODFLOW numerical model using the Groundwater Modeling System.

scholarly journals Flood fatality hazard and flood damage hazard: combining multiple hazard characteristics into meaningful maps for spatial planning

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (6) ◽  
pp. 1297-1309 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. M. de Bruijn ◽  
F. Klijn ◽  
B. van de Pas ◽  
C. T. J. Slager
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Spatial Planning ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
The Past

Abstract. For comprehensive flood risk management, accurate information on flood hazards is crucial. While in the past an estimate of potential flood consequences in large areas was often sufficient to make decisions on flood protection, there is currently an increasing demand to have detailed hazard maps available to be able to consider other risk-reducing measures as well. Hazard maps are a prerequisite for spatial planning, but can also support emergency management, the design of flood mitigation measures, and the setting of insurance policies. The increase in flood risks due to population growth and economic development in hazardous areas in the past shows that sensible spatial planning is crucial to prevent risks increasing further. Assigning the least hazardous locations for development or adapting developments to the actual hazard requires comprehensive flood hazard maps. Since flood hazard is a multi-dimensional phenomenon, many different maps could be relevant. Having large numbers of maps to take into account does not, however, make planning easier. To support flood risk management planning we therefore introduce a new approach in which all relevant flood hazard parameters can be combined into two comprehensive maps of flood damage hazard and flood fatality hazard.

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