scholarly journals Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses of Human and Organizational Risks in Fire Safety Systems for High-Rise Residential Buildings with Probabilistic T-H-O-Risk Methodology

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 2590
Author(s):  
Samson Tan ◽  
Darryl Weinert ◽  
Paul Joseph ◽  
Khalid Moinuddin

Given that existing fire risk models often ignore human and organizational errors (HOEs) ultimately leading to underestimation of risks by as much as 80%, this study employs a technical-human-organizational risk (T-H-O-Risk) methodology to address knowledge gaps in current state-of-the-art probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) for high-rise residential buildings with the following goals: (1) Develop an improved PRA methodology to address concerns that deterministic, fire engineering approaches significantly underestimate safety levels that lead to inaccurate fire safety levels. (2) Enhance existing fire safety verification methods by incorporating probabilistic risk approach and HOEs for (i) a more inclusive view of risk, and (ii) to overcome the deterministic nature of current verification methods. (3) Perform comprehensive sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to address uncertainties in numerical estimates used in fault tree/event trees, Bayesian network and system dynamics and their propagation in a probabilistic model. (4) Quantification of human and organizational risks for high-rise residential buildings which contributes towards a policy agenda in the direction of a sustainable, risk-based regulatory regime. This research contributes to the development of the next-generation building codes and risk assessment methodologies.

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (24) ◽  
pp. 8918
Author(s):  
Samson Tan ◽  
Darryl Weinert ◽  
Paul Joseph ◽  
Khalid Moinuddin

The current paper presents an application of an alternative probabilistic risk assessment methodology that incorporates technical, human, and organizational risks (T-H-O-Risk) using Bayesian network (BN) and system dynamics (SD) modelling. Seven case studies demonstrate the application of this holistic approach to the designs of high-rise residential buildings. An incremental risk approach allows for quantification of the impact of human and organizational errors (HOEs) on different fire safety systems. The active systems considered are sprinklers, building occupant warning systems, smoke detectors, and smoke control systems. The paper presents detailed results from T-H-O-Risk modelling for HOEs and risk variations over time utilizing the SD modelling to compare risk acceptance in the seven case studies located in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore, and UK. Results indicate that HOEs impact risks in active systems up to ~33%. Large variations are observed in the reliability of active systems due to HOEs over time. SD results indicate that a small behavioral change in ’risk perception’ of a building management team can lead to a very large risk to life variations over time through the self-reinforcing feedback loops. The quantification of difference in expected risk to life due to technical, human, and organizational risks for seven buildings for each of 16 trial designs is a novel aspect of this study. The research is an important contribution to the development of the next generation building codes and risk assessment methods.


2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-40
Author(s):  
MJ Uddin ◽  
A Adnan ◽  
N Sultana ◽  
MG Muktadir ◽  
RC Ghosh

Fire safety and security system in high-rise buildings has been a significant issue from the last century. However, there are numerous provisions for safety measures from such fires and the magnitude and nature of the problem of this hazard has been unknown. This study identifies the location of high-rise buildings in Tangail pourashava through an extensive survey and then identifies the unique fire safety problems of those buildings and their associated fire risk. As it turns out, most of those buildings are highly vulnerable to fire risk due to lack of major fire fighting equipments and defiance of related laws and regulations. The study then addresses the means to provide fire safety in those buildings from both design and codes perspectives. It elaborates on the need to provide both building and occupant based protection to achieve the best results. It concludes with an overview of the special problems associated with high-rise buildings combined with specific use and occupancy-related requirements, employee training and response.J. Environ. Sci. & Natural Resources, 10(1): 33-40 2017


Fire ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Michael Gerges ◽  
Peter Demian ◽  
Zulfikar Adamu

As the possibility of safe escape is one of the most crucial aspects of a building’s fire safety features, understanding of human behaviour under fire conditions is important for a successful evacuation. Although most of today’s buildings are equipped with fire safety systems, a fire can still occur at anytime and anywhere in a building and have devastating consequences. In the last decade, researchers and practitioners have used information technology to assist with fire safety design and emergency management. Building Information Modelling (BIM) is an exemplar process whose underpinning digital technology has been helpful for fire safety design, simulation, and analysis, but there is a lack of research on how BIM-based models combined with agent-based simulations can help improve evacuation via effective navigation and wayfinding in high-rise residential buildings. Customising evacuation instructions based on BIM, simulation results and occupant location, and delivery of these bespoke instructions to occupants’ smartphones during a fire emergency is relatively novel and research is needed to realise the potential of this approach. Therefore, this study investigates how customised evacuation instructions delivered to each occupant in a high-rise residential building could result in a faster evacuation during a fire incident. The research adopted a case study building and used Pathfinder (agent-based evacuation simulation software) to simulate evacuation from this eleven-floor high-rise residential building in Cairo, Egypt. Constraining evacuees (simulated agents in Pathfinder) to take particular exit routes was used as a proxy for delivering customised evacuation instructions to actual evacuees. Simulation results show that, in general, allowing the use of lifts for the benefit of disabled occupants could lead to their misuse by able-bodied occupants; evacuees would attempt to use the first visible point of exit regardless of how crowded it is. With optimally customised instructions, the evacuation time was, on average, 17.6 min (almost 50%) shorter than when the occupant’s choice of egress route was simulated based on standard path planning factors such as route length, nearby crowds and visible hazards. With evacuation instructions sent via smartphones, occupants could exit more rapidly via alternative routes. Such bespoke instructions were shown to reduce the adverse effects of crowdedness and uneven distribution of occupants along vertical and horizontal evacuation routes on evacuation time.


2017 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
pp. 50-57
Author(s):  
Ruxandra Dârmon

The fire safety objectives are primarily focused on life safety issues. In addition, for particular cases, property protection and business continuity are taken into account when developing Fire Safety Strategies. The purpose of this article is to assess the fire risk associated with a timber structure within an atrium space, carrying out a qualitative and quantitative analysis.For probabilistic risk assessments, the criteria are set such that the probability of a given undesirable event is acceptably low, or As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP). The acceptance criteria vary depending on the fire safety objectives, therefore, for this study, the property protection has been considered beside the life safety of the occupants.


Author(s):  
C. M. Benson ◽  
S. Elsmore

AbstractFollowing the Grenfell tower incident, fire safety is being re-examined around the world. One key area is planning and building approval. It has been suggested that expert fire authority advice is being ignored in building and planning control. In this paper, freedom of information requests were submitted to fifty local government authorities (covering approx. one quarter of the England and Wales population), and three fire authorities, to examine their consultation process. No prior study has examined this relationship in detail. This work attempts to identify who is assessing fire safety, what expertise exists in the system, and what guidance is available from central government. The impact of austerity on the ability to effectively manage fire safety is also discussed. Results show local government authorities have a large degree of discretion with no guidance from central government on fire safety expertise needed to assess non-prescriptive building standards, and only limited guidance on how fire authority advice should be used by local government. The result is a dramatically different level of engagement of fire authorities, and implementation of fire safety advice. There does not appear to be any guarantee that fire expertise is being employed for the purpose of fire safety in building/planning processes. This means the building regulatory regime may be one of the many issues contributing to fire safety issues. Stronger legislation is required to prevent a post-code lottery of fire safety implementation.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2078 (1) ◽  
pp. 012074
Author(s):  
Xiaosha Wu ◽  
Shixiang Tian ◽  
Wei Wang ◽  
Zebiao Jiang ◽  
Kai Guo

Abstract Due to the characteristics of high-rise buildings, such as dense personnel, complex structure and many combustibles, fire safety problems are more prominent. Aiming at the fire problem of high-rise buildings, based on the Internet of Things and big data technology, the intelligent fire risk perception system of high-rise buildings is studied. Through the functional modules of fire water monitoring system, intelligent electricity monitoring system and fire automatic alarm system, the hydraulic and water level of fire water, the current and voltage values of key nodes such as distribution cabinets, and the on-duty personnel in fire control room are mastered in real time, so as to grasp the specific location of fire in time and accurately, so as to realize the intelligent control of fire safety of high-rise buildings.


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