scholarly journals Analysis of Meteorological Factor Multivariate Models for Medium- and Long-Term Photovoltaic Solar Power Forecasting Using Long Short-Term Memory

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 316
Author(s):  
Namrye Son ◽  
Mina Jung
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Solar power generation is an increasingly popular renewable energy topic. Photovoltaic (PV) systems are installed on buildings to efficiently manage energy production and consumption. Because of its physical properties, electrical energy is produced and consumed simultaneously; therefore solar energy must be predicted accurately to maintain a stable power supply. To develop an efficient energy management system (EMS), 22 multivariate numerical models were constructed by combining solar radiation, sunlight, humidity, temperature, cloud cover, and wind speed. The performance of the models was compared by applying a modified version of the traditional long short-term memory (LSTM) approach. The experimental results showed that the six meteorological factors influence the solar power forecast regardless of the season. These are, from most to least important: solar radiation, sunlight, wind speed, temperature, cloud cover, and humidity. The models are rated for suitability to provide medium- and long-term solar power forecasts, and the modified LSTM demonstrates better performance than the traditional LSTM.

scholarly journals Meteorological Factor Multivariate Models Affecting Solar Power Prediction using Long Short-term Memory

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 142-147 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Physical Nature ◽  
Meteorological Factor ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Solar power systems have been recently installed in buildings to efficiently manage their energy consumption and production in them. Because electrical energy is produced and consumed simultaneously owing to its physical nature, it is necessary to predict the exact solar power necessary to maintain a stable power supply. To manage the building energy management system (BEMS) effectively, this paper proposes 6 models (solar radiation, sunlight, humidity, temperature, cloud cover, wind speed) and compares the performances of these models. Through this comparison, we solved the traditional long short-term memory (LSTM) problem and proposed a new LSTM. It was determined that the meteorological factors for forecasting solar power varied by season. The performance was shown in order of solar radiation, sunshine, wind speed, temperature, cloudiness and humidity at annual average. Additionally, the proposed LSTM performed better than the traditional LSTM.

scholarly journals AE-LSTM Based Deep Learning Model for Degradation Rate Influenced Energy Estimation of a PV System

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
pp. 4373
Author(s):  
Muhammad Aslam ◽  
Jae-Myeong Lee ◽  
Mustafa Altaha ◽  
Seung-Jae Lee ◽  
Sugwon Hong
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Degradation Rate ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Pv System ◽  
Energy Estimation ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

With the increase in penetration of photovoltaics (PV) into the power system, the correct prediction of return on investment requires accurate prediction of decrease in power output over time. Degradation rates and corresponding degraded energy estimation must be known in order to predict power delivery accurately. Solar radiation plays a key role in long-term solar energy predictions. A combination of auto-encoder and long short-term memory (AE-LSTM) based deep learning approach is adopted for long-term solar radiation forecasting. First, the auto-encoder (AE) is trained for the feature extraction, and then fine-tuning with long short-term memory (LSTM) is done to get the final prediction. The input data consist of clear sky global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and historical solar radiation. After forecasting the solar radiation for three years, the corresponding degradation rate (DR) influenced energy potentials of an a-Si PV system is estimated. The estimated energy is useful economically for planning and installation of energy systems like microgrids, etc. The method of solar radiation forecasting and DR influenced energy estimation is compared with the traditional methods to show the efficiency of the proposed method.

scholarly journals Algorithm design for wind prediction in Berakit Bay, Bintan Island using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method

2021 ◽  
Vol 944 (1) ◽  
pp. 012006
Author(s):  
D R Pratama ◽  
I Jaya ◽  
M Iqbal
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Algorithm Design ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Average Wind Speed ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Average Wind ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
System Designs

Abstract Wind speed is a crucial parameter alongside coastal areas, especially Indonesia. Above average wind speed can cause harmful effects on human activities. This study uses wind speed data from Berakit Bay, Bintan Island is a potential location for coastal community settlement, fisheries, and tourist activities. The wind parameter then predicted using the Long Short-Term Memory or LSTM algorithm. This algorithm is able to study long-term dependencies by converting simple nervous system designs into specialized blocks containing cells. It is suitable to be applied to long-term wind predictions where the wind speed at this time is very influential with the wind speed in the future. In preparing the LSTM, the data preprocessing and the architecture used will determine the prediction results. In this study, four different architectures were made in order to determine the most optimal architecture. The results show that the LSTM architecture is able to obtain a relatively good RMSE value of 1.87 and an accuracy of 39.40% with the use of two LSTM layers, 256 units in the first layer and 128 in the second layer. The LSTM algorithm in predicting wind can also be applied to other areas in Indonesia.

scholarly journals Air pollution forecasting application based on deep learning model and optimization algorithm

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Azim Heydari ◽  
Meysam Majidi Nezhad ◽  
Davide Astiaso Garcia ◽  
Farshid Keynia ◽  
Livio De Santoli
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Combined Cycle ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

AbstractAir pollution monitoring is constantly increasing, giving more and more attention to its consequences on human health. Since Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) are the major pollutants, various models have been developed on predicting their potential damages. Nevertheless, providing precise predictions is almost impossible. In this study, a new hybrid intelligent model based on long short-term memory (LSTM) and multi-verse optimization algorithm (MVO) has been developed to predict and analysis the air pollution obtained from Combined Cycle Power Plants. In the proposed model, long short-term memory model is a forecaster engine to predict the amount of produced NO2 and SO2 by the Combined Cycle Power Plant, where the MVO algorithm is used to optimize the LSTM parameters in order to achieve a lower forecasting error. In addition, in order to evaluate the proposed model performance, the model has been applied using real data from a Combined Cycle Power Plant in Kerman, Iran. The datasets include wind speed, air temperature, NO2, and SO2 for five months (May–September 2019) with a time step of 3-h. In addition, the model has been tested based on two different types of input parameters: type (1) includes wind speed, air temperature, and different lagged values of the output variables (NO2 and SO2); type (2) includes just lagged values of the output variables (NO2 and SO2). The obtained results show that the proposed model has higher accuracy than other combined forecasting benchmark models (ENN-PSO, ENN-MVO, and LSTM-PSO) considering different network input variables. Graphic abstract

scholarly journals Interval prediction method based on Long-Short Term Memory networks for system integrated of hydro, wind and solar power

2019 ◽  
Vol 158 ◽  
pp. 6176-6182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhendong Zhang ◽  
Hui Qin ◽  
Liqiang Yao ◽  
Jiantao Lu ◽  
Liangge Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Solar Power ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Interval Prediction ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

scholarly journals Near Real-Time Global Solar Radiation Forecasting at Multiple Time-Step Horizons Using the Long Short-Term Memory Network

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 3517 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anh Ngoc-Lan Huynh ◽  
Ravinesh C. Deo ◽  
Duc-Anh An-Vo ◽  
Mumtaz Ali ◽  
Nawin Raj ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Multiple Time Step ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

This paper aims to develop the long short-term memory (LSTM) network modelling strategy based on deep learning principles, tailored for the very short-term, near-real-time global solar radiation (GSR) forecasting. To build the prescribed LSTM model, the partial autocorrelation function is applied to the high resolution, 1 min scaled solar radiation dataset that generates statistically significant lagged predictor variables describing the antecedent behaviour of GSR. The LSTM algorithm is adopted to capture the short- and the long-term dependencies within the GSR data series patterns to accurately predict the future GSR at 1, 5, 10, 15, and 30 min forecasting horizons. This objective model is benchmarked at a solar energy resource rich study site (Bac-Ninh, Vietnam) against the competing counterpart methods employing other deep learning, a statistical model, a single hidden layer and a machine learning-based model. The LSTM model generates satisfactory predictions at multiple-time step horizons, achieving a correlation coefficient exceeding 0.90, outperforming all of the counterparts. In accordance with robust statistical metrics and visual analysis of all tested data, the study ascertains the practicality of the proposed LSTM approach to generate reliable GSR forecasts. The Diebold–Mariano statistic test also shows LSTM outperforms the counterparts in most cases. The study confirms the practical utility of LSTM in renewable energy studies, and broadly in energy-monitoring devices tailored for other energy variables (e.g., hydro and wind energy).

Multi-step wind speed forecasting based on hybrid multi-stage decomposition model and long short-term memory neural network

2020 ◽  
Vol 213 ◽  
pp. 112869 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sinvaldo Rodrigues Moreno ◽  
Ramon Gomes da Silva ◽  
Viviana Cocco Mariani ◽  
Leandro dos Santos Coelho
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Decomposition Model ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Long Short Term Memory
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