scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects—Assumptions and Context

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 109
Author(s):  
Jana Korytárová ◽  
Vít Hromádka
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Economic Efficiency ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Dependent Variables ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Individual Risk Factors

This article deals with the partial outputs of large-scale infrastructure project risk assessment, specifically in the field of road and motorway construction. The Department of Transport spends a large amount of funds on project preparation and implementation, which however, must be allocated effectively, and with knowledge of the risks that may accompany them. Therefore, documentation for decision-making on project financing also includes their analysis. This article monitors the frequency of occurrence of individual risk factors within the qualitative risk analysis, with the support of the national risk register, and identifies dependent variables that represent part of the economic cash flows for determining project economic efficiency. At the same time, it compares these dependent variables identified by sensitivity analysis with critical variables, followed by testing the interaction of the critical variables’ effect on the project efficiency using the Monte Carlo method. A partial section of the research was focused on the analysis of the probability distribution of input variables, especially “the investment costs” and “time savings of infrastructure users” variables. The research findings conclude that it is necessary to pay attention to the setting of statistical characteristics of variables entering the economic efficiency indicator calculations, as the decision of whether or not to accept projects for funding is based on them.

scholarly journals ESTIMATING METHODS OF INVESTMENTS EFFICIENCY TO OWN GENERATION UNDER THE RISK CONDITIONS

2016 ◽  
pp. 78-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. V. Klimovets ◽  
V. A. Zubakin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Economic Efficiency ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Energy Resources ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Investment Projects

The article is devoted to the assessment of the on-site generation effectiveness taking into account the risk associated with the uncertainty of future values of energy prices. It is shown that the economic efficiency is significantly affected by the unevenness of growth in energy prices and the correlation between load profile and graph of wholesale electricity prices.Restrictions on the applying existing approaches to evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects, based on calculation of uniquely defined cash flows, are approved. The paper shows the necessity of taking risks into account in order to increase the quality of decisions given the influence of energy resources prices on project’s economic efficiency and the uncertainty of future price values. Based on the analysis of quantitative methods of risk assessment it is proposed to use fuzzy-set approach as one of the most effective methods in the conditions of uncertainty of future values.

scholarly journals Prevalence of asymptomatic visceral leishmaniasis in human and dog, Benishangul Gumuz regional state, Western Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shibabaw Bejano ◽  
Girma Shumie ◽  
Ashwani Kumar ◽  
Eyuel Asemahagn ◽  
Demekech Damte ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Strong Positive Association ◽  
Individual Risk Factors ◽  
Benishangul Gumuz Region ◽  
Epidemiological Information

Abstract Background: Benishangul-Gumuz region is an important development corridor in Ethiopia. The large-scale projects; the great renaissance dam, mining and agriculture entailed huge environmental modification and settlement pattern changes. Detail epidemiological information of VL in the region is unknown. Materials and Methods: A cross sectional study to assess the epidemiology and risk factors associated with Leishmania infection. Leishmanin skin test (LST) was done for 1342 participants, and for 253 of them rK39 and DAT were done. Thirty-six dogs owned by households with LST positive member(s) were rK39 and DAT tested. A pretested questionnaire was used to capture individual and household characteristics. Results: Of the 89.2% (1197/1342) who availed themselves for LST reading 6.0% were positive. The rk39 and DAT positivity among the 253 tested were 3.2% and 5.9% respectively. In dogs, positivity rates by rK39 and DAT were 13.9% and 5.6% respectively. Of the household and individual risk factors presence of dog in household (P=0.005), male sex (0.003), residence woreda (0.000) and occupation (0.023) showed a strong positive association with LST positivity. Individuals who lived in household who owned dogs were 2.6 times more likely to be LST positive (AOR = 2.6; 95%CI= 1.54, 4.40). Being female decreased by 0.38 times the probability of being LST positive (AOR = 0.38; 95%CI= 0.20, 0.72). Living in Guba and Kurmuk has 4.7 (AOR=4.74, 95% CI 1.83, 12.31) and 5.9 (AOR=5.85, 95%CI 2.27, 15.09) times more risk of being infected. Conclusions: We demonstrated presence of active VL transmission in the areas. Thus, we underline the need to establish the responsible vector(s) and reservoir(s) for comprehensive early containment plan to prevent potentially harmful public health and economic consequence.

scholarly journals Psychological Risk Factors of Terrorist Offenders in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zora A. Sukabdi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Qualitative Data ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Psychological Risk Factors ◽  
Semistructured Interviews ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Individual Risk Factors ◽  
Psychological Risk

Psychological criminogenic factors for identifying terrorist offenders at risk of recidivism in Indonesia remain unclear; hence the adequate assessment to those involved with terrorism and measurement of effective terrorism rehabilitation are questioned. ‘MIKRA’ Risk Assessment was developed to identify individual criminogenic risk factors and needs of terrorist offenders in Indonesia. It is formulated to set up future parameters of effective terrorism rehabilitation. MIKRA study involved thirty-two eminent Indonesian counterterrorism experts and practitioners in semistructured interviews and qualitative data analysis. The study identifies 18 individual risk factors and needs of ideology-based terrorist offenders that are grouped into one of three higher order domains: Motivation, Ideology, and Capability.

scholarly journals Risk assessment in the North Caucasus ski resorts

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. 2227-2234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anton Y. Komarov ◽  
Yury G. Seliverstov ◽  
Tatyana G. Glazovskaya ◽  
Alla S. Turchaninova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Quantitative Data ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Federal Law ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
The North ◽  
Avalanche Risk

Abstract. Avalanches pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of Russia. The constant growth of economic activity, and therefore the increased avalanche hazard, in the North Caucasus region lead to demand for the development of large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments.The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of the Russian Federation (Federal Law 21.12.1994 N 68-FZ, 2016). However, Russian guidelines (SNIP 11-02-96, 2013; SNIP 22-02-2003, 2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. Thus, we discuss these problems by presenting a new avalanche risk assessment approach, with the example of developing but poorly researched ski resort areas. The suggested method includes the formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (appropriate, acceptable and inappropriate) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to an acceptable level or better. The analysis makes it possible to compare risk quantitative data obtained from different regions, analyze them and evaluate the economic feasibility of protection measures.

scholarly journals Identification of risk investment using the risk matrix on railway facilities

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 506-512 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Kowalski ◽  
Mieczyslaw Polonski
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Analysis Process ◽  
Infrastructure Investments ◽  
Questionnaire Surveys ◽  
Individual Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Investment

Abstract The implementation of construction projects is fraught with many hazards that are difficult to determine at the stage of the tender procedure. Usually, the identification of these hazards rests with the contractors. In many cases this diagnosis is not used due to the lack of access to reliable data and easy-to-use computer programs supporting the risk analysis process. In order to facilitate the analysis and risk assessment on Polish railway investments, the authors present a proposal for the assessment of potential hazards that may occur during the implementation of these investments with the use of their point assessment. The proposed method is an original attempt to apply a point assessment of risk factors, whose final result is ready investment risk assessment matrices at the design and execution stage of constructionworks. The basis for the development of matrices was questionnaire surveys involving a large group of experts with extensive professional experience. In addition, the project manager can set the partial weights of hazards separately for time and cost hazards depending on the assessment of the planned project. In order to quickly calculate the weights of individual risk factors for any defined time and cost of partial weights, the authors developed the proposed matrices in the form of a calculation sheet. The matrices can be used to assess potential hazards to future infrastructure investments.

Risk Factors Selection Approach for Nuclear Decommissioning Risk Assessment, Modeling, and Management

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngbede Junior Awodi ◽  
Yong-Kuo Liu ◽  
Abiodun Ayodeji ◽  
Justina Onyinyechukwu Adibeli
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Nuclear Decommissioning ◽  
Method Of Assessment ◽  
Individual Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment And Management

Abstract Due to the complexity of nuclear decommissioning projects, developing a risk assessment model to manage the project risk is paramount. The current study is an attempt to identify all the possible risk factors that can arise in a nuclear decommissioning project. A literature review and the expert judgement method were used to identify and analyse all the possible risk factors. The identified factors are then further refined, and the most important risk factors are selected to be included in the final risk assessment model. This work presents the criteria developed for the simplification, refinement, and assessment of risk factors. The criteria used considered the availability of data, the clarity, and the measurability of the selected factors. Risk factors with a lower rating are eliminated, and those with a similar focus of attention are grouped, enabling the selection of a simplified final list of risk factors for the model. This work also proposed a method of assessment for the remaining factors to allow the quantification of individual risk factors within the model. From the 81 risk factors initially identified, 18 consolidated factors are considered for the development of the risk assessment model. The selection process and risk rating approach presented in this work serves as a critical foundation for the development of a robust nuclear decommissioning risk assessment and management.

Casting Light On Prison Violence in Scotland

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 (8) ◽  
pp. 1065-1078 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Cooke ◽  
Ed Wozniak ◽  
Lorraine Johnstone
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Situational Factors ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Assessment Procedure ◽  
Prison Violence ◽  
Situational Contexts ◽  
Situational Management ◽  
Prison Systems ◽  
Individual Risk Factors

Violence among prisoners and that between prisoners and staff is a perennial concern for all prison systems. That violent prisoners are only violent in certain circumstances suggests a need to develop ways to understand not only the origins of violence in prison but also the situational contexts in which violence occurs. The technology of risk assessment has evolved dramatically in the last decade; however, the focus on individual risk factors has been at the expense of a de-emphasizing of the role of situational factors. In this article, evidence for the importance of situational factors in relation to prison violence is considered. The authors describe the development of a new risk assessment procedure—promoting risk intervention by situational management (PRISM). Within the context of the Scottish Prison Service, they conclude that systematic attention to situational risk factors can help reduce prison violence.

scholarly journals Psychological Risk Factors of Terrorist Offenders in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zora A. Sukabdi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Qualitative Data ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Psychological Risk Factors ◽  
Semistructured Interviews ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Individual Risk Factors ◽  
Psychological Risk

Psychological criminogenic factors for identifying terrorist offenders at risk of recidivism in Indonesia remain unclear; hence the adequate assessment to those involved with terrorism and measurement of effective terrorism rehabilitation are questioned. ‘MIKRA’ Risk Assessment was developed to identify individual criminogenic risk factors and needs of terrorist offenders in Indonesia. It is formulated to set up future parameters of effective terrorism rehabilitation. MIKRA study involved thirty-two eminent Indonesian counterterrorism experts and practitioners in semistructured interviews and qualitative data analysis. The study identifies 18 individual risk factors and needs of ideology-based terrorist offenders that are grouped into one of three higher order domains: Motivation, Ideology, and Capability.

scholarly journals Exploration of the risk factors contained within the UK’s existing domestic abuse risk assessment tool (DASH): do these risk factors have individual predictive validity regarding recidivism?

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louise Almond ◽  
Michelle McManus ◽  
David Brian ◽  
Daniel Peter Merrington
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Domestic Abuse ◽  
Criminal History ◽  
Risk Assessment Tool ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Individual Risk Factors

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore risk factors contained in the existing UK domestic abuse (DA) risk assessment tool: domestic abuse, stalking and harassment and honour-based violence (DASH) for individual predictive validity of DA recidivism using data from Devon and Cornwall Constabulary. Design/methodology/approach In total, 1,441 DA perpetrators were monitored over a 12-month period, and 270 (18.7 per cent) went on to commit a further DA offence. The individual risk factors which were associated and predictive of increased risk of recidivism were identified. Findings Only four of the individual risk factors were significantly associated with an increased risk of DA recidivism: “criminal history”, “problems with alcohol”, “separation” and “frightened”. Therefore, 21 of the risk factor items analysed could not discriminate between non-recidivist and recidivist perpetrators. Only two risk factors were able to significantly predict the recidivist group when compared to the non-recidivist group. These were identified as “criminal history” and “separated”. Of those who did commit a further DA offence in the following 12 months, 133 were violent and 137 were non-violent. The risk factors associated with these types of recidivism are identified. Practical implications The implications for UK police practice and the DASH risk assessment tool are discussed. By identifying key individual factors that can prioritise those individuals likely to recidivate and the severity of that recidivism, this could assist police decision making regarding the response and further prevention of DA incidents. The validation of association between individual factors and DA recidivism should improve the accuracy of risk levels. Originality/value This is the first large-scale validation of the individual risk factors contained within the UK’s DA risk assessment tool. It should be noted that the validity of the DASH tool itself was not examined within the current study.

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