scholarly journals A Model for Assessing the Quantitative Effects of Heterogeneous Affinity in Malaria Transmission along with Ivermectin Mass Administration

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (23) ◽  
pp. 8696
Author(s):  
João Sequeira ◽  
Jorge Louçã ◽  
António M. Mendes ◽  
Pedro G. Lind
Keyword(s):  
Malaria Transmission ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Entomological Inoculation Rate ◽  
Malaria Incidence ◽  
Parameter Tuning ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Range Of Values ◽  
Insight Into

Using an agent-based model of malaria, we present numerical evidence that in communities of individuals having an affinity varying within a broad range of values, disease transmission may increase up to 300%. Moreover, our findings provide new insight into how to combine different strategies for the prevention of malaria transmission. In particular, we uncover a relationship between the level of heterogeneity and the level of conventional and unconventional anti-malarial drug administration (ivermectin and gametocidal agents), which, when taken together, will define a control parameter, tuning between disease persistence and elimination. Finally, we also provide evidence that the entomological inoculation rate, as well as the product between parasite and sporozoite rates are both good indicators of malaria incidence in the presence of heterogeneity in disease transmission and may configure a possible improvement in that setting, upon classical standard measures such as the basic reproductive number.

Modeling and stability analysis of the spread of novel coronavirus disease COVID-19

2021 ◽  
pp. 2150035
Author(s):  
A. George Maria Selvam ◽  
Jehad Alzabut ◽  
D. Abraham Vianny ◽  
Mary Jacintha ◽  
Fatma Bozkurt Yousef
Keyword(s):  
Fractional Order ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Sufficient Conditions ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Phase Portraits ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Discrete Version ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Towards the end of 2019, the world witnessed the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (COVID-19), a new strain of coronavirus that was unidentified in humans previously. In this paper, a new fractional-order Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Hospitalized–Recovered (SEIHR) model is formulated for COVID-19, where the population is infected due to human transmission. The fractional-order discrete version of the model is obtained by the process of discretization and the basic reproductive number is calculated with the next-generation matrix approach. All equilibrium points related to the disease transmission model are then computed. Further, sufficient conditions to investigate all possible equilibria of the model are established in terms of the basic reproduction number (local stability) and are supported with time series, phase portraits and bifurcation diagrams. Finally, numerical simulations are provided to demonstrate the theoretical findings.

scholarly journals Differential effects of intervention timing on COVID-19 spread in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (49) ◽  
pp. eabd6370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sen Pei ◽  
Sasikiran Kandula ◽  
Jeffrey Shaman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions

Assessing the effects of early nonpharmaceutical interventions on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread is crucial for understanding and planning future control measures to combat the pandemic. We use observations of reported infections and deaths, human mobility data, and a metapopulation transmission model to quantify changes in disease transmission rates in U.S. counties from 15 March to 3 May 2020. We find that marked, asynchronous reductions of the basic reproductive number occurred throughout the United States in association with social distancing and other control measures. Counterfactual simulations indicate that, had these same measures been implemented 1 to 2 weeks earlier, substantial cases and deaths could have been averted and that delayed responses to future increased incidence will facilitate a stronger rebound of infections and death. Our findings underscore the importance of early intervention and aggressive control in combatting the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Emerging infectious pathogens of wildlife

2001 ◽  
Vol 356 (1411) ◽  
pp. 1001-1012 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Dobson ◽  
J. Foufopoulos
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
The United States ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Emerging Pathogens ◽  
Emergent Pathogen ◽  
Insight Into

The first part of this paper surveys emerging pathogens of wildlife recorded on the ProMED Web site for a 2–year period between 1998 and 2000. The majority of pathogens recorded as causing disease outbreaks in wildlife were viral in origin. Anthropogenic activities caused the outbreaks in a significant majority of cases. The second part of the paper develops some matrix models for quantifying the basic reproductive number, R 0 , for a variety of potential types of emergent pathogen that cause outbreaks in wildlife. These analyses emphasize the sensitivity of R 0 to heterogeneities created by either the spatial structure of the host population, or the ability of the pathogens to utilize multiple host species. At each stage we illustrate how the approach provides insight into the initial dynamics of emergent pathogens such as canine parvovirus, Lyme disease, and West Nile virus in the United States.

Dynamics of a Food Chain Model with Two Infected Predators

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (02) ◽  
pp. 2150019
Author(s):  
Xin-You Meng ◽  
Ni-Ni Qin ◽  
Hai-Feng Huo
Keyword(s):  
Food Chain ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Sufficient Conditions ◽  
Geometric Approach ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
Number Formula ◽  
Manifold Theory ◽  
Food Chain Model

In this paper, the dynamics of a three-species food chain model with two predators infected by an infectious disease is investigated. The positivity and boundedness of the system, the existence of the equilibria and the basic reproductive number are given. Sufficient conditions for the local stability of all equilibria are obtained by analyzing the corresponding characteristic equations. By constructing suitable Lyapunov functions and taking the geometric approach, the global stability of all equilibria is proved. According to the center manifold theory, this model undergoes the phenomenon of backward and forward bifurcations in a certain range of the basic reproductive number [Formula: see text]. By taking the disease transmission coefficient of predator as bifurcation parameter, Hopf bifurcation emerges in the neighborhood of the endemic equilibrium. Furthermore, the optimal control of the disease is discussed by the Pontryagin’s maximum principle. Various simulations are given to support the analytical results.

scholarly journals Estimation of the Outbreak Severity and Evaluation of Epidemic Prevention Ability of COVID-19 by Province in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (12) ◽  
pp. 1837-1843
Author(s):  
Yilei Ma ◽  
Xuehan Liu ◽  
Weiwei Tao ◽  
Yuchen Tian ◽  
Yanran Duan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Response ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Initial Period ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Linear Mixed Effects Model ◽  
Linear Mixed Effects ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
And Control ◽  
Case Data

Objectives. To compare the epidemic prevention ability of COVID-19 of each province in China and to evaluate the existing prevention and control capacity of each province. Methods. We established a quasi-Poisson linear mixed-effects model using the case data in cities outside Wuhan in Hubei Province, China. We adapted this model to estimate the number of potential cases in Wuhan and obtained epidemiological parameters. We estimated the initial number of cases in each province by using passenger flowrate data and constructed the extended susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered model to predict the future disease transmission trends. Results. The estimated potential cases in Wuhan were about 3 times the reported cases. The basic reproductive number was 3.30 during the initial outbreak. Provinces with more estimated imported cases than reported cases were those in the surrounding provinces of Hubei, including Henan and Shaanxi. The regions where the number of reported cases was closer to the predicted value were most the developed areas, including Beijing and Shanghai. Conclusions. The number of confirmed cases in Wuhan was underestimated in the initial period of the outbreak. Provincial surveillance and emergency response capabilities vary across the country.

scholarly journals Population density and basic reproductive number of COVID-19 across United States counties

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0249271
Author(s):  
Karla Therese L. Sy ◽  
Laura F. White ◽  
Brooke E. Nichols
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Household Income ◽  
The United States ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Main Mode ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Mode Of Transportation

The basic reproductive number (R0) is a function of contact rates among individuals, transmission probability, and duration of infectiousness. We sought to determine the association between population density and R0 of SARS-CoV-2 across U.S. counties. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis using linear mixed models with random intercept and fixed slopes to assess the association of population density and R0, and controlled for state-level effects using random intercepts. We also assessed whether the association was differential across county-level main mode of transportation percentage as a proxy for transportation accessibility, and adjusted for median household income. The median R0 among the United States counties was 1.66 (IQR: 1.35–2.11). A population density threshold of 22 people/km2 was needed to sustain an outbreak. Counties with greater population density have greater rates of transmission of SARS-CoV-2, likely due to increased contact rates in areas with greater density. An increase in one unit of log population density increased R0 by 0.16 (95% CI: 0.13 to 0.19). This association remained when adjusted for main mode of transportation and household income. The effect of population density on R0 was not modified by transportation mode. Our findings suggest that dense areas increase contact rates necessary for disease transmission. SARS-CoV-2 R0 estimates need to consider this geographic variability for proper planning and resource allocation, particularly as epidemics newly emerge and old outbreaks resurge.

ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF TEMPERATURE AND DENGUE VIRUS LOAD ON DENGUE TRANSMISSION

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (04) ◽  
pp. 1550027 ◽  
Author(s):  
LOURDES ESTEVA ◽  
HYUN MO YANG
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Effect Of Temperature ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Vector Population ◽  
Dengue Transmission ◽  
Mosquito Mortality ◽  
Different Temperatures ◽  
Effects Of Temperature ◽  
Nonzero Equilibrium

In this study, we propose a model to assess the effect of temperature on the incidence of dengue fever. For this, we take into account the dependence of the entomological and epidemiological parameters of the transmitter vector Aedes aegypti with respect to the temperature. The model consists of an ODE system that describes the transmission between humans and mosquitoes considering the aquatic stage of the vector population. The qualitative analysis of the model is made in terms of the parameters [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], which represent the basic offspring of mosquitoes, and the basic reproductive number of the disease, respectively. If [Formula: see text] mosquito population extinguishes while for [Formula: see text] it tends asymptotically to a nonzero equilibrium. Analogously, the disease transmission is eliminated if [Formula: see text], and it approaches an endemic equilibrium for [Formula: see text]. Using entomological data of mosquitoes as well as experimental data of disease transmission we evaluate [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] at different temperatures, obtaining that around [Formula: see text]C both parameters attain their maximum. Sensitivity analysis reveals that infection rates and mosquito mortality are the parameters for which [Formula: see text] is more sensitive.

scholarly journals An antigenic diversification threshold for falciparum malaria transmission at high endemicity

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qixin He ◽  
Mercedes Pascual
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Malaria Transmission ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Dynamic Strain ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Apparent Paradox ◽  
Large Reservoir ◽  
Antigenic Diversity ◽  
Major Antigen ◽  
The One

AbstractIn malaria and several other important infectious diseases, high prevalence occurs concomitantly with incomplete immunity. This apparent paradox poses major challenges to malaria elimination in highly endemic regions, where asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infections are present across all age classes creating a large reservoir that maintains transmission. This reservoir is in turn enabled by extreme antigenic diversity of the parasite and turnover of new variants. We present here the concept of a threshold in local pathogen diversification that defines a sharp transition in transmission intensity below which new antigen-encoding genes generated by either recombination or migration cannot establish. Transmission still occurs below this threshold, but diversity of these genes can neither accumulate nor recover from interventions that further reduce it. An analytical expectation for this threshold is derived and compared to numerical results from a stochastic individual-based model of malaria transmission that incorporates the major antigen-encoding multigene family known as var. This threshold we call Rdiv; it is complementary to the one defined by the classic basic reproductive number of infectious diseases, R0, which does not easily apply under large and dynamic strain diversity. This new threshold concept can be exploited for effective malaria control and applied more broadly to other pathogens with large multilocus antigenic diversity.

INTRINSIC TRANSMISSION GLOBAL DYNAMICS OF TUBERCULOSIS WITH AGE STRUCTURE

2011 ◽  
Vol 04 (03) ◽  
pp. 329-346 ◽  
Author(s):  
JUN-YUAN YANG ◽  
XIAO-YAN WANG ◽  
XUE-ZHI LI ◽  
FENG-QIN ZHANG
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Age Structured

An age-structured epidemiological model for the disease transmission dynamics of TB is studied. We show that the infection-free steady state is locally and globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproductive number is below one, and in this case, the disease always dies out. We prove that the endemic steady state exists when the basic reproductive number is above one. In addition, the endemic steady state is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproductive number is above one and death rate due to TB is zero.

scholarly journals Rich Dynamics of an Epidemic Model with Saturation Recovery

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Wan ◽  
Jing-an Cui
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Medical Resource ◽  
Sir Epidemic Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

A SIR epidemic model is proposed to understand the impact of limited medical resource on infectious disease transmission. The basic reproduction number is identified. Existence and stability of equilibria are obtained under different conditions. Bifurcations, including backward bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation, are analyzed. Our results suggest that the model considering the impact of limited medical resource may exhibit vital dynamics, such as bistability and periodicity when the basic reproduction numberℝ0is less than unity, which implies that the basic reproductive number itself is not enough to describe whether the disease will prevail or not and a subthreshold number is needed. It is also shown that a sufficient number of sickbeds and other medical resources are very important for disease control and eradication. Considering the costs, we provide a method to estimate a suitable treatment capacity for a disease in a region.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document