scholarly journals Using the LSTM Network to Forecast the Demand for Electricity in Poland

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (23) ◽  
pp. 8455
Author(s):  
Anna Manowska
Keyword(s):  
Energy Policy ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Environmental Regulations ◽  
Electricity Production ◽  
Solid Fuels ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Hard Coal ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The Impact

The impact of environmental regulations introduced by the European Union is of key importance for electricity generation systems. The Polish fuel structure of electricity production is based on solid fuels. Moreover, the generating base is outdated and must gradually be withdrawn from the power system. In this context, Poland’s energy policy is undergoing a transformation as climate and environmental regulations are becoming increasingly stringent for the energy sector based on solid fuels (hard coal and lignite). However, the transformation process must be adapted to market demands, because the overriding goal is to ensure energy security by maintaining the continuity of energy supplies and an acceptable electricity price. This directly contributes to the development of the entire economy and the standard of living of the society, in accordance with the European Agreement establishing an association between the Republic of Poland and the European Communities and their Member States, signed on 16 December 1991, and the European Energy Charter, signed on 17 December 1991. Ensuring energy security is the most important goal of the energy policy. Therefore, energy companies must forecast the demand. The main goal of this article is to develop a mathematical model of electricity consumption by 2040 by all sectors of the economy: industry, transport, residential, commercial and public services, agriculture, forestry, and fishing. In order to achieve the intended goal, a model was developed by using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) artificial neural networks, which belong to deep learning techniques and reflect long-term relationships in time series for a small set of statistical data. The results show that the proposed model can significantly improve the accuracy of forecasts (1–3% of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the analyzed sectors of the economy).

scholarly journals Challenges in the Development of Hydropower in Selected European Countries

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 3542
Author(s):  
Paweł Tomczyk ◽  
Mirosław Wiatkowski
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Policy ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Electricity Production ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Change Factors ◽  
Hydropower Plants ◽  
Rational Management ◽  
Domestic Electricity ◽  
The Impact

Hydropower in Europe is playing an increasingly important role as a renewable source of energy. Its share of the final energy consumption varies from country to country, posing different challenges in each. The European Union member states are obliged, according to energy policy, to increase the share of renewable energy. This article presents the challenges related to the development of hydropower in four countries with different shares of domestic electricity production from hydropower plants: Albania (100% share in 2019), Slovenia (25.7%), Poland (1.1%), and Estonia (0.3%). Particular attention is paid to the issues of rational management of water resources in connection to Europe’s energy policy. As a result of the case study analysis, the challenges in the development of hydropower are identified, as well as ways to solve them. In addition, a comprehensive analysis of the impact of social, economic, environmental and climate change factors on the development of hydropower was conducted. At present, whether the assumed goals of the European Union’s energy policy will be achieved is impossible to determine for the whole of Europe. Achieving these goals will be possible only after individual countries prepare comprehensive reports on the topics of renewable energy sources, including hydropower.

scholarly journals An analysis of sales of coal products with reference to environmental regulations of the European Union

2019 ◽  
Vol 108 ◽  
pp. 01034
Author(s):  
Anna Manowska ◽  
Aurelia Rybak
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Environmental Regulations ◽  
Mining Industry ◽  
Production Capacity ◽  
Essential Element ◽  
Coal Industry ◽  
Hard Coal ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Dynamic Adjustment ◽  
The Impact

Hard-coal mines deliver coal with crucially diversified quality parameters to the energy market, thus demonstrating the considerable production capacity of the coal industry, which endeavours to adapt to the high quality demands of the market. An essential element influencing the situation of the Polish coal sector is its regulatory environment. European directives transposed to the domestic legislative system are mainly aimed at decarbonisation, which will result in a significant reduction of the economic role of the qualitatively worst coals. The impact of these regulations on the functioning energy and fuel sectors poses a challenge for both the mining industry and energy companies. Once Poland joined the European Union, the issue of mechanical processing, which influences the quality of market coal, became a major issue due to effective European coal quality requirements. The present article presents an analysis of the potential for selling hard coal in reference to environmental regulations of the European Union. This analysis enabled the development of a theoretical model for forecasting demand on the domestic market. A proper forecast of demand enables flexible and dynamic adjustment of levels of production or inventory to changes taking place in the market.

European Energy Security

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Almas Heshmati ◽  
Shahrouz Abolhosseini
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Policy ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Alternative Energy ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
The European Union

This chapter reviews relevant literature on the current state and effectiveness of developing renewable energy on energy security in general, and on energy security in the European Union (EU) in particular. The chapter elaborates on primary energy import sources, possible alternatives, and how energy security is affected by the sources of supply. It also gives an analysis of the effects of the Ukrainian crisis, the isolation of Iran on diversification sources, and on European energy security. It examines EU’s energy policy, analyses the best motivation for a new energy policy direction within Europe, and suggests alternative solutions for enhanced energy supply security. The aim is to suggest suitable solutions for energy security in Europe through energy supply diversification. Supply diversification includes alternative energy corridors for reducing dependency on Russia as a supplier and enhancing the power generated by renewable energy sources under the European Union 2020 strategy.

Analyzing the impact of fossil fuel import reliance on electricity prices: The case of the Iberian Electricity Market

2017 ◽  
Vol 28 (7) ◽  
pp. 687-705 ◽  
Author(s):  
Blanca Moreno ◽  
María T García-Álvarez
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emission ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Electricity Production ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Spain and Portugal are highly dependent on energy from abroad, importing more than 70% of all the energy they consume. This high energy dependence could involve important effects on the level and stability of their electricity prices as a half the gross electricity generated in both countries came from power stations using imported combustible fuels (such as natural gas, coal and oil). In general, changes in the prices of these fossil fuels can directly affect household electricity prices, since generation costs are likely to be transmitted through to the wholesale electricity market. Moreover, in the framework of the European Union Emission Trading System, electricity production technologies tend to incorporate their costs of carbon dioxide emission allowances in sale offers with the consequent increase of the electricity prices. The objective of this paper is to analyze the influence of fossil fuel costs and prices of carbon dioxide emission allowances in the EU on the Spanish and Portuguese electricity prices. With this aim, a maximum entropy econometric approach is used. The obtained results indicate that not only the price of imported gas are very important in explaining Spanish and Portuguese electricity prices but also the price of carbon dioxide emission allowances in the EU.

scholarly journals Mity dotyczące energii odnawialnej w opinii młodzieży województwa podkarpackiego

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 33-47
Author(s):  
Marian Woźniak ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Policy ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Hard Coal ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Current Energy

Electricity is one of the factors shaping the quality of life of society. The Polish energy sector is to a large extent identified with fossil fuel used in conventional energy, based mainly on hard coal, which is not fully in line with the current energy policy of the European Union. Therefore, today it is necessary to use renewable energy more efficiently, which, in addition to the clearly indicated economic effect, also accentuates environmental effects. The purpose of the work is to show the opinions of young people aged 15–24 in terms of their awareness of the interpretation of myths about renewable energy, which is a key problem in the development of the modern energy sector, and to indicate the directions of development of the energy policy in Poland.

scholarly journals SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENERGY SECURITY LEVEL AFTER IGNALINA NPP SHUTDOWN

2011 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juozas Augutis ◽  
Ričardas Krikštolaitis ◽  
Sigita Pečiulytė ◽  
Inga Konstantinavičiūtė
Keyword(s):  
Power Plant ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Integral Characteristic ◽  
Fuel Oil ◽  
Electricity Production ◽  
Security Level ◽  
Heavy Fuel Oil ◽  
Security Indicators ◽  
The Impact

The paper presents the investigation of the impact of Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) shutdown on Lithuanian energy security. The system of energy security indicators, covering technical, economic and socio-political aspects is presented. The integral characteristic of these indicators shows the level of energy security. The paper analyses the Lithuanian energy security level in 2007. To make a comparison, the energy security level in 2010, after the shutdown of Ignalina NPP, when Lithuanian Power Plant in Elektrėnai becomes the main electricity producer, is forecasted. Two alternatives are analysed: Lithuanian Power Plant uses either gas or heavy fuel oil for electricity production. The security level of each indicator, each indicator block and the total security level are presented as the result. Energy security indicators, which increased or decreased after the shutdown of Ignalina NPP, are analysed, including the indicators which have had the greatest impact on the change in energy security level. The influence of Ignalina NPP shutdown on CO2 emissions is presented. Also, electricity generating costs for different types of electricity production at a different discount rate are presented.

scholarly journals Germany’s Position Concerning the Nord Stream-2 Pipeline in the Context of the European Union’s Energy Security

2021 ◽  
pp. 108-127
Author(s):  
Mykola Stetsiuk
Keyword(s):  
Energy Policy ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
Individual Member ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
Strategic Direction ◽  
Term Energy ◽  
Nord Stream ◽  
The Impact

The article analyzes the underlying foundations of Germany’s position regarding the construction of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline, as well as the impact of this position on the European Union’s joint energy policy and energy security. Against the backdrop of the constantly growing energy consumption both globally and in EU specifically, supplies of energy sources are being increasingly used by exporters as an instrument of political influence. In this context, the Nord Stream-2 pipeline is regarded as such an instrument, primarily by Russia itself. On the other hand, Germany has been supporting the construction of the new Russian pipeline due to the need to ensure uninterrupted supply of cheap natural gas. The latter is of particular significance for the realization of Germany’s long-term energy transformation strategy. However, by sticking to such a position, Germany prioritizes its own political and economic interests over those of EU and individual Member States, which is contrary to one of the main principles of EU’s functioning, i.e., the principle of solidarity. With this in mind, it is reasonable to conclude that Germany is almost single-handedly defining the strategic direction of the entire EU’s energy policy without paying due attention to alternative suppliers and sources.

scholarly journals Economic implications of energy security in the short run

Ekonomika ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 94 (3) ◽  
pp. 119-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vaidotas Šumskis ◽  
Vincentas Giedraitis
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Energy Policy ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Energy Resources ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Panel Var ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Run

Energy security is one of the primary goals of the European Union energy policy as the region relies mostly on imports to meet its energy resources demand. In 2013, the share of the net imported energy resources was as high as 54.5% of total energy consumption in the 28 member states of the European Union. Research on energy security involves a detailed analysis of economic, technological, and socio-political factors. The main objective of this study is to find out the economic consequences in the short run due to changes in the level of the security of energy resources supply. In order to acquire quantitative measures of the research object, the energy security index calculation methodology proposed by Jansen et al. (2004) is applied. To explore what effects, if any, energy security has on the economy of the EU, five economic indicators, with which the probable short-term impact of energy security is the most likely, are distinguished: real GDP, inflation, current account balance, foreign direct investment, and employment. Granger causality tests of the panel VAR model reveal that in the short run employment may be negatively affected by energy security. The effect itself is relatively small and short-lived. No short term causality is observed running from energy security towards the remaining macroeconomic variables of the panel VAR model. Such conclusions would suggest making the European Union energy policy decisions without prioritizing possible swings of the energy security level in the short run.

Energy security and implementation of renewable energy in the European Union

2020 ◽  
pp. 139-145
Author(s):  
Magdalena Tkaczyk
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Gradual Reduction ◽  
Global Challenges ◽  
Climate Crisis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

In the light of the deepening climate crisis and global challenges, the issue of energy security is discussed more broadly. The growing fears of the European Union characterised as a region that is highly dependent on energy import from non-EU countries, lead to the modernisation of the European energy sector. The EU is actively promoting the implementation of renewable energy and investments in a sustainable economyto ensure energy security. In this essay, the author analyses a research on the impact of renewable energy efficiency on the gradual reduction of dependence on energy supplies, that was carried out by Turkish scientists, F. Gökgöz and M.T. Güvercin, in 2018. In order to obtain a comprehensive perspective on this issue, the author confronts this publication with other scientific articles in the field of EU energy security.

scholarly journals Sustainable Development and Energy Policy: Actual CO2 Emissions in the European Union in the Years 1997–2017, Considering Trade with China and the USA

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 3363 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bartosz Fortuński
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Energy Policy ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Eu Energy Policy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

One of the ways of implementing the concept of sustainable development by the European Union is their energy policy. Among the three main objectives in its energy policy is a reduction in greenhouse gases (mainly CO2) emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020. This study aims to assess the impact of international trade on actual CO2 emission in the EU, China and the USA for the period 1997–2017. For this aim, the Actual-Open CO2 emissions were calculated, taking into account the transfer of CO2 in exported products and services from China and the USA to the EU and vice versa. It is concluded that the actual CO2 emissions in China, the USA, and the EU differed from the traditionally calculated emissions. This has serious consequences for policy, as the factual level of implementation of the EU energy policy goals may be different from what is assumed. Without including the goals of energy policy into trade policy, the effectiveness of measures may be limited. This also has implications for the effectiveness of environmental management systems. When improvements rely on increasing trade with large CO2 emitting countries, the final effect may be opposed to the assumed effect.

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