scholarly journals Dissolved Oxygen Forecasting in Aquaculture: A Hybrid Model Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (20) ◽  
pp. 7079
Author(s):  
Elias Eze ◽  
Tahmina Ajmal
Keyword(s):  
Dissolved Oxygen ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Intrinsic Mode Functions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Do Concentration

Dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration is a vital parameter that indicates water quality. We present here DO short term forecasting using time series analysis on data collected from an aquaculture pond. This can provide the basis of data support for an early warning system, for an improved management of the aquaculture farm. The conventional forecasting approaches are commonly characterized by low accuracy and poor generalization problems. In this article, we present a novel hybrid DO concentration forecasting method with ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD)-based LSTM (long short-term memory) neural network (NN). With this method, first, the sensor data integrity is improved through linear interpolation and moving average filtering methods of data preprocessing. Next, the EEMD algorithm is applied to decompose the original sensor data into multiple intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). Finally, the feature selection is used to carefully select IMFs that strongly correlate with the original sensor data, and integrate into both inputs for the NN. The hybrid EEMD-based LSTM forecasting model is then constructed. The performance of this proposed model in training and validation sets was compared with the observed real sensor data. To obtain the exact evaluation accuracy of the forecasted results of the hybrid EEMD-based LSTM forecasting model, four statistical performance indices were adopted: mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Results are presented for the short term (12-h) and the long term (1-month) that are encouraging, indicating suitability of this technique for forecasting DO values.

scholarly journals Dissolved Oxygen Forecasting in Aquaculture: A Hybrid Model Approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elias Eze ◽  
Tahmina Ajmal
Keyword(s):  
Dissolved Oxygen ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Linear Interpolation ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Intrinsic Mode Functions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Do Concentration

Dissolved Oxygen (DO) concentration is a vital parameter that indicates water quality. DO short term forecasting using time series analysis on data collected from an aquaculture pond is presented here. This can provide data support for an early warning system for an improved management of the aquaculture farm. The conventional forecasting approaches are commonly characterized by low accuracy and poor generalization problems. In this article, we present a novel hybrid DO concentration forecasting method with ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) based LSTM (Long short-term memory) neural network (NN). With this method, first, the sensor data integrity is improved through linear interpolation and moving average filtering methods of data preprocessing. Next, the EEMD algorithm is applied to decompose the original sensor data into multiple intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). Finally, the feature selection is used to carefully select IMFs that are strongly correlated with the original sensor data and integrate both into inputs for the NN. The hybrid EEMD-based LSTM forecasting model is then constructed. Performance of this proposed model in training and validation sets was compared with the observed real sensor data. To obtain the exact evaluation accuracy of the forecasted results of the hybrid EEMD-based LSTM forecasting model, three statistical performance indices were adopted: MAE, MSE, and RMSE. Results presented for short term (12-hour period) and long term (1-month period) give a strong indication of suitability of this method for forecasting DO values.

Prediksi Belanja Pemerintah Indonesia Menggunakan Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-106
Author(s):  
Sabar Sautomo ◽  
Hilman Ferdinandus Pardede
Keyword(s):  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Average Error ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
The Government

Abstract Estimates of government expenditure for the next period are very important in the government, for instance for the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia, because this can be taken into consideration in making policies regarding how much money the government should bear and whether there is sufficient availability of funds to finance it. As is the case in the health, education and social fields, modeling technology in machine learning is expected to be applied in the financial sector in government, namely in making modeling for spending predictions. In this study, it is proposed the application of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Model for expenditure predictions. Experiments show that LSTM model using three hidden layers and the appropriate hyperparameters can produce Mean Square Error (MSE) performance of 0.2325, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.4820, Mean Average Error (MAE) of 0.3292 and Mean Everage Presentage Error (MAPE) of 0.4214. This is better than conventional modeling using the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) as a comparison model.

scholarly journals Forecasting PM2.5 Concentration Using a Single-Dense Layer BiLSTM Method

Electronics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (15) ◽  
pp. 1808
Author(s):  
Aji Teguh Prihatno ◽  
Himawan Nurcahyanto ◽  
Md. Faisal Ahmed ◽  
Md. Habibur Rahman ◽  
Md. Morshed Alam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Dense Layer ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Industrial Grade ◽  
Pm2.5 Concentration

In recent times, particulate matter (PM2.5) is one of the most critical air quality contaminants, and the rise of its concentration will intensify the hazard of cleanrooms. The forecasting of the concentration of PM2.5 has great importance to improve the safety of the highly pollutant-sensitive electronic circuits in the factories, especially inside semiconductor industries. In this paper, a Single-Dense Layer Bidirectional Long Short-term Memory (BiLSTM) model is developed to forecast the PM2.5 concentrations in the indoor environment by using the time series data. The real-time data samples of PM2.5 concentrations were obtained by using an industrial-grade sensor based on edge computing. The proposed model provided the best results comparing with the other existing models in terms of mean absolute error, mean square error, root mean square error, and mean absolute percentage error. These results show that the low error of forecasting PM2.5 concentration in a cleanroom in a semiconductor factory using the proposed Single-Dense Layer BiLSTM method is considerably high.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in Iran: Forecasting Pandemic Using Deep Learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Rahele Kafieh ◽  
Roya Arian ◽  
Narges Saeedizadeh ◽  
Zahra Amini ◽  
Nasim Dadashi Serej ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Average Percentage ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Average Percentage Error ◽  
Almost All

COVID-19 has led to a pandemic, affecting almost all countries in a few months. In this work, we applied selected deep learning models including multilayer perceptron, random forest, and different versions of long short-term memory (LSTM), using three data sources to train the models, including COVID-19 occurrences, basic information like coded country names, and detailed information like population, and area of different countries. The main goal is to forecast the outbreak in nine countries (Iran, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, Switzerland, Spain, China, and the USA). The performances of the models are measured using four metrics, including mean average percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), normalized RMSE (NRMSE), and R 2 . The best performance was found for a modified version of LSTM, called M-LSTM (winner model), to forecast the future trajectory of the pandemic in the mentioned countries. For this purpose, we collected the data from January 22 till July 30, 2020, for training, and from 1 August 2020 to 31 August 2020, for the testing phase. Through experimental results, the winner model achieved reasonably accurate predictions (MAPE, RMSE, NRMSE, and R 2 are 0.509, 458.12, 0.001624, and 0.99997, respectively). Furthermore, we stopped the training of the model on some dates related to main country actions to investigate the effect of country actions on predictions by the model.

scholarly journals A Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Model Algorithm for Predicting COVID-19 in Gulf Countries

Life ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1118
Author(s):  
Theyazn H. H. Aldhyani ◽  
Hasan Alkahtani
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Accurate Prediction ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Gulf Countries ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Accurate prediction models have become the first goal for aiding pandemic-related decisions. Modeling and predicting the number of new active cases and deaths are important steps for anticipating and controlling COVID-19 outbreaks. The aim of this research was to develop an accurate prediction system for the COVID-19 pandemic that can predict the numbers of active cases and deaths in the Gulf countries of Saudi Arabia, Oman, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar. The novelty of the proposed approach is that it uses an advanced prediction model—the bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) network deep learning model. The datasets were collected from an available repository containing updated registered cases of COVID-19 and showing the global numbers of active COVID-19 cases and deaths. Statistical analyses (e.g., mean square error, root mean square error, mean absolute error, and Spearman’s correlation coefficient) were employed to evaluate the results of the adopted Bi-LSTM model. The Bi-LSTM results based on the correlation metric gave predicted confirmed COVID-19 cases of 99.67%, 99.34%, 99.94%, 99.64%, 98.95%, and 99.91% for Saudi Arabia, Oman, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar, respectively, while testing the Bi-LSTM model for predicting COVID-19 mortality gave accuracies of 99.87%, 97.09%, 99.53%, 98.71%, 95.62%, and 99%, respectively. The Bi-LSTM model showed significant results using the correlation metric. Overall, the Bi-LSTM model demonstrated significant success in predicting COVID-19. The Bi-LSTM-based deep learning network achieves optimal prediction results and is effective and robust for predicting the numbers of active cases and deaths from COVID-19 in the studied Gulf countries.

scholarly journals A Survey of Forex and Stock Price Prediction Using Deep Learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zexin Hu ◽  
Yiqi Zhao ◽  
Matloob Khushi
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Reinforcement Learning ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Stock Price Prediction

Predictions of stock and foreign exchange (Forex) have always been a hot and profitable area of study. Deep learning applications have been proven to yield better accuracy and return in the field of financial prediction and forecasting. In this survey, we selected papers from the Digital Bibliography & Library Project (DBLP) database for comparison and analysis. We classified papers according to different deep learning methods, which included Convolutional neural network (CNN); Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM); Deep neural network (DNN); Recurrent Neural Network (RNN); Reinforcement Learning; and other deep learning methods such as Hybrid Attention Networks (HAN), self-paced learning mechanism (NLP), and Wavenet. Furthermore, this paper reviews the dataset, variable, model, and results of each article. The survey used presents the results through the most used performance metrics: Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE), accuracy, Sharpe ratio, and return rate. We identified that recent models combining LSTM with other methods, for example, DNN, are widely researched. Reinforcement learning and other deep learning methods yielded great returns and performances. We conclude that, in recent years, the trend of using deep-learning-based methods for financial modeling is rising exponentially.

scholarly journals Prediksi Harga Beras Menggunakan Metode Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) dan Long Short Term Memory (LSTM)

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-41
Author(s):  
Steven Sen ◽  
Dedy Sugiarto ◽  
Abdul Rochman
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Multilayer Perceptron ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Hidden Layer

Beras adalah salah satu komoditas utama di masyarakat Indonesia. Masalah utama dengan beras secara nasional adalah inflasi harga beras. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini memprediksi harga beras menggunakan arsitektur jaringan saraf tiruan Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) dan deep learning : Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) untuk mengantisipasi masalah ini. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data riil harga beras selama 2016 - 2019 yang diperoleh dari PT. Food Station. Total dataset adalah 1307 dengan distribusi 1123 sebagai data train dan 184 sebagai data uji. Hasil akhir yang diperoleh dalam penelitian ini adalah LSTM lebih unggul dari MLP, dengan nilai Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) data train : 0,49, dan nilai loss RMSE dari data tes adalah 0,27. Model LSTM paling optimal dari 3 tes dilakukan, yaitu jumlah hidden layer = 16 dan epochs = 150 kali.

scholarly journals Prediksi Data Time Series Saham Bank BRI Dengan Mesin Belajar LSTM (Long ShortTerm Memory)

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Adhitio Satyo Bayangkari Karno
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Abstract   This study aims to measure the accuracy in predicting time series data using the LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) machine learning method, and determine the number of epochs needed to produce a small RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) value. The result of this research is a high level of variation in RMSE value to the number of epochs needed in the data processing. This variation is quite difficult to obtain the right epoch value. By doing an iteration of the LSTM process on the number of different epochs (visualized in the graph), then the number of epochs with a minimum RMSE value will be easier to obtain. From the research of BBRI's stock data prediction, a good RMSE value was obtained (RMSE = 227.470333244533).   Keywords: long short-term memory, machine learning, epoch, root mean square error, mean square error.   Abstrak   Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengukur ketelitian dalam memprediksi data time series menggunakan metode mesin belajar LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), serta menentukan banyaknya epoch yang diperlukan untuk menghasilkan nilai RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) yang kecil. Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah tingkat variasi yang tinggi nilai rmse terhdap jumlah epoch yang diperlukan dalam proses pengolahan data. Variasi ini cukup menyulitkan untuk memperoleh nilai epoch yang tepat. Dengan melakukan iterasi dari proses LSTM terhadap jumlah epoch yang berbeda (di visualisasikan dalam grafik), maka jumlah epoch dengan nilai RMSE minimal akan lebih mudah diperoleh. Dari penelitan prediksi data saham  BBRI diperoleh nilai RMSE yang cukup baik yaitu 227,470333244533. Kata kunci: long short-term memory, machine learning, epoch, root mean square error, mean square error.

scholarly journals PERBANDINGAN ALGORITMA LINEAR REGRESSION, LSTM, DAN GRU DALAM MEMPREDIKSI HARGA SAHAM DENGAN MODEL TIME SERIES

SEMINASTIKA ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-46
Author(s):  
Khalis Sofi ◽  
Aswan Supriyadi Sunge ◽  
Sasmitoh Rahmad Riady ◽  
Antika Zahrotul Kamalia
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Gated Recurrent Unit

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi harga saham dengan membandingkan algoritma Linear Regression, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), dan Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) dengan dataset publik kemudian menentukan performa terbaik dari ketiga algoritma tersebut. Dataset yang diuji bersumber dari Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), yaitu dataset harga saham KEJU berbentuk time series dari tanggal 15 November 2019 sampai dengan 08 Juni 2021. Parameter yang digunakan untuk pengukuran perbandingan adalah RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), MSE (Mean Square Error), dan MAE (Mean Absolute Error). Setelah dilakukan proses training dan testing, dihasilkan sebuah analisis bahwa dari hasil perbandingan algoritma yang digunakan, algoritma Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) memiliki performance paling baik dibandingkan Linear Regression dan Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) dalam hal memprediksi harga saham, dibuktikan dengan nilai RMSE, MSE, dan MAE dari uji coba GRU paling rendah, yaitu nilai RMSE 0.034, MSE 0.001, dan nilai MAE 0.024.

PERAMALAN BEBAN JANGKA PENDEK SISTEM KELISTRIKAN KOTA BATU MENGGUNAKAN DEEP LEARNING LONG SHORT-TERM MEMORY

Transmisi ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 97-102
Author(s):  
Heru Purnomo ◽  
Hadi Suyono ◽  
Rini Nur Hasanah
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Root Mean Square ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Dalam rangka proyeksi kebutuhan listrik dimasa mendatang, maka penyedia listrik dapat melakukan peramalan terkait besarnya kebutuhan dan permintaan energi listrik. Apabila besarnya permintaan listrik tidak dilakukan peramalan, maka akan terjadi kelebihan kapasitas yang menyebabkan tidak terserapnya sumber energi yang tersedia. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian diperoleh kesimpulan bahwa model terbaik dari metode Deep Learning LSTM  yang digunakan untuk melakukan prakiraan beban konsumsi listrik jangka pendek memiliki nilai RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) yang kecil Artinya tingkat akurasi dari metode Deep Learning LSTM tersebut lebih baik daripada ARIMA, hasil tersebut menunjukkan bahwa metode Deep Learning LSTM layak digunakan untuk memprakirakan beban konsumsi listrik jangka pendek di Kota Batu.

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