scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Moored and Passing Ships

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (19) ◽  
pp. 6825
Author(s):  
Peter Vidmar ◽  
Marko Perkovič ◽  
Lucjan Gucma ◽  
Kinga Łazuga
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Good Practice ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Cruise Ships ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Port Area ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
The Impact

Accidents in port areas are generally relatively minor given the lower prevailing speeds, but dangerous cargo terminals located in the vicinity of populated areas present some risk of accidents with catastrophic consequences. The maritime risk assessment frameworks have been developed in many ports, but few include studies incorporating collisions between sailing and moored ships. This paper presents the risk assessment framework for such accidents. Moreover, it presents the important role of harbour regulations in the navigation risk management process within the port area. Today’s port regulations are created mostly based on the good practice of pilots and other experts, whereas quantitative methods are used less frequently. The intention of the presented case study was to demonstrate how quantitative risk assessment may be used in port policy development, which is why the method created is general and may be used in any terminal with dangerous cargo. The multi-stage method consists of several steps that make up a complex methodology, consisting of expert study, real-time simulation—a simulation of a collision in port is presented—and analytical-empirical calculations for consequence assessment. The case studies of the developed method are presented based on two real accidents, one in the Police port along the Świnoujście-Szczecin waterway, and the second in the Port of Koper in Slovenia. The results of this study present the parameters of the ship’s safe approach to the terminal area, such as velocity and approaching angle. These parameters are used to calculate the impact forces in the case of a collision between a moored and passing ship and its consequences on ship integrity as well as on mooring arrangement. Based on probability and consequences, the risk is evaluated and discussed in the sense of port safety. The presented method could be used as the framework for risk assessment of collisions in a port area, particularly when dealing with dangerous cargo or sensitive vessels such as cruise ships.

Design of a risk assessment methodology for the introduction of invasive species from ship ballast waters

2016 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 474-490 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abderrahmane Bouda ◽  
Nour El Islam Bachari ◽  
Lylia Bahmed ◽  
Ryad Boubenia
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Invasive Species ◽  
Ballast Water ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Convention ◽  
Environmental Similarity ◽  
Process Factors ◽  
Shipping Traffic ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – Ballast water of merchant ship is a source of introduction of invasive species around the globe. The purpose of this paper is to present a quantitative risk assessment applied to a model port, the Port of Arzew in Algeria, and based on an analysis of this port’s shipping traffic. Design/methodology/approach – The risk assessment for introduction of invasive species is interpreted in the form of a probabilistic process, with a combination of two probabilities. The first probability is related to the ability of a species to arrive to the destination (recipient port), depending on the quantity of water ballast discharged and the duration of voyage. The second one is based on the species ability to survive in their new environment, which depends on the environmental similarity between donor port and Arzew port. Findings – This assessment’s outcome consists on a classification of scenarios regarding their acceptability. Consequently, it helped to classify donor ports according to a risk scale, from low risk to high-risk donor ports. Research limitations/implications – The phenomenon of invasion of aquatic species is a complex process. Factors such as adaptation and tolerance of species, the attendance or absence of predators, were not taken into account in this study. Practical implications – This study could be used by the maritime administration as a decision-making tool regarding the issue of exemptions under the IMO International Convention on the Management of Ballast Water and Sediments 2004. Originality/value – This is one of the first known studies in Algeria and dealing with ballast water management. The results of this assessment provide useful information to policy makers, in order to develop a national strategy to reduce the impact of shipping pollution on the marine environment.

FDA-iRISK—A Comparative Risk Assessment System for Evaluating and Ranking Food-Hazard Pairs: Case Studies on Microbial Hazards

2013 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 376-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
YUHUAN CHEN ◽  
SHERRI B. DENNIS ◽  
EMMA HARTNETT ◽  
GREG PAOLI ◽  
RÉGIS POUILLOT ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Process Models ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
The Public ◽  
Life Years ◽  
The Impact

Stakeholders in the system of food safety, in particular federal agencies, need evidence-based, transparent, and rigorous approaches to estimate and compare the risk of foodborne illness from microbial and chemical hazards and the public health impact of interventions. FDA-iRISK (referred to here as iRISK), a Web-based quantitative risk assessment system, was developed to meet this need. The modeling tool enables users to assess, compare, and rank the risks posed by multiple food-hazard pairs at all stages of the food supply system, from primary production, through manufacturing and processing, to retail distribution and, ultimately, to the consumer. Using standard data entry templates, built-in mathematical functions, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, iRISK integrates data and assumptions from seven components: the food, the hazard, the population of consumers, process models describing the introduction and fate of the hazard up to the point of consumption, consumption patterns, dose-response curves, and health effects. Beyond risk ranking, iRISK enables users to estimate and compare the impact of interventions and control measures on public health risk. iRISK provides estimates of the impact of proposed interventions in various ways, including changes in the mean risk of illness and burden of disease metrics, such as losses in disability-adjusted life years. Case studies for Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella were developed to demonstrate the application of iRISK for the estimation of risks and the impact of interventions for microbial hazards. iRISK was made available to the public at http://irisk.foodrisk.org in October 2012.

scholarly journals THEORETICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL FUNDAMENTALS OF SELECTION OF AGROINNOVATIVE PROJECTS ON THE BASIS OF THEIR RISK ASSESSMENT

2020 ◽  
Vol 288 (6) ◽  
pp. 261-265
Author(s):  
L. Tesheva ◽  
◽  
V. Hryshchenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Inclusive Development ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Use Of Resources ◽  
Qualitative Risk Assessment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Selection Of

The focus on the simultaneous solution of social, economic and environmental problems allows to form programs of sustainable and inclusive development, which should be based on innovative projects that provide more efficient use of resources with higher returns, increase productivity, increase the level of intellectualization of production. A special feature of innovative projects is their high level of risk. This has a decisive influence on management decisions regarding their implementation. That is why risk assessment of innovative projects occupies a special place in the field of economic research. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the theoretical and methodological principles of selection of innovative projects by the subjects of the agricultural sector of the economy on the basis of the proposed methods of assessing their risk. It has been established that one of the key aspects of comparing projects and portfolios is risk consideration. The list of risk groups of innovative projects is established. It is proposed to use evaluation by quantitative methods (statistical, analytical, cost-effectiveness method, normative method) and qualitative (impact analysis, probability of loss analysis, expert method). As a result of evaluation, data sets are formed for each individual project, which include the values of quantitative indicators of the effects of agroinnovation, ranking values for qualitative parameters of achieving benefits, quantitative values of risks and integral value for qualitative risk assessment determined using fuzzy sets. The process of assessing the impact of risks on the qualitative parameters of the effects of the implementation of agro-innovative projects and the procedure for assessing the generalized impact of risks on all qualitative parameters on the project using the fuzzy set method are detailed. The implementation of the developed algorithm allows to ensure a synergistic effect from the interaction of agro-innovative projects in the process of ensuring the innovative development of the agricultural sector of Ukraine’s economy.

scholarly journals Aggregated Risk Assessment and Survey for Risk Reduction in Oil Terminals

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 12169
Author(s):  
Robertas Alzbutas ◽  
Mindaugas Vaisnoras ◽  
Inga Saruniene ◽  
Ricardas Krikstolaitis ◽  
Mindaugas Valincius ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Risk Aggregation ◽  
Risk Reduction Measures ◽  
The Impact

One of the goals of any oil terminal is to make a business while avoiding hazardous events and harmful effects for both humans and the environment. This can be achieved by creating a safe working place as well as by performing safe and acceptable activities regarding the impact on surrounding objects, including residential and industrial areas. The aim of the hazard analysis of the oil terminal is to assess the risks related to hazardous events or phenomena and to evaluate whether the assessed risks are acceptable. The hazard analysis and assessment of risk are also used for risk reduction while examining and limiting hazardous scenarios that, for instance, involve the loss-of-containment of flammable or combustible material. In this paper, the authors aim to contribute to risk research by providing a comprehensive methodology of risk assessment for oil terminals with case study results and discussion on features of the methodology, risk aggregation, its applicability for risk reduction, and industrial interests. The performed study considered the “Klaipedos Nafta AB” (an operator of the Klaipeda Oil Terminal, Lithuania) case study regarding hazardous materials that might be released from various tanks, devices, and associated pipelines. The performed quantitative risk assessment has enabled the determination of the probability regarding whether releases would ignite and, for instance, cause explosion. In the case study, the estimate of probability, i.e., the frequency, and the possible consequences of the hazardous events were evaluated, and both mitigation and risk reduction measures were also considered.

Validating ecological risk assessments for fisheries: assessing the impacts of turtle excluder devices on elasmobranch bycatch populations in an Australian trawl fishery

2006 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 395 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shane P. Griffiths ◽  
David T. Brewer ◽  
Don S. Heales ◽  
David A. Milton ◽  
Ilona C. Stobutzki
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Ecological Risk ◽  
Absolute Risk ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Trawl Fishery ◽  
Recovery Potential ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Fishing Impacts ◽  
The Impact

Demonstrating ecological sustainability is a challenge for fisheries worldwide, and few methods can quantify fishing impacts on diverse, low value or rare species. The current study employed a widely used ecological risk assessment method and incorporated new data to assess the change in sustainability of species following the introduction of Turtle Excluder Devices (TEDs) in Australia’s Northern Prawn Fishery (NPF). Population recovery ranks changed for 19 of the 56 elasmobranch species after the introduction of TEDs, with nine species showing an increase in sustainability. Unexpectedly, ten species showed a decrease in sustainability. This was due to TEDs successfully excluding large animals from the catch, resulting in a lower mean length at capture, which reduced the recovery ranks for two criteria relying on length data. This falsely indicates that TEDs increase the impact on pre-breeding animals, thus reducing the recovery potential of these species. The results demonstrate that existing attribute-based risk assessment methods may be inadequate for reflecting even the most obvious changes in fishing impacts on bycatch species. Industry and management can benefit greatly from an approach that more accurately estimates absolute risk. The development and requirements of a new quantitative risk assessment method to be developed for the NPF, and applicable to fisheries worldwide, are discussed.

Study on Quantitative Risk Assessment of LGP Transportation in Road Tunnel

2011 ◽  
Vol 255-260 ◽  
pp. 4105-4109
Author(s):  
Yu Chun Zhang ◽  
Chuan He ◽  
Yong Fang ◽  
Xiao Qin Sun
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ◽  
Road Tunnel ◽  
Boiling Liquid ◽  
Flash Fire ◽  
Vapor Cloud ◽  
Property Loss ◽  
Serious Injury ◽  
The Impact

Based on the tunnel environment and the characteristic of flammability and explosion of liquefied petroleum gas (LGP), the leak of LPG tanker can induce heavy casualties and property loss in the tunnel. In order to study quantitative risk of LGP transportation in road tunnel, the data of 599 accidents and 659 accidental vehicles are collected. From these data, the proportion of LGP tanker accident in the total accident vehicles and million vehicles kilometer (MVK) tanker accident rates are obtained. By analyzing the leakage scene of LGP tanker, the possible accident types of the LGP transportation were analyzed, such as boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE), vapor cloud explosion (VCE), flash fire and jet fire, etc. The impact of leak time to various ranges of injury is studied in the condition of LGP continued leakage. The slight injury, serious injury and death radius of LGP leakage accidents are calculated in tanker loaded with different LGP quantity. In view of the accidental analysis, the countermeasures will be proposed to reduce the risk of LGP transportation in road tunnel.

A Model for the Domino Effect Analysis in Quantitative Risk Assessment

2013 ◽  
Vol 328 ◽  
pp. 314-317
Author(s):  
Ming Liang Chen ◽  
Zhi Qiang Geng ◽  
Qun Xiong Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Process Industry ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Domino Effect ◽  
Effect Analysis ◽  
Chemical Process Industry ◽  
Industrial Sites ◽  
Event Trees

The domino effect is responsibility for many most destructive accidents in the chemical process industry. The catastrophic consequences are not only affecting the industrial sites, but also people and environment. However, quantitative methods which take in to account the domino effect are still missing. A model for quantitative assessment of the domino effect is presented. The probabilities of occurrence are obtained by the event trees. The frequencies of different accidents can be obtained by applying the proposed method. The results of the case study show that the domino effect should be taken into account in quantitative risk assessment (QRA).

Application of Improved Kent’s Pipeline Risk Scoring Method Based on Fuzzy Mathematics in the Risk Assessment of Embedded Petroleum Pipeline

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheng Ye ◽  
Youran Zhi ◽  
Xuefeng Fang ◽  
Ping Jiang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Normal Operation ◽  
Fuzzy Mathematics ◽  
Scoring Method ◽  
Petroleum Pipelines ◽  
The Impact

Numerous risk factors exit in the petroleum transmission process of embedded pipelines. Using scientific risk assessment technology to distinguish various hidden perils of pipeline accidents and the corresponding impacts is of significant value in the risk controlling of embedded petroleum pipelines and thus insure their normal operation. The common used Kent’s scoring method can systematically evaluate the relative risk of pipelines, but it has some shortcomings in reflecting the impact differentiations of various influencing factors on the pipeline risk due to the identical assignment of weights for four categories of factors. In this work, we first systematically make risk identification for the embedded petroleum pipelines and further propose a kind of improved Kent’s scoring method, i.e. the Multilevel Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (MFCE) method based on the fuzzy mathematics theory, in which the fuzzification between various influencing factors are considered. Using the MFCE method, it is able to make semi-quantitative risk assessment, as well as risk classification and grading for the embedded petroleum pipeline network in a specific urban area. Finally, with the assistance of the Geographic Information System (GIS) platform, the risk evaluation results of the embedded pipelines with the MFCE method can provide scientific aid decision making basis for the early warning of risk and the emergency plan compilation for the pipeline accidents.

scholarly journals Quantitative risk assessment of haemolytic uremic syndrome associated with beef consumption in Argentina

PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. e0242317
Author(s):  
Victoria Brusa ◽  
Magdalena Costa ◽  
Nora L. Padola ◽  
Analía Etcheverría ◽  
Fernando Sampedro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Ground Beef ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Production Chain ◽  
Haemolytic Uremic Syndrome ◽  
Critical Control Points ◽  
Uremic Syndrome ◽  
The Impact

We developed a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) of haemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) associated with Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC)-contaminated beef (intact beef cuts, ground beef and commercial hamburgers) in children under 15 years of age from Argentina. The QMRA was used to characterize STEC prevalence and concentration levels in each product through the Argentinean beef supply chain, including cattle primary production, cattle transport, processing and storage in the abattoir, retail and home preparation, and consumption. Median HUS probability from beef cut, ground beef and commercial hamburger consumption was <10−15, 5.4x10-8 and 3.5x10-8, respectively. The expected average annual number of HUS cases was 0, 28 and 4, respectively. Risk of infection and HUS probability were sensitive to the type of abattoir, the application or not of Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP) for STEC (HACCP-STEC), stx prevalence in carcasses and trimmings, storage conditions from the abattoir to retailers and home, the joint consumption of salads and beef products, and cooking preference. The QMRA results showed that the probability of HUS was higher if beef cuts (1.7x) and ground beef (1.2x) were from carcasses provided by abattoirs not applying HACCP-STEC. Thus, the use of a single sanitary standard that included the application of HACCP-STEC in all Argentinean abattoirs would greatly reduce HUS incidence. The average number of annual HUS cases estimated by the QMRA (n = 32) would explain about 10.0% of cases in children under 15 years per year in Argentina. Since other routes of contamination can be involved, including those not related to food, further research on the beef production chain, other food chains, person-to-person transmission and outbreak studies should be conducted to reduce the impact of HUS on the child population of Argentina.

Semi‐quantitative risk assessment on the impact of port development to wellhead platform

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (S1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Heri Hermansyah ◽  
Anggraini R. Kumaraningrum ◽  
Andy N. Sommeng ◽  
Anondho Wijanarko ◽  
Muhamad Sahlan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Port Development ◽  
The Impact
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