scholarly journals Efficient Seismic Fragility Analysis for Large-Scale Piping System Utilizing Bayesian Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 1515 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shinyoung Kwag ◽  
YongHee Ryu ◽  
Bu-Seog Ju

In the event of an earthquake, it is essential to accurately assess the seismic fragility of piping systems to ensure the continued safety of society. When evaluating the seismic fragility of a piping system, which is generally a secondary structural system, this should mainly be an integrated model that includes both the primary structural frames and the secondary ones, unlike the primary structural system of a building. Hence, the piping seismic fragility evaluation has an issue in that it takes considerable computational time because numerical analyses must be performed on a relatively complex model. Given this background, the purpose of this study is to propose an efficient piping seismic fragility analysis method by utilizing the existing seismic fragility analysis method and the Bayesian updating concept. In order to verify the validity of the proposed method, it was applied to a building–piping coupled structural system example, and its results were analyzed and compared with the results of the existing method in terms of accuracy and efficiency. As a result, the proposed method showed a similar accuracy compared with the existing method while significantly reducing the numerical cost of nonlinear seismic response analyses necessary for these results.

Abstract. Seismic fragility analysis is essential for seismic risk assessment of structures. This study focuses on the damage probability assessment of the mid-story isolation buildings with different locations of the isolation system. To this end, the performance-based fragility analysis method of the mid-story isolation system is proposed, adopting the maximum story drifts of structures above and below the isolation layer and displacement of the isolation layer as performance indicators. Then, the entire process of the mid-story isolation system, from the initial elastic state to the elastic-plastic state, then to the limit state, is simulated on the basis of the incremental dynamic analysis method. Seismic fragility curves are obtained for mid-story isolation buildings with different locations of the isolation layer, each with fragility curves for near-field and far-field ground motions, respectively. The results indicate that the seismic fragility probability subjected to the near-field ground motions is much greater than those subjected to the far-field ground motions. In addition, with the increase of the location of the isolation layer, the dominant components for the failure of mid-story isolated structures change from superstructure and isolation system to substructure and isolation system.


Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (21) ◽  
pp. 2660
Author(s):  
Chao Wang ◽  
Li Wan ◽  
Tifan Xiong ◽  
Yuanlong Xie ◽  
Shuting Wang ◽  
...  

Structural analysis is a method for verifying equation-oriented models in the design of industrial systems. Existing structural analysis methods need flattening of the hierarchical models into an equation system for analysis. However, the large-scale equations in complex models make structural analysis difficult. Aimed to address the issue, this study proposes a hierarchical structural analysis method by exploring the relationship between the singularities of the hierarchical equation-oriented model and its components. This method obtains the singularity of a hierarchical equation-oriented model by analyzing a dummy model constructed with the parts from the decomposing results of its components. Based on this, the structural singularity of a complex model can be obtained by layer-by-layer analysis according to their natural hierarchy. The hierarchical structural analysis method can reduce the equation scale in each analysis and achieve efficient structural analysis of very complex models. This method can be adaptively applied to nonlinear-algebraic and differential-algebraic equation models. The main algorithms, application cases and comparison with the existing methods are present in this paper. The complexity analysis results show the enhanced efficiency of the proposed method in the structural analysis of complex equation-oriented models. Compared with the existing methods, the time complexity of the proposed method is improved significantly


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 11709
Author(s):  
Xinyong Xu ◽  
Xuhui Liu ◽  
Li Jiang ◽  
Mohd Yawar Ali Khan

The Concrete Damaged Plasticity (CDP) constitutive is introduced to study the dynamic failure mechanism and the law of damage development to the aqueduct structure during the seismic duration using a large-scale aqueduct structure from the South-to-North Water Division Project (SNWDP) as a research object. Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) and multiple stripe analysis (MSA) seismic fragility methods are introduced. The spectral acceleration is used as the scale of ground motion record intensity measure (IM), and the aqueduct pier top offset ratio quantifies the limit of structural damage measure (DM). The aqueduct structure’s seismic fragility evaluation curves are constructed with indicators of different seismic intensity measures to depict the damage characteristics of aqueduct structures under different seismic intensities through probability. The results show that penetrating damage is most likely to occur on both sides of the pier cap and around the pier shaft in the event of a rare earthquake, followed by the top of the aqueduct body, which requires the greatest care during an earthquake. The results of two fragility analysis methodologies reveal that the fragility curves are very similar. The aqueduct structure’s first limit state level (LS1) is quite steep and near the vertical line, indicating that maintaining the excellent condition without damage in the seismic analysis will be challenging. Except for individual results, the overall fragility results are in good agreement, and the curve change rule is the same. The exceedance probability in the case of any ground motion record IM may be estimated using only two factors when using the MSA approach, and the computation efficiency is higher. The study of seismic fragility analysis methods in this paper can provide a reference for the seismic safety evaluation of aqueducts and similar structures.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Abbiati ◽  
Marco Broccardo ◽  
Imad Abdallah ◽  
Stefano Marelli ◽  
Fabrizio Paolacci

This study introduces a computational framework for efficient and accurate seismic fragility analysis based on a combination of artificial ground motion modeling, polynomial-chaos-based global sensitivity analysis, and hierarchical kriging surrogate modeling. The framework follows the philosophy of the Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering PEER approach, where the fragility analysis is decoupled from hazard analysis. This study addresses three criticalities that are present in the current practice. Namely, reduced size of hazard-consistent size-specific ensembles of seismic records, validation of structural simulators against large-scale experiments, high computational cost for accurate fragility estimates. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is demonstrated for the Rio Torto Bridge, recently tested using hybrid simulation within the RETRO project.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leping Ren ◽  
Shuanhai He ◽  
Haoyun Yuan ◽  
Zhao Zhu

In the traditional bridge seismic fragility analysis, the criterion for judging the structural damage state is clear. That is to say, when the damage index exceeds a specific value, the structure is judged to enter the new damage state. However, the actual condition is that the boundary of structural damage is not clear but fuzzy. Taking a three-span V-shaped continuous girder bridge as an example, the damage process of the structure is described by fuzzy mathematics. Considering the uncertainties of ground motion and structure itself, a seismic fragility analysis method is established, which can consider the randomness of bridge itself, seismic load, and structural failure fuzziness simultaneously. Finally, the improved product of conditional marginal (I-PCM) method for fragility analysis of bridge system is further optimized and improved. The new improved method is used to form the seismic fragility curves of bridge structure system. The results show that it is possible to underestimate the potential seismic fragility of bridge components and system without considering the structural fuzzy failure criteria; the fragility curves formed by different membership functions are obviously different; the new system fragility analysis method can significantly improve the analysis accuracy.


Author(s):  
Rocco di Filippo ◽  
Giuseppe Abbiati ◽  
Osman Sayginer ◽  
Patrick Covi ◽  
Oreste S. Bursi ◽  
...  

Abstract Seismic risk evaluation of coupled systems of industrial plants often needs the implementation of complex finite element models to consider their multicomponent nature. These models typically rely on significant computational resources. Moreover, the relationships between seismic action, system response and relevant damage levels are often characterized by a high level of nonlinearity, thus requiring a solid background of experimental data. Furthermore, fragility analyses depend on the adoption of a significant number of seismic waveforms generally not available when the analysis is site-specific. To propose a methodology able to manage these issues, we present a possible approach for a seismic reliability analysis of a coupled tank-piping system. The novelty of this approach lies in the adoption of artificial accelerograms, FE models and experimental hybrid simulations to evaluate a surrogate meta-model of our system. First, to obtain the necessary input for a stochastic ground motion model able to generate synthetic ground motions, a disaggregation analysis of the seismic hazard is performed. Hereafter, we reduce the space of parameters of the stochastic ground motion model by means of a global sensitivity analysis upon the seismic response of our system. Hence, we generate a large set of synthetic ground motions and select, among them, a few signals for experimental hybrid simulations. In detail, the hybrid simulator is composed by a numerical substructure to predict the sliding response of a steel tank, and a physical substructure made of a realistic piping network. Furthermore, we use these experimental results to calibrate a refined ANSYS FEM. More precisely, we focus on tensile hoop strains in elbow pipes as a leading cause for leakage, monitoring them with strain gauges. Thus, we present the procedure to evaluate a numerical Kriging meta-model of the coupled system based on both experimental and finite element model results. This model will be adopted in a future development to carry out a seismic fragility analysis.


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