scholarly journals Power Load Demand Forecasting Model and Method Based on Multi-Energy Coupling

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 584 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liu ◽  
Wang ◽  
Qin ◽  
Liu
Keyword(s):  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Energy Coupling ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Fireworks Algorithm ◽  
Load Demand ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Minimal Redundancy ◽  
Coupling Mode ◽  
Maximal Relevance ◽  
Relevance Model

At the present stage, China’s energy development has the following characteristics: continuous development of new energy technology, continuous expansion of comprehensive energy system scale, and wide application of multi-energy coupling technology. Under the new situation, the accurate prediction of power load is the key to alleviate the problem that the planning and dispatching of the current power system is more complex and more demanding than the traditional power system. Therefore, firstly, this paper designs the calculation method of the power load demand of the grid under the multi-energy coupling mode, aiming at the important role of the grid in the power dispatching in the comprehensive energy system. This load calculation method for regional power grid operating load forecasting is proposed for the first time, which takes the total regional load demand and multi-energy coupling into consideration. Then, according to the participants and typical models in the multi-energy coupling mode, the key factors affecting the load in the multi-energy coupling mode are analyzed. At this stage, we fully consider the supply side resources and the demand side resources, innovatively extract the energy system structure characteristics under the condition of multi-energy coupling technology, and design a key factor index system for this mode. Finally, a least squares support vector machine optimized by the minimal redundancy maximal relevance model and the adaptive fireworks algorithm (mRMR-AFWA-LSSVM) is proposed, to carry out load forecasting for multi-energy coupling scenarios. Aiming at the complexity energy system analysis and prediction accuracy improvement of multi-energy coupling scenarios, this method applies minimal redundancy maximal relevance model to the selection of key factors in scenario analysis. It is also the first time that adaptive fireworks algorithm is applied to the optimization of adaptive fireworks algorithm, and the results show that the model optimization effect is good. In the case of A region quarterly load forecasting in southwest China, the average absolute percentage error of a least squares support vector machine optimized by the minimal redundancy maximal relevance model and the adaptive fireworks algorithm (mRMR-AFWA-LSSVM) is 2.08%, which means that this model has a high forecasting accuracy.

scholarly journals Short-Term Load Forecasting of Distributed Energy System Based on Kernel Principal Component Analysis and KELM Optimized by Fireworks Algorithm

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 12014
Author(s):  
Yingying Fan ◽  
Haichao Wang ◽  
Xinyue Zhao ◽  
Qiaoran Yang ◽  
Yi Liang
Keyword(s):  
Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Component Analysis ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Kernel Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Distributed Energy ◽  
Fireworks Algorithm ◽  
Distributed Energy System

Accurate and stable load forecasting has great significance to ensure the safe operation of distributed energy system. For the purpose of improving the accuracy and stability of distributed energy system load forecasting, a forecasting model in view of kernel principal component analysis (KPCA), kernel extreme learning machine (KELM) and fireworks algorithm (FWA) is proposed. First, KPCA modal is used to reduce the dimension of the feature, thus redundant input samples are merged. Next, FWA is employed to optimize the parameters C and σ of KELM. Lastly, the load forecasting modal of KPCA-FWA-KELM is established. The relevant data of a distributed energy system in Beijing, China, is selected for training test to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the new hybrid KPCA-FWA-KELM method has superior performance, robustness and versatility in load prediction of distributed energy systems.

scholarly journals Distributed Economic Optimal Scheduling Scheme for Ship-Integrated Energy System Based on Load Prediction Algorithm

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuxin Zhang ◽  
Qihe Shan ◽  
Fei Teng ◽  
Tieshan Li
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
Environmental Protection ◽  
Energy Management ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Optimal Scheduling ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Scheduling Scheme ◽  
Load Demand ◽  
Integrated Energy System

In order to enhance navigation safety and promote environmental protection, this paper takes the problem of energy management in a ship-integrated energy system into consideration. According to the characteristics of navigation, an intelligent ship energy management model, simultaneously considering the social and economic benefits, has been proposed. Meanwhile, this paper analyzes a distributed optimal scheduling problem which considers renewable generation devices and an energy storage system. Combined with an electricity-power system and thermal-power system, we propose an optimal scheduling scheme to accurately meet the actual load demand based on the pre-results analyzed by the ensemble learning short-term load forecasting algorithm. In addition, the related stability analysis is given. Further, a series of simulation results have been presented, which denote that the proposed load forecasting algorithm can accurately analyze the short-term load demand trend, and the proposed optimization algorithm can effectively coordinate economic and environmental protection.

Research on Power Load Forecasting Model Based on Hybrid Algorithm Optimizing BP Neural Network

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 723-728 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chenhao Niu ◽  
Xiaomin Xu ◽  
Yan Lu ◽  
Mian Xing
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Optimization Algorithm ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Electric Power System ◽  
Local Optimum ◽  
Good Prediction ◽  
Ant Colony Optimization Algorithm ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Power Load

Short time load forecasting is essential for daily planning and operation of electric power system. It is the important basis for economic dispatching, scheduling and safe operation. Neural network, which has strong nonlinear fitting capability, is widely used in the load forecasting and obtains good prediction effect in nonlinear chaotic time series forecasting. However, the neural network is easy to fall in local optimum, unable to find the global optimal solution. This paper will integrate the traditional optimization algorithm and propose the hybrid intelligent optimization algorithm based on particle swarm optimization algorithm and ant colony optimization algorithm (ACO-PSO) to improve the generalization of the neural network. In the empirical analysis, we select electricity consumption in a certain area for validation. Compared with the traditional BP neutral network and statistical methods, the experimental results demonstrate that the performance of the improved model with more precise results and stronger generalization ability is much better than the traditional methods.

scholarly journals Forecasting for Ultra-Short-Term Electric Power Load Based on Integrated Artificial Neural Networks

Symmetry ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1063 ◽  
Author(s):  
Horng-Lin Shieh ◽  
Fu-Hsien Chen
Keyword(s):  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Electric Power ◽  
Production Efficiency ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Power Load ◽  
Power Load Forecasting ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Electric Power Load

Energy efficiency and renewable energy are the two main research topics for sustainable energy. In the past ten years, countries around the world have invested a lot of manpower into new energy research. However, in addition to new energy development, energy efficiency technologies need to be emphasized to promote production efficiency and reduce environmental pollution. In order to improve power production efficiency, an integrated solution regarding the issue of electric power load forecasting was proposed in this study. The solution proposed was to, in combination with persistence and search algorithms, establish a new integrated ultra-short-term electric power load forecasting method based on the adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and back-propagation neural network (BPN), which can be applied in forecasting electric power load in Taiwan. The research methodology used in this paper was mainly to acquire and process the all-day electric power load data of Taiwan Power and execute preliminary forecasting values of the electric power load by applying ANFIS, BPN and persistence. The preliminary forecasting values of the electric power load obtained therefrom were called suboptimal solutions and finally the optimal weighted value was determined by applying a search algorithm through integrating the above three methods by weighting. In this paper, the optimal electric power load value was forecasted based on the weighted value obtained therefrom. It was proven through experimental results that the solution proposed in this paper can be used to accurately forecast electric power load, with a minimal error.

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