scholarly journals A SWAT Evaluation of the Effects of Climate Change on Renewable Water Resources in Salt Lake Sub-Basin, Iran

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sadegh Khalilian ◽  
Negar Shahvari
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Salt Lake ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Drought Intensity ◽  
Spi Index ◽  
The Future ◽  
Climatic Scenarios

Future climate change is projected to have significant impacts on water resources availability in many parts of the world. This research evaluated climate change impacts on runoff, aquifer infiltration, renewable water resources, and drought intensity in Salt Lake sub-basin, Iran, by the Soil and Water assessment tool (SWAT) model and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) under A1B, A2, and B1 climatic scenarios for 2011–2030, 2046–2065, and 2080–2099, using 1986–2016 as the reference period. The model was calibrated and validated by the SWAT-CUP software and SUFI-2 algorithm. Nash–Sutcliffe (NS) coefficients (0.58 and 0.49) and the determination coefficients (R2) (0.65 and 0.50) were obtained for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. In order to study the climatic condition in the study basin, drought intensity was calculated. Then, drought intensity was predicted using the SPI index for the period 2011–2030. The results showed that runoff, infiltration, as well as renewable water resources will decrease under all climatic scenarios. Renewable water resources will be approximately reduced 100 Mm3 by the year 2100. The future projections suggest a regional increase of 2 °C in temperature and a 20% decrease in precipitation in the sub-basin. In particular, drought intensity will be increased in the future. In 2015, this index was −1.31, and in 2016, the SPI index was lower than −2. These projection scenarios should be of interest to water resources managers in tropical regions.

scholarly journals Future Climate Change Impact on the Nyabugogo Catchment Water Balance in Rwanda

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 3636
Author(s):  
Adeline Umugwaneza ◽  
Xi Chen ◽  
Tie Liu ◽  
Zhengyang Li ◽  
Solange Uwamahoro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
The Impact

Droughts and floods are common in tropical regions, including Rwanda, and are likely to be aggravated by climate change. Consequently, assessing the effects of climate change on hydrological systems has become critical. The goal of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change on the water balance in the Nyabugogo catchment by downscaling 10 global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP6 using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method. To apply climate change signals under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (low and high emission) scenarios, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used. For the baseline scenario, the period 1950–2014 was employed, whereas the periods 2020–2050 and 2050–2100 were used for future scenario analysis. The streamflow was projected to decrease by 7.2 and 3.49% under SSP126 in the 2020–2050 and 2050–2100 periods, respectively; under SSP585, it showed a 3.26% increase in 2020–2050 and a 4.53% decrease in 2050–2100. The average annual surface runoff was projected to decrease by 11.66 (4.40)% under SSP126 in the 2020–2050 (2050–2100) period, while an increase of 3.25% in 2020–2050 and a decline of 5.42% in 2050–2100 were expected under SSP585. Climate change is expected to have an impact on the components of the hydrological cycle (such as streamflow and surface runoff). This situation may, therefore, lead to an increase in water stress, calling for the integrated management of available water resources in order to match the increasing water demand in the study area. This study’s findings could be useful for the establishment of adaptation plans to climate change, managing water resources, and water engineering.

scholarly journals Assessment of Water Supply Stability for Drought-Vulnerable Boryeong Multipurpose Dam in South Korea Using Future Dry Climate Change Scenarios

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2403 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim ◽  
Lee ◽  
Kim ◽  
Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Multipurpose Dam

This study assessed the water supply stability for Boryeong multipurpose dam by applying future dry climate change scenarios and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). CMCC-CM, INM-CM4, and IPSL-CM5A-MR RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were selected as the future dry conditions using Runs theory and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). For historical (1980–1999), present (2000–2019), and future periods (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) of the 6 scenarios, SWAT model was used to simulate the future dam water supply stability. The stability was evaluated in terms of reliability (RT), resilience (RS), and vulnerability (V) based on the monthly target storage. The results showed that the future RT can be decreased to 0.803 in 2050s IPSL-CM5A-MR RCP 8.5 scenario from present 0.955. The future RS and V showed the minimum value of 0.003 and the biggest value of 3567.6 × 106 m3 in 2070s IPSL-CM5A-MR RCP 4.5 scenario. The future RT, RS, and V showed that the dam has low resilience and is vulnerable to future drought scenarios.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff in Dadu River Basin Based on CORDEX Regional Climate Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhangrong Pan ◽  
Wei Li ◽  
Junhong Guo ◽  
Zhuo Chen ◽  
Hui Qin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Runoff Changes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Dadu River

Owing to the rich water resources, the Dadu River basin is an important hydroelectric resources development area in Sichuan Province over China. The climate change will have a great impact on the runoff change in the Dadu River Basin. The prediction of the future runoff in the Dadu River Basin can effectively improve the utilization rate of water resources, and provide a reference for hydropower dispatching. At first, to reduce the uncertainties from climate model, this paper used Stepwise Clustering Analysis to calibrate and validate the CORDEX regional climate model ensemble data from 1970 to 2005 and projected the climate change trend of Dadu River basin from 2035 to 2065. Then the Dadu River watershed scales of SWAT model was established, using the SWAT-CUP for calibration and verification. Finally, the corrected future climate data are used to drive the SWAT model to realize the future runoff forecast in the Dadu River Basin. The results show that under the scenario of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the variation range of rainfall is small, and the maximum and minimum temperatures show an overall increasing trend. The maximum (minimum) temperature will increase about 0.6℃ (1.0℃) under the scenarios of RCP4.5 and 0.9℃ (1.4℃) under the scenario of RCP8.5. Compared with the baseline period, the future (2035-2065) annual runoff under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios will increase by about 8.6% and 8.2%, respectively. Under the future climate change, the inter-annual runoff in the Dadu River Basin will change greatly, and the trend of runoff fluctuation is not consistent before and after 2050. Before 2050, runoff changes are small, however, after 2050, runoff changes under the two scenarios will increase by about 12%. On the one hand, this trend may be due to the impact of iceberg melting on runoff caused by temperature changes around 2050, on the other hand, it may be due to the combined effect of local plant evapotranspiration and ecological regulation.

scholarly journals Assessments of Impacts of Climate and Forest Change on Water Resources Using SWAT Model in a Subboreal Watershed in Northern Da Hinggan Mountains

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1565 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhengxiang Yu ◽  
Xiuling Man ◽  
Liangliang Duan ◽  
Tijiu Cai
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Forest Biomass ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Forest Change ◽  
Da Hinggan Mountains ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Runoff Depth

Water resources from rivers are essential to humans. The discharge of rivers is demonstrated to be significantly affected by climate change in the literature, particularly in the boreal and subboreal climate zones. The Da Hinggan Mountains in subboreal northeast China form the headwaters of the Heilongjiang River and the Nenjiang River, which are important water resources for irrigation of downstream agriculture and wetlands. In this study, long-term (44 years) hydrologic, climate and forest dynamics data from the Tahe were analyzed using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to quantify the effects of climate and forest change on runoff depth. Meanwhile, downscaled precipitation and temperature predictions that arose from global climate models (GCMs) under four representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5) were forced using the SWAT model to investigate the climate change impacts on the Tahe River flows in the future. The results indicated that compared with the 1972–1982 period, the forest biomass in the 1984–1994 period was reduced by 17.6%, resulting in an increase of 16.6% in mean annual runoff depth. On the contrary, with reforestation from the 1995–2005 period to the 2006–2016 period, the mean forest biomass was increased by 9.8%, resulting in the mean runoff depth reduction of 11.9%. The tree species composition shift reduced mean annual runoff depth of 13.3% between the 1984–1994 period and the 2006–2016 period. Compared with base years (2006–2016), projections of GCM in the middle of the 21st century indicated that both mean annual temperature and precipitation were expected to increase by −0.50 °C and 43 mm under RCP 2.6, 0.38 °C and 23 mm under RCP 4.5, 0.67 °C and 36 mm under RCP 6.0 and 1.00 °C and 10 mm under RCP 8.5. Simulated results of the SWAT model showed that annual runoff depth would increase by 18.1% (RCP 2.6), 11.8% (RCP 4.5), 23.6% (RCP 6.0), and 11.5% (RCP 8.5), compared to the base years. Such increased runoff was mainly attributed to the increase in April, July, August, September and October, which were consistent with the precipitation prediction. We concluded that the future climate change will increase the water resources from the river, thereby offsetting the possible decline in runoff caused by the forest recovery. The findings of this study might be useful for understanding the impacts of climate and forest change on runoff and provide a reasonable strategy for managers and planners to mitigate the impact of future climate change on water resources in the subboreal forested watersheds.

scholarly journals Observed change of the standardized precipitation index, its potential cause and implications to future climate change in the Amazon region

2008 ◽  
Vol 363 (1498) ◽  
pp. 1767-1772 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenhong Li ◽  
Rong Fu ◽  
Robinson I. Negrón Juárez ◽  
Katia Fernandes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Amazon Region ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Internal Climate Variability ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
The Future

Observations show that the standard precipitation index (SPI) over the southern Amazon region decreased in the period of 1970–1999 by 0.32 per decade, indicating an increase in dry conditions. Simulations of constant pre-industrial climate with recent climate models indicate a low probability ( p =0%) that the trends are due to internal climate variability. When the 23 models are forced with either anthropogenic factors or both anthropogenic and external natural factors, approximately 13% of sampled 30-year SPI trends from the models are found to be within the range of the observed SPI trend at 95% confidence level. This suggests a possibility of anthropogenic and external forcing of climate change in the southern Amazon. On average, the models project no changes in the frequency of occurrence of low SPI values in the future; however, those models which produce more realistic SPI climatology, variability and trend over the period 1970–1999 show more of a tendency towards more negative values of SPI in the future. The analysis presented here suggests a potential anthropogenic influence on Amazon drying, which warrants future, more in-depth, study.

What we can learn from the parallels between the COVID-19 and the future climate change crises

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rubén D. Manzanedo ◽  
Peter Manning
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Substantial Portion ◽  
Preventative Measures ◽  
The Future ◽  
Behavioral Norm ◽  
Climate Crisis ◽  
Global Population

The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak pandemic is now a global crisis. It has caused 1.6+ million confirmed cases and 100 000+ deaths at the time of writing and triggered unprecedented preventative measures that have put a substantial portion of the global population under confinement, imposed isolation, and established ‘social distancing’ as a new global behavioral norm. The COVID-19 crisis has affected all aspects of everyday life and work, while also threatening the health of the global economy. This crisis offers also an unprecedented view of what the global climate crisis may look like. In fact, some of the parallels between the COVID-19 crisis and what we expect from the looming global climate emergency are remarkable. Reflecting upon the most challenging aspects of today’s crisis and how they compare with those expected from the climate change emergency may help us better prepare for the future.

scholarly journals Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Ecosystem Services in Laguna del Sauce (Uruguay) Using the SWAT Model and Remote Sensing Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 2014
Author(s):  
Celina Aznarez ◽  
Patricia Jimeno-Sáez ◽  
Adrián López-Ballesteros ◽  
Juan Pablo Pacheco ◽  
Javier Senent-Aparicio
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Erosion Control ◽  
Sensing Data ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Impact

Assessing how climate change will affect hydrological ecosystem services (HES) provision is necessary for long-term planning and requires local comprehensive climate information. In this study, we used SWAT to evaluate the impacts on four HES, natural hazard protection, erosion control regulation and water supply and flow regulation for the Laguna del Sauce catchment in Uruguay. We used downscaled CMIP-5 global climate models for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 projections. We calibrated and validated our SWAT model for the periods 2005–2009 and 2010–2013 based on remote sensed ET data. Monthly NSE and R2 values for calibration and validation were 0.74, 0.64 and 0.79, 0.84, respectively. Our results suggest that climate change will likely negatively affect the water resources of the Laguna del Sauce catchment, especially in the RCP 8.5 scenario. In all RCP scenarios, the catchment is likely to experience a wetting trend, higher temperatures, seasonality shifts and an increase in extreme precipitation events, particularly in frequency and magnitude. This will likely affect water quality provision through runoff and sediment yield inputs, reducing the erosion control HES and likely aggravating eutrophication. Although the amount of water will increase, changes to the hydrological cycle might jeopardize the stability of freshwater supplies and HES on which many people in the south-eastern region of Uruguay depend. Despite streamflow monitoring capacities need to be enhanced to reduce the uncertainty of model results, our findings provide valuable insights for water resources planning in the study area. Hence, water management and monitoring capacities need to be enhanced to reduce the potential negative climate change impacts on HES. The methodological approach presented here, based on satellite ET data can be replicated and adapted to any other place in the world since we employed open-access software and remote sensing data for all the phases of hydrological modelling and HES provision assessment.

scholarly journals Application of SWAT in Hydrological Simulation of Complex Mountainous River Basin (Part II: Climate Change Impact Assessment)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1548
Author(s):  
Suresh Marahatta ◽  
Deepak Aryal ◽  
Laxmi Prasad Devkota ◽  
Utsav Bhattarai ◽  
Dibesh Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mountainous River

This study aims at analysing the impact of climate change (CC) on the river hydrology of a complex mountainous river basin—the Budhigandaki River Basin (BRB)—using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model that was calibrated and validated in Part I of this research. A relatively new approach of selecting global climate models (GCMs) for each of the two selected RCPs, 4.5 (stabilization scenario) and 8.5 (high emission scenario), representing four extreme cases (warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, and cold-dry conditions), was applied. Future climate data was bias corrected using a quantile mapping method. The bias-corrected GCM data were forced into the SWAT model one at a time to simulate the future flows of BRB for three 30-year time windows: Immediate Future (2021–2050), Mid Future (2046–2075), and Far Future (2070–2099). The projected flows were compared with the corresponding monthly, seasonal, annual, and fractional differences of extreme flows of the simulated baseline period (1983–2012). The results showed that future long-term average annual flows are expected to increase in all climatic conditions for both RCPs compared to the baseline. The range of predicted changes in future monthly, seasonal, and annual flows shows high uncertainty. The comparative frequency analysis of the annual one-day-maximum and -minimum flows shows increased high flows and decreased low flows in the future. These results imply the necessity for design modifications in hydraulic structures as well as the preference of storage over run-of-river water resources development projects in the study basin from the perspective of climate resilience.

scholarly journals A Review of SWAT Model Application in Africa

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1313
Author(s):  
George Akoko ◽  
Tu Hoang Le ◽  
Takashi Gomi ◽  
Tasuku Kato
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Model Parameterization ◽  
Basin Scale

The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) is a well-known hydrological modeling tool that has been applied in various hydrologic and environmental simulations. A total of 206 studies over a 15-year period (2005–2019) were identified from various peer-reviewed scientific journals listed on the SWAT website database, which is supported by the Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD). These studies were categorized into five areas, namely applications considering: water resources and streamflow, erosion and sedimentation, land-use management and agricultural-related contexts, climate-change contexts, and model parameterization and dataset inputs. Water resources studies were applied to understand hydrological processes and responses in various river basins. Land-use and agriculture-related context studies mainly analyzed impacts and mitigation measures on the environment and provided insights into better environmental management. Erosion and sedimentation studies using the SWAT model were done to quantify sediment yield and evaluate soil conservation measures. Climate-change context studies mainly demonstrated streamflow sensitivity to weather changes. The model parameterization studies highlighted parameter selection in streamflow analysis, model improvements, and basin scale calibrations. Dataset inputs mainly compared simulations with rain-gauge and global rainfall data sources. The challenges and advantages of the SWAT model’s applications, which range from data availability and prediction uncertainties to the model’s capability in various applications, are highlighted. Discussions on considerations for future simulations such as data sharing, and potential for better future analysis are also highlighted. Increased efforts in local data availability and a multidimensional approach in future simulations are recommended.

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