scholarly journals Visual representation of rational belief revision: another look at the Sleeping Beauty problem

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
David R. Mandel
Erkenntnis ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 78 (2) ◽  
pp. 333-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terry Horgan ◽  
Anna Mahtani

Episteme ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Terry Horgan

Abstract A group of philosophers led by the late John Pollock has applied a method of reasoning about probability, known as direct inference and governed by a constraint known as Reichenbach's principle, to argue in support of ‘thirdism’ concerning the Sleeping Beauty Problem. A subsequent debate has ensued about whether their argument constitutes a legitimate application of direct inference. Here I defend the argument against two extant objections charging illegitimacy. One objection can be overcome via a natural and plausible definition, given here, of the binary relation ‘logically stronger than’ between two properties that can obtain even when the respective properties differ from one another in ‘arity’; given this definition, the Pollock group's argument conforms to Reichenbach's principle. Another objection prompts a certain refinement of Reichenbach's principle that is independently well-motivated. My defense of the Pollock group's argument has epistemological import beyond the Sleeping Beauty problem, because it both widens and sharpens the applicability of direct inference as a method for inferring single-case epistemic probabilities on the basis of general information of a probabilistic or statistical nature.


2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 1003-1017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael G. Titelbaum

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (7) ◽  
pp. 1357-1376
Author(s):  
Theofanis Aravanis

Abstract Rational belief-change policies are encoded in the so-called AGM revision functions, defined in the prominent work of Alchourrón, Gärdenfors and Makinson. The present article studies an interesting class of well-behaved AGM revision functions, called herein uniform-revision operators (or UR operators, for short). Each UR operator is uniquely defined by means of a single total preorder over all possible worlds, a fact that in turn entails a significantly lower representational cost, relative to an arbitrary AGM revision function, and an embedded solution to the iterated-revision problem, at no extra representational cost. Herein, we first demonstrate how weaker, more expressive—yet, more representationally expensive—types of uniform revision can be defined. Furthermore, we prove that UR operators, essentially, generalize a significant type of belief change, namely, parametrized-difference revision. Lastly, we show that they are (to some extent) relevance-sensitive, as well as that they respect the so-called principle of kinetic consistency.


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