scholarly journals Dynamical Analysis of a Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Spreading on Networks

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wang Li ◽  
Xinjie Fu ◽  
Yongzheng Sun ◽  
Maoxing Liu
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Dynamical Analysis ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Effective Strategies ◽  
Disease Spreading ◽  
Next Generation Matrix ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

In this article, an SEAIRS model of COVID-19 epidemic on networks is established and analyzed. Following the method of the next-generation matrix, we derive the basic reproduction number R0, and it shows that the asymptomatic infector plays an important role in disease spreading. We analytically show that the disease-free equilibrium E0 is asymptotically stable if R0≤1; moreover, the effects of various quarantine strategies are investigated and compared by numerical simulations. The results obtained are informative for us to further understand the asymptomatic infector in COVID-19 propagation and get some effective strategies to control the disease.

scholarly journals Stability of a Mathematical Model of Malaria Transmission with Relapse

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hai-Feng Huo ◽  
Guang-Ming Qiu
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Recovery Rate ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Next Generation Matrix ◽  
The Government ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

A more realistic mathematical model of malaria is introduced, in which we not only consider the recovered humans return to the susceptible class, but also consider the recovered humans return to the infectious class. The basic reproduction numberR0is calculated by next generation matrix method. It is shown that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable ifR0≤1, and the system is uniformly persistence ifR0>1. Some numerical simulations are also given to explain our analytical results. Our results show that to control and eradicate the malaria, it is very necessary for the government to decrease the relapse rate and increase the recovery rate.

scholarly journals Simple MSEIR Model for Measles Transmission

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Mojeeb Al-Rahman EL-Nor Osman ◽  
Appiagyei Ebenezer ◽  
Isaac Kwasi Adu
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Recovery Rate ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Progression Rate ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

In this paper, an Immunity-Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovery (MSEIR) mathematical model was used to study the dynamics of measles transmission. We discussed that there exist a disease-free and an endemic equilibria. We also discussed the stability of both disease-free and endemic equilibria.  The basic reproduction number  is obtained. If , then the measles will spread and persist in the population. If , then the disease will die out.  The disease was locally asymptotically stable if  and unstable if  . ALSO, WE PROVED THE GLOBAL STABILITY FOR THE DISEASE-FREE EQUILIBRIUM USING LASSALLE'S INVARIANCE PRINCIPLE OF Lyaponuv function. Furthermore, the endemic equilibrium was locally asymptotically stable if , under certain conditions. Numerical simulations were conducted to confirm our analytic results. Our findings were that, increasing the birth rate of humans, decreasing the progression rate, increasing the recovery rate and reducing the infectious rate can be useful in controlling and combating the measles.

scholarly journals A Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Bangkok, Thailand

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Pakwan Riyapan ◽  
Sherif Eneye Shuaib ◽  
Arthit Intarasit
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Next Generation Matrix ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

In this study, we propose a new mathematical model and analyze it to understand the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangkok, Thailand. It is divided into seven compartmental classes, namely, susceptible S , exposed E , symptomatically infected I s , asymptomatically infected I a , quarantined Q , recovered R , and death D , respectively. The next-generation matrix approach was used to compute the basic reproduction number denoted as R cvd 19 of the proposed model. The results show that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R cvd 19 < 1 . On the other hand, the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium occurs if R cvd 19 > 1 . The mathematical analysis of the model is supported using numerical simulations. Moreover, the model’s analysis and numerical results prove that the consistent use of face masks would go on a long way in reducing the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Mathematical Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics with a Case Study of Nigeria and its Computer Simulation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. C. Agbata ◽  
Ogala Emmanuel ◽  
Tenuche Bashir ◽  
Obeng-Denteh William
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Deadly Disease ◽  
Next Generation Matrix ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

AbstractIn this article, we formulated a mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease and we introduced quarantined and isolated compartments. The next generation matrix method was adopted to compute the basic reproduction number (R0) in order to assess the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 deadly disease. Stability analysis of the disease free equilibrium is investigated based on the basic reproduction number and the result shows that it is locally and asymptotically stable for R0 less than 1. Numerical calculation of the basic reproduction number revealed that R0 < 1 which means that the disease can be eradicated from Nigeria. The study shows that isolation, quarantine and other government policies like social distancing and lockdown are the best approaches to control the pernicious nature of COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Dynamics of A Multi-stage Epidemic Model with and without Treatment

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 5293-5300
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Numerical Solutions ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Dynamical Behaviour ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

In this paper, a non-linear mathematical model is proposed with the thought of treatment to depict the spread of infectious illness and assessed with three contamination stages. We talk about the dynamical behaviour and analytical study of the framework for the mathematical model which shows that it has two non-negative equilibrium points i.e., disease-free equilibrium (DFE) and interior(endemic) equilibrium. The outcomes show that the dynamical behaviour of the model is totally determined by the basic reproduction number. For the basic reproduction number , the disease-free equilibrium is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable under a particular parameter set. In case , the model at the interior equilibrium is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable. Finally, numerical solutions of the model corroborate the analytical results and facilitate a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters.

Dynamical system of a SEIQV epidemic model with nonlinear generalized incidence rate arising in biology

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (07) ◽  
pp. 1750096 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Altaf Khan ◽  
Yasir Khan ◽  
Taj Wali Khan ◽  
Saeed Islam
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical System ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

In this paper, a dynamical system of a SEIQV mathematical model with nonlinear generalized incidence arising in biology is investigated. The stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibrium is discussed. The basic reproduction number of the model is obtained. We found that the disease-free and endemic equilibrium is stable locally as well as globally asymptotically stable. For [Formula: see text], the disease-free equilibrium is stable both locally and globally and for [Formula: see text], the endemic equilibrium is stable globally asymptotically. Finally, some numerical results are presented.

scholarly journals An SEIQR Mathematical Model for The Spread of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
pp. 35-41
Author(s):  
Samuel B. Apima ◽  
Jacinta M. Mutwiwa
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Lyapunov Functions ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

COVID-19, a novel coronavirus, is a respiratory infection which is spread between humans through small droplets expelled when a person with COVID-19 sneezes, coughs, or speaks. An SEIQR model to investigate the spread of COVID-19 was formulated and analysed. The disease free equilibrium point for formulated model was shown to be globally asymptotically stable. The endemic states were shown to exist provided that the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. By use of Routh-Hurwitz criterion and suitable Lyapunov functions, the endemic states are shown to be locally and globally asymptotically stable respectively. This means that any perturbation of the model by the introduction of infectives the model solutions will converge to the endemic states whenever reproduction number is greater than one, thus the disease transmission levels can be kept quite low or manageable with minimal deaths at the peak times of the re-occurrence.

scholarly journals Global Dynamics of an SIQR Model with Vaccination and Elimination Hybrid Strategies

Mathematics ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (12) ◽  
pp. 328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanli Ma ◽  
Jia-Bao Liu ◽  
Haixia Li
Keyword(s):  
Lyapunov Function ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Global Dynamics ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

In this paper, an SIQR (Susceptible, Infected, Quarantined, Recovered) epidemic model with vaccination, elimination, and quarantine hybrid strategies is proposed, and the dynamics of this model are analyzed by both theoretical and numerical means. Firstly, the basic reproduction number R 0 , which determines whether the disease is extinct or not, is derived. Secondly, by LaSalles invariance principle, it is proved that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R 0 < 1 , and the disease dies out. By Routh-Hurwitz criterion theory, we also prove that the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the unique endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when R 0 > 1 . Thirdly, by constructing a suitable Lyapunov function, we obtain that the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and the disease persists at this endemic equilibrium if it initially exists when R 0 > 1 . Finally, some numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the analysis results.

scholarly journals Analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak in Northern Cyprus using a Mathematical Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamer Sanlidag ◽  
Nazife Sultanoglu ◽  
Bilgen Kaymakamzade ◽  
Evren Hincal ◽  
Murat Sayan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Northern Cyprus ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Abstract The present study studied the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Northern-Cyprus (NC) by using real data and a designed mathematical model. The model consisted of two equilibrium points, which were disease-free and epidemic. The stability of the equilibrium points was determined by the magnitude of the basic reproduction number (𝑹𝟎). If 𝑹𝟎 < 1, the disease eventually disappears, if 𝑹𝟎 ≥ 1, the presence of an epidemic is stated. 𝑹𝟎 has been calculated patient zero, with a range of 2.38 to 0.65. Currently, the 𝑹𝟎 for NC was found to be 0.65, indicating that NC is free from the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic.

scholarly journals Analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak in Northern Cyprus using a Mathematical Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamer Sanlidag ◽  
Nazife Sultanoglu ◽  
Bilgen Kaymakamzade ◽  
Evren Hincal ◽  
Murat Sayan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Northern Cyprus ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Abstract The present study studied the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Northern-Cyprus (NC) by using real data and a designed mathematical model. The model consisted of two equilibrium points, which were disease-free and epidemic. The stability of the equilibrium points was determined by the magnitude of the basic reproduction number (𝑹𝟎). If 𝑹𝟎 < 1, the disease eventually disappears, if 𝑹𝟎 ≥ 1, the presence of an epidemic is stated. 𝑹𝟎 has been calculated patient zero, with a range of 2.38 to 0.65. Currently, the 𝑹𝟎 for NC was found to be 0.65, indicating that NC is free from the SARS-CoV-2epidemic.

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