scholarly journals Principles and Practice of Explainable Machine Learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vaishak Belle ◽  
Ioannis Papantonis
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Data Science ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Law And Finance ◽  
Industry Standards ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
The Right ◽  
Post Hoc

Artificial intelligence (AI) provides many opportunities to improve private and public life. Discovering patterns and structures in large troves of data in an automated manner is a core component of data science, and currently drives applications in diverse areas such as computational biology, law and finance. However, such a highly positive impact is coupled with a significant challenge: how do we understand the decisions suggested by these systems in order that we can trust them? In this report, we focus specifically on data-driven methods—machine learning (ML) and pattern recognition models in particular—so as to survey and distill the results and observations from the literature. The purpose of this report can be especially appreciated by noting that ML models are increasingly deployed in a wide range of businesses. However, with the increasing prevalence and complexity of methods, business stakeholders in the very least have a growing number of concerns about the drawbacks of models, data-specific biases, and so on. Analogously, data science practitioners are often not aware about approaches emerging from the academic literature or may struggle to appreciate the differences between different methods, so end up using industry standards such as SHAP. Here, we have undertaken a survey to help industry practitioners (but also data scientists more broadly) understand the field of explainable machine learning better and apply the right tools. Our latter sections build a narrative around a putative data scientist, and discuss how she might go about explaining her models by asking the right questions. From an organization viewpoint, after motivating the area broadly, we discuss the main developments, including the principles that allow us to study transparent models vs. opaque models, as well as model-specific or model-agnostic post-hoc explainability approaches. We also briefly reflect on deep learning models, and conclude with a discussion about future research directions.

COVID-19 Outbreak Prediction with Machine Learning

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sina Faizollahzadeh Ardabili ◽  
Amir Mosavi ◽  
Pedram Ghamisi ◽  
Filip Ferdinand ◽  
Annamaria R. Varkonyi-Koczy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Standard Models ◽  
High Level

Several outbreak prediction models for COVID-19 are being used by officials around the world to make informed-decisions and enforce relevant control measures. Among the standard models for COVID-19 global pandemic prediction, simple epidemiological and statistical models have received more attention by authorities, and they are popular in the media. Due to a high level of uncertainty and lack of essential data, standard models have shown low accuracy for long-term prediction. Although the literature includes several attempts to address this issue, the essential generalization and robustness abilities of existing models needs to be improved. This paper presents a comparative analysis of machine learning and soft computing models to predict the COVID-19 outbreak as an alternative to SIR and SEIR models. Among a wide range of machine learning models investigated, two models showed promising results (i.e., multi-layered perceptron, MLP, and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system, ANFIS). Based on the results reported here, and due to the highly complex nature of the COVID-19 outbreak and variation in its behavior from nation-to-nation, this study suggests machine learning as an effective tool to model the outbreak. This paper provides an initial benchmarking to demonstrate the potential of machine learning for future research. Paper further suggests that real novelty in outbreak prediction can be realized through integrating machine learning and SEIR models.

The Effects of Technology Supports on Community Grocery Shopping Skills for Students With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities: A Meta-Analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 016264342198997
Author(s):  
Sojung Jung ◽  
Ciara Ousley ◽  
David McNaughton ◽  
Pamela Wolfe
Keyword(s):  
Developmental Disabilities ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Single Case ◽  
Effect Sizes ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Intellectual And Developmental Disabilities ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Analytic Review ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

In this meta-analytic review, we investigated the effects of technology supports on the acquisition of shopping skills for students with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) between the ages of 5 and 24. Nineteen single-case experimental research studies, presented in 15 research articles, met the current study’s inclusion criteria and the What Works Clearinghouse (WWC) standards. An analysis of potential moderators was conducted, and we calculated effect sizes using Tau-U to examine the impact of age, diagnosis, and type of technology on the reported outcomes for the 56 participants. The results from the included studies provide evidence that a wide range of technology interventions had a positive impact on shopping performance. These positive effects were seen for individuals across a wide range of ages and disability types, and for a wide variety of shopping skills. The strongest effect sizes were observed for technologies that provided visual supports rather than just auditory support. We provide an interpretation of the findings, implications of the results, and recommended areas for future research.

scholarly journals The quest for interpretable and responsible artificial intelligence

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (5) ◽  
pp. 16-19
Author(s):  
Vaishak Belle
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Computational Biology ◽  
Data Science ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Public Life ◽  
Core Component ◽  
Finance Law ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
And Robotics

Artificial intelligence (AI) provides many opportunities to improve private and public life. Discovering patterns and structures in large troves of data in an automated manner is a core component of data science, and currently drives applications in computational biology, finance, law and robotics. However, such a highly positive impact is coupled with significant challenges: how do we understand the decisions suggested by these systems in order that we can trust them? How can they be held accountable for those decisions?

The Emotional Economy of Holidaymaking

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaara Benger Alaluf
Keyword(s):  
Civil Rights ◽  
Central Place ◽  
Economic Thought ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Late Nineteenth Century ◽  
Parliamentary Debates ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Personal Accounts ◽  
The Right

It is often taken for granted that holiday resorts sell intangible commodities such as freedom, enjoyment, pleasure, and relaxation. But how did the desire for a ‘happy holiday’ emerge, how was ‘the right to rest’ legitimized, and how are emotions produced by commercial enterprises? To answer these questions, The Emotional Economy of Holidaymaking explores the rise of popular holidaymaking in late-nineteenth-century Britain. Drawing on a wide range of texts, including medical literature, parliamentary debates, advertisements, travel guides, and personal accounts, the book unravels the role emotions played in British spa and seaside holiday cultures. Introducing the concept of an ‘emotional economy’, Yaara Benger Alaluf traces the overlapping impact that psychological and economic thought had on moral ideals and performative practices of work and leisure. Through a vivid account of changing attitudes toward health, pleasure, social class, and gender in late-Victorian and Edwardian Britain, she explains why the democratization of holidaymaking went hand in hand with its emotionalization. Combining the history of emotions with the sociology of commodification, the book offers an innovative approach to the study of the leisure and entertainment industries and a better understanding of how medicalized conceptions of emotions influenced people’s dispositions, desires, consumption habits, and civil rights. Looking ahead to the central place of tourism in twenty-first-century societies and its relation to stress and burnout, The emotional economy of holidaymaking calls on future research of past and present leisure cultures to take emotions seriously and to rethink notions of rationality, authenticity, and agency.

Alignment for Advanced Machine Learning Systems

2020 ◽  
pp. 342-382
Author(s):  
Jessica Taylor ◽  
Eliezer Yudkowsky ◽  
Patrick LaVictoire ◽  
Andrew Critch
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Side Effects ◽  
Objective Function ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Learning Systems ◽  
Large Impact ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Objective Functions ◽  
Research Areas ◽  
The Right

This chapter surveys eight research areas organized around one question: As learning systems become increasingly intelligent and autonomous, what design principles can best ensure that their behavior is aligned with the interests of the operators? The chapter focuses on two major technical obstacles to AI alignment: the challenge of specifying the right kind of objective functions and the challenge of designing AI systems that avoid unintended consequences and undesirable behavior even in cases where the objective function does not line up perfectly with the intentions of the designers. The questions surveyed include the following: How can we train reinforcement learners to take actions that are more amenable to meaningful assessment by intelligent overseers? What kinds of objective functions incentivize a system to “not have an overly large impact” or “not have many side effects”? The chapter discusses these questions, related work, and potential directions for future research, with the goal of highlighting relevant research topics in machine learning that appear tractable today.

scholarly journals Machine learning for determining accurate outcomes in criminal trials

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-65
Author(s):  
Jane Mitchell ◽  
Simon Mitchell ◽  
Cliff Mitchell
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Data Science ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Test Cases ◽  
Judicial Process ◽  
Criminal Trials ◽  
Wrongful Convictions ◽  
Potential Applications

Abstract Advances in mathematical and computational technologies have brought unique and ground-breaking benefits to diverse fields throughout society (engineering, medicine, economics, etc.). Within legal systems, however, the potential applications of data science and innovative mathematical tools have yet to be embraced with the same ambition. The complex decision-making that is needed for reaching just verdicts is often seen as out of reach for such approaches and, in the case of criminal trials, this inhibits exploration into whether machine learning could have a positive impact. Here, through assigning numerical scores to prosecution and defence evidence, and employing an approach based on dimensionality reduction, we showed that evidence strands presented at historical murder trials could be used to train effective machine-learning algorithms (or models). We tested the evidence quantification approach with the trained model and showed that, through machine learning, criminal cases could be clearly classified (probability >99.9%) as belonging to either a guilty or a not-guilty category. The classification was found to be as expected for all test cases. All guilty test cases that were not wrongful convictions were correctly assigned to the guilty category by our model and, crucially, test cases that were wrongful convictions were correctly assigned to the not-guilty category. This work demonstrated the potential for machine learning to benefit criminal trial decision-making, and should motivate further testing and development of the model and datasets for assisting the judicial process.

Big Data Methods

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 525-547 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Tonidandel ◽  
Eden B. King ◽  
Jose M. Cortina
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Data Mining ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Data Analytics ◽  
Data Science ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Organizational Science ◽  
Associated Data ◽  
Organizational Sciences

Advances in data science, such as data mining, data visualization, and machine learning, are extremely well-suited to address numerous questions in the organizational sciences given the explosion of available data. Despite these opportunities, few scholars in our field have discussed the specific ways in which the lens of our science should be brought to bear on the topic of big data and big data's reciprocal impact on our science. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the big data phenomenon and its potential for impacting organizational science in both positive and negative ways. We identifying the biggest opportunities afforded by big data along with the biggest obstacles, and we discuss specifically how we think our methods will be most impacted by the data analytics movement. We also provide a list of resources to help interested readers incorporate big data methods into their existing research. Our hope is that we stimulate interest in big data, motivate future research using big data sources, and encourage the application of associated data science techniques more broadly in the organizational sciences.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Outbreak Prediction with Machine Learning

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sina Faizollahzadeh Ardabili ◽  
Amir Mosavi ◽  
Pedram Ghamisi ◽  
Filip Ferdinand ◽  
Annamaria R. Varkonyi-Koczy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Standard Models ◽  
High Level

Several outbreak prediction models for COVID-19 are being used by officials around the world to make informed-decisions and enforce relevant control measures. Among the standard models for COVID-19 global pandemic prediction, simple epidemiological and statistical models have received more attention by authorities, and they are popular in the media. Due to a high level of uncertainty and lack of essential data, standard models have shown low accuracy for long-term prediction. Although the literature includes several attempts to address this issue, the essential generalization and robustness abilities of existing models needs to be improved. This paper presents a comparative analysis of machine learning and soft computing models to predict the COVID-19 outbreak as an alternative to SIR and SEIR models. Among a wide range of machine learning models investigated, two models showed promising results (i.e., multi-layered perceptron, MLP, and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system, ANFIS). Based on the results reported here, and due to the highly complex nature of the COVID-19 outbreak and variation in its behavior from nation-to-nation, this study suggests machine learning as an effective tool to model the outbreak. This paper provides an initial benchmarking to demonstrate the potential of machine learning for future research. Paper further suggests that real novelty in outbreak prediction can be realized through integrating machine learning and SEIR models.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Outbreak Prediction with Machine Learning

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sina F. Ardabili ◽  
Amir Mosavi ◽  
Pedram Ghamisi ◽  
Filip Ferdinand ◽  
Annamaria R. Varkonyi-Koczy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Standard Models ◽  
High Level

Abstract Several outbreak prediction models for COVID-19 are being used by officials around the world to make informed-decisions and enforce relevant control measures. Among the standard models for COVID-19 global pandemic prediction, simple epidemiological and statistical models have received more attention by authorities, and they are popular in the media. Due to a high level of uncertainty and lack of essential data, standard models have shown low accuracy for long-term prediction. Although the literature includes several attempts to address this issue, the essential generalization and robustness abilities of existing models needs to be improved. This paper presents a comparative analysis of machine learning and soft computing models to predict the COVID-19 outbreak as an alternative to susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) and susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) models. Among a wide range of machine learning models investigated, two models showed promising results (i.e., multi-layered perceptron, MLP, and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system, ANFIS). Based on the results reported here, and due to the highly complex nature of the COVID-19 outbreak and variation in its behavior from nation-to-nation, this study suggests machine learning as an effective tool to model the outbreak. This paper provides an initial benchmarking to demonstrate the potential of machine learning for future research. Paper further suggests that real novelty in outbreak prediction can be realized through integrating machine learning and SEIR models.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Outbreak Prediction with Machine Learning

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sina Faizollahzadeh Ardabili ◽  
Amir Mosavi ◽  
Pedram Ghamisi ◽  
Filip Ferdinand ◽  
Annamaria R. Varkonyi-Koczy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Standard Models ◽  
High Level

Several outbreak prediction models for COVID-19 are being used by officials around the world to make informed-decisions and enforce relevant control measures. Among the standard models for COVID-19 global pandemic prediction, simple epidemiological and statistical models have received more attention by authorities, and they are popular in the media. Due to a high level of uncertainty and lack of essential data, standard models have shown low accuracy for long-term prediction. Although the literature includes several attempts to address this issue, the essential generalization and robustness abilities of existing models needs to be improved. This paper presents a comparative analysis of machine learning and soft computing models to predict the COVID-19 outbreak as an alternative to SIR and SEIR models. Among a wide range of machine learning models investigated, two models showed promising results (i.e., multi-layered perceptron, MLP, and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system, ANFIS). Based on the results reported here, and due to the highly complex nature of the COVID-19 outbreak and variation in its behavior from nation-to-nation, this study suggests machine learning as an effective tool to model the outbreak. This paper provides an initial benchmarking to demonstrate the potential of machine learning for future research. Paper further suggests that real novelty in outbreak prediction can be realized through integrating machine learning and SEIR models.

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