scholarly journals Election Polls, Free Trade, and the Stock Market: Evidence from the Canadian General Election

10.3386/w3073 ◽  
1989 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Brander
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
General Election ◽  
Election Polls

scholarly journals Asking about social circles improves election predictions even with many political parties

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wandi Bruine de Bruin ◽  
Mirta Galesic ◽  
Rasmus A. Bååth ◽  
Jochem de Bresser ◽  
Lars Hall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
General Election ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Social Circle ◽  
The Social ◽  
Election Polls ◽  
Voting Intentions

Traditionally, election polls have asked for participants’ own voting intentions. In Nature HumanBehaviour, we reported that we could improve predictions of the 2016 US and 2017 Frenchpresidential elections by asking participants how they thought their social circles would vote. Apotential concern is that the social circle question might predict less well in elections with largernumbers of political options, because it becomes harder to keep track of how social contacts planto vote. However, we have now found that the social circle question even performs better thanthe own intention question, in predictions of two elections with many political parties: The Netherlands’2017 general election and the Swedish 2018 general election.

The End of Tourism as We Know It

2019 ◽  
pp. 14-28
Author(s):  
Maximiliano Emanuel Korstanje ◽  
Babu George
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Western Civilization ◽  
Human Suffering ◽  
Dark Tourism ◽  
New Horizons ◽  
The World ◽  
Interesting Discussion ◽  
Slum Tourism ◽  
Jihadist Terrorism

The present chapter posits an interesting discussion revolving around the term Thana Capitalism, which was originally formulated in earlier works. Originally formulated to serve as an opposite alternative against neo-pragmatism, neoliberalism toyed with the belief that the world can be united through the consumption and free trade. During 80s and 90s decades, the theory of development adopted tourism as an efficient instrument to struggle with poverty. Under the auspices of neoliberalism, modern tourism not only paved the ways for an “Kantian eternal peace,” but also conducted a much deeper process of democratization beyond the borders of Western civilization. After the recent, stock market crisis in 2008, tourism not only was placed in jeopardy by the advance of jihadist terrorism but mutated towards more morbid forms of consumption, which made from human suffering as a tantalizing criterion of attraction. Thana-Tourism, War tourism, Dark Tourism or slum tourism are indicators that the society is changing towards new horizons.

scholarly journals General Election and Stock Market Performance: A Malaysian Case

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 139
Author(s):  
Faridah Najuna Misman ◽  
Shashazrina Roslan ◽  
Muhammad Izzat Mat Aladin
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
General Election ◽  
Political Arena ◽  
Political Structure ◽  
Stock Market Performance

The 2018 Malaysia general election has marked a new history for the Malaysia political structure. After more than 60 years Barisan Nasional ruling the country, in the 2018 general election Barisan Nasional lose the game to the Pakatan Harapan. The results of the 14th general election has caused a shock not only to political arena but also to the Malaysian financial market. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate if there is any significant effect of 14th Malaysia general election on the Malaysia financial market specifically the stock market. Results from the statistical analysis reveal that there are significant changes in the Malaysia stock market performance after the 14th general election.

scholarly journals The Effect of Political Elections on Stock Market Volatility in Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3.21) ◽  
pp. 114
Author(s):  
Ricky Chia Chee Jiun
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
General Election ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Stock Volatility ◽  
Volatility Risk ◽  
Company Stock ◽  
General Elections

During the past general elections held in Malaysia, empirical evidence showed a significant election effect in stock volatility. In this study, we investigate the influence of election on Malaysian stock market during the 12th and 13th general election where political tensions persisted due to the close fight between the two major parties. The findings indicate that the political uncertainty surrounding elections significantly affected investors respond. Results from statistical analysis uncover significant higher stock volatility in the pre-general election periods. Nevertheless, lower stock volatility is only found in two stock indices in the post-general election periods. By using the EGARCH model, a significant election effect is found in stock volatility but not in stock returns. Notably, political uncertainty showed up its significant role in influencing the stock volatility prior to the general elections in the year 2008 and 2013. Furthermore, lower stock volatility is found in the Shariah-compliant indices and stock index with greater market capitalization. Our findings have important implications for investors who are exposed to volatility risk. Investors may shift to large company stock and Shariah-compliant stock during the general election period. Investors should also be cautious because the high volatility is not compensated with a significant abnormal return. 

India’s growth will be fragile

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
General Election ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Hindu Nationalism ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Current Account

Subject Outlook for India's GDP growth. Significance India’s GDP statistics point to robust growth and its stock market indices suggest a boom. Yet inflation is high, the current account deficit is widening, the rupee has depreciated and investors are increasingly wary. Impacts Prime Minister Narendra Modi will highlight India’s growth figures in campaigning for a second term early next year. Opposition parties will push back on Modi by suggesting India’s growth is largely ‘jobless’. Any sign of an economic downturn prior to the general election could prompt Modi to appeal more to Hindu nationalism to garner support.

New York Sybarite Conquers the South

2019 ◽  
pp. 128-150
Author(s):  
Charles S. Bullock ◽  
Susan A. MacManus ◽  
Jeremy D. Mayer ◽  
Mark J. Rozell
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Gun Control ◽  
General Election ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Southern States ◽  
White Voters ◽  
Racial Resentment ◽  
Republican Nomination

Donald Trump, the thrice married and publicly philandering Manhattan resident who had recently been pro-choice and pro-gun control, won the Republican nomination and the presidency in 2016 in part through his very strong showing among Southern white voters. How he managed to do that is the story of this chapter. Trump appealed to Southern white racial resentment, as well as to the anti-immigration fervor particularly evident in the low growth “stagnant” Southern states such as Alabama and Mississippi. But what was really remarkable is how he won the GOP nomination by doing well in all regions. The Republican Party has become unified around a largely Southern conception of conservatism: deeply religious, pro-military, and less concerned with free trade. In the general election, by contrast, regional polarization intensified in 2016. In both elections, Trump’s path to victory required him to do well among Southern whites, which he ably did.

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