scholarly journals Interest Rate Uncertainty and Sovereign Default Risk

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alok Johri ◽  
Shahed Khan ◽  
César Sosa-Padilla
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alok Johri ◽  
Shahed Khan ◽  
César Sosa‐Padilla

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (240) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas McGregor

How do oil price movements affect sovereign spreads in an oil-dependent economy? I develop a stochastic general equilibrium model of an economy exposed to co-moving oil price and output processes, with endogenous sovereign default risk. The model explains a large proportion of business cycle fluctuations in interest-rate spreads in oil-exporting emerging market economies, particularly the countercyclicallity of interest rate spreads and oil prices. Higher risk-aversion, more impatient governments, larger oil shares and a stronger correlation between domestic output and oil price shocks all lead to stronger co-movements between risk premiums and the oil price.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alok Johri ◽  
Shahed Khan ◽  
César Sosa‐Padilla

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