scholarly journals Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saten Kumar ◽  
Hassan Afrouzi ◽  
Olivier Coibion ◽  
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Expectations

scholarly journals Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 (2) ◽  
pp. 151-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saten Kumar ◽  
Hassan Afrouzi ◽  
Olivier Coibion ◽  
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Expectations

scholarly journals Inflation Expectations in Turkey: Determinants and Roles in Missing Inflation Targets

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 73-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Umit Bulut
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Inflation Target ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Target Output

Abstract This paper aims at specifying the determinants of 12-month ahead and 24-month ahead inflation expectations in Turkey by using monthly data from April 2006 to December 2016. Put differently, this paper tries to shed light on how inflation expectations respond to changes in past inflation rate, inflation target, output gap, USD/TL exchange rate, oil price, and EMBI in Turkey. To this end, the paper first conducts unit root tests in order to detect the order of integration of the variables. Then, the paper employs the autoregressive distributed lag approach to examine whether there is a cointegration relationship among variables and to estimate long-run parameters. According to the findings, 12-month ahead expected inflation rate is positively related to past inflation rate, inflation target, output gap, USD/TL exchange rate, and oil price and is negatively related to EMBI. Besides, 24-month ahead expected inflation rate is positively related to past inflation rate and USD/TL exchange rate and is negatively related to inflation target and EMBI. Upon its findings, the paper makes some inferences about the success of inflation targeting strategy in Turkey.

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF SBI RATE THROUGH FINANCIAL SYSTEM TO ECONOMIC GROWTH OF INDONESIA

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Donni Fajar Anugrah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Financial System

Bank Indonesia menerapkan Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF) sejak tahun 2000 dengan menggunakan base money sebagai alat kebijakan moneternya. Hasil penerapan framework ini kurang optimal jika melihat inflasi aktual yang tidak selalu berada dalam kisaran target yang telah diumumkan. Di sisi lain, beberapa negara yang juga menerapkan ITF, seperti New Zealand, telah berhasil mencapai tingkat inflasi yang rendah sesuai dengan target yang diumumkan. Mereka menggunakan suku bunga sebagai alat kebijakan moneter dalam penerapan ITF. Oleh karena itu, Bank Indonesia memutuskan untuk menggunakan suku bunga SBI sebagi alat kebijakan untuk mencapai inflasi yang rendah.Permasalahan yang perlu mendapat perhatian yaitu seberapa besar efek dari kebijakan ini terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi secara bertahap. Dalam penerapannya, suku bunga SBI akan mempengaruhi sistem keuangan melalui suku bunga pasar, seperti suku bunga PUAB dan kredit. Secara teoritis kedua suku bunga pasar terseut dapat mempengaruhi konsumsi dan investasi. Penelitian ini akan lebih difokuskan pada efek suku bunga pada konsumsi dan investasi yang pada akhirnya berdampak pada tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi.Dengan menggunakan pendekatan Joahnsen, akan dapat dijelaskakn hubungan jangka panjang antar variabel dan menghasilakn ECM yang digunakan dalam model jangka pendeknya. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa suku bunga dan konsumsi memiliki hubungan negatif hanya di jangka pendek. Sedangkan suku bunga dengan investasi berhbungan negatif dalam jangka panjang. Hasil akhir menunjukkan peningkatan  suku bunga akan berakibat pada penurunan pertumbuhan ekonomi.Keywords: central bank, sbi rate, consumption, investmentm economic growth, inflation targetingJEL: E21, E52, E58, F43

Inflation targeting and inflation expectations in Mexico

2012 ◽  
Vol 45 (23) ◽  
pp. 3295-3304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos A. Carrasco ◽  
Jesus Ferreiro
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Expectations

scholarly journals Development of Inflation Expectations in Serbia and a Comparative Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-79
Author(s):  
Vesna Martin
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Inflation Expectation ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Targeting Strategy

AbstractInflation expectations are very important when it comes to monetary policy and its decisions. In countries which are applying inflation targeting, inflation expectations reflect prediction of economic agents of movement of inflation rate in mid and long term. Anchored inflation expectations and their movements within target tolerance band are pointing to effectiveness of the inflation targeting strategy. Consistent with the best international practice, after introducing the inflation targeting regime in January 2009, the National Bank of Serbia began monitoring and analysing inflation expectations of economic agents (financial sector, corporate sector, trade unions, and households). The aim of this paper is to analyse inflation expectations in Serbia, but also to give a comparative analysis of inflation expectation of other countries which are using inflation targeting and floating exchange rate, as is the case of the National Bank of Serbia.

scholarly journals DIRECTIONS OF ADAPTATION OF THE NBU MONEY AND CREDIT ADJUSTMENT TO THE INFLATION TARGETING MODE ON THE EXAMPLE OF NEW ZEALAND

2018 ◽  
pp. 196-205
Author(s):  
Liudmyla Seheda
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Transitional Period ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Policy Objectives ◽  
Low Efficiency

Introduction. The article deals with the main problems of adaptation of the NBU monetary and credit regulation to the inflation-targeting mode. The main reasons for the low efficiency of the introduction of world experience in the field of monetary policy to domestic realities are considered. The methodical recommendations for increasing the efficiency of monetary regulation, optimizing the monetary mode of inflation targeting and implementing the monetary rule in the practice of realization of monetary policy of the NBU are developed. Purpose. The article aims to study the world experience in the field of adapting monetary and credit regulation to the monetary mode of inflation targeting on the example of New Zealand and to develop the theoretical and practical conclusions for Ukraine. Method (methodology). The following general scientific methods have been used in this research: method of synthesis and generalization (to substantiate the basic problems of monetary regulation in the context of realization of the monetary regime of inflation targeting in Ukraine); methods of analysis and comparison (to study the experience of New Zealand in the field of the formation of the monetary mode of inflationary regulation); statistical and mathematical methods (to develop monetary rule in Ukraine). Results. The main problems of low efficiency of monetary regulation in Ukraine that are related to the neglect of national interests, imbalances in the development of the national economy, inappropriate structure of exports and imports, negative business environment, and conditions for the absorption of monetary impulses have been identified. The experience of New Zealand in the field of the formation of the monetary mode of inflation targeting has been researched. It has been made the conclusion concerning a long transitional period during which, at the level of inflationary purposes, de facto, as intermediate monetary policy objectives, the exchange rate and liquidity of the banking system are used. The monetary rule for Ukraine has been developed. The methodical recommendations for increasing the effectiveness of the monetary and credit regulation of the NBU within the framework of flexible inflation targeting have been worked out.

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