scholarly journals Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Blanchard ◽  
Daniel Leigh
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers

scholarly journals Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Blanchard ◽  
Daniel Leigh ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers

Learning about Fiscal Multipliers from Growth Forecast Errors

2014 ◽  
Vol 62 (2) ◽  
pp. 179-212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier J Blanchard ◽  
Daniel Leigh
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers

scholarly journals Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier J. Blanchard ◽  
Daniel Leigh
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers

scholarly journals Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers

2013 ◽  
Vol 103 (3) ◽  
pp. 117-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier J Blanchard ◽  
Daniel Leigh
Keyword(s):  
Early Years ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Lower Growth ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Advanced Economies

This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected. The relation is particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may in part reflect learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.

scholarly journals Planned Fiscal Consolidations and Growth Forecast Errors – New Panel Evidence on Fiscal Multipliers

2015 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-70
Author(s):  
Ansgar Belke ◽  
Dominik Kronen ◽  
Thomas Osowski
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Learning Effects ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Fiscal Consolidations ◽  
Over Time

Abstract This paper analyzes the effect of planned fiscal consolidation on GDP growth forecast errors from the years 2010-2013 using cross section analyses and fixed effects estimations. Our main findings are that fiscal multipliers have been underestimated in most instances for the year 2011 while we find little to no evidence for the years 2010 and especially the latter years 2012/13. Since the underestimation of fiscal multipliers seems to have decreased over time, it may indicate learning effects of forecasters. However, the implications for fiscal policy should be considered with caution as a false forecast of fiscal multipliers does not confirm that austerity is the wrong fiscal approach but only suggests a too optimistic assessment of fiscal multipliers for the year 2011.

Russia’s fiscal stimulus and fiscal sustainability

2013 ◽  
pp. 90-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Akindinova ◽  
N. Kondrashov ◽  
A. Cherniavsky
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Macroeconomic Model ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of public expenditure on economic growth in Russia. Fiscal multipliers for various items of government spending are calculated by means of our macroeconomic model of the Russian economy. Resources for fiscal stimulus and optimization are analyzed. In this study we assess Russia’s fiscal sustainability in conditions of various levels of oil prices. We conclude that fiscal stimulus is ineffective in Russia, while fiscal sustainability in conditions of a sharp drop in oil prices is relatively low.

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