scholarly journals Current Account Dynamics and the Terms of Trade: Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Two Generations Later

10.3386/w1129 ◽  
1983 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torsten Persson ◽  
Lars E.O. Svensson
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Current Account Dynamics ◽  
Two Generations

scholarly journals Ocena efektu Harbergera-Laursena-Metzlera w polskim sektorze rolno-żywnościowym

2019 ◽  
Vol 106 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-50
Author(s):  
Jacek Strojny
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
The Other ◽  
Food Sector ◽  
Exogenous Factor ◽  
Trade Shocks ◽  
Gross Value Added ◽  
The Current Account

The aim of the study was to asses the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect in Polish agro-food sector. The analysis covers period of 2002-2017. There was applied the vector autoregression (VAR) methodology. The outcome of the research revealed that permanent deterioration in terms of trade contributed to the current account of Polish agribusiness sector improvement. The temporary effect of terms of trade shocks was not indentified. Additionally, the research enabled recognition of gross value added (GVA) as the most exogenous factor of the VAR system. On the other hand most endogenous factor of the model is the current account. The variable permanent terms of trade is more exogenous factor than the current account.

scholarly journals The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect: Evidence from Pakistan

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tayyaba Idrees ◽  
Saira Tufail
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Temporary Increase ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Time Series Dataset ◽  
The Current Account

According to the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect, an exogenous temporary increase in the terms of trade leads to an improvement in the current account balance. This paper uses a recursive vector autoregression to investigate empirically the existence of the HLM effect in Pakistan, using a time series dataset for the period 1980–2009. Two important results emerge. First, real income deteriorates with an improvement in the terms of trade. Second, the current account balance also responds negatively to innovations in the terms of trade, which implies that the HLM effect does not exist in Pakistan.

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