scholarly journals The Predictive Content of Energy Futures: An Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Menzie Chinn ◽  
Michael LeBlanc ◽  
Olivier Coibion
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Energy Futures ◽  
Gas Heating ◽  
Heating Oil ◽  
Predictive Content

scholarly journals Best Fitting Fat Tail Distribution for the Volatilities of Energy Futures: Gev, Gat and Stable Distributions in GARCH and APARCH Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samet Gunay ◽  
Audil Khaki
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Normal Distribution ◽  
Stable Distributions ◽  
Energy Markets ◽  
Trading Strategies ◽  
Fat Tails ◽  
Oil Futures ◽  
Energy Futures ◽  
Heating Oil ◽  
Risk Managers

Precise modeling and forecasting of the volatility of energy futures is vital to structuring trading strategies in spot markets for risk managers. Capturing conditional distribution, fat tails and price spikes properly is crucial to the correct measurement of risk. This paper is an attempt to model volatility of energy futures under different distributions. In empirical analysis, we estimate the volatility of Natural Gas Futures, Brent Oil Futures and Heating Oil Futures through GARCH and APARCH models under gev, gat and alpha-stable distributions. We also applied various VaR analyses, Gaussian, Historical and Modified (Cornish-Fisher) VaR, for each variable. Results suggest that the APARCH model largely outperforms the GARCH model, and gat distribution performs better in modeling fat tails in returns. Our results also indicate that the correct volatility level, in gat distribution, is higher than those suggested under normal distribution with rates of 56%, 45% and 67% for Natural Gas Futures, Brent Oil Futures and Heating Oil Futures, respectively. Implemented VaR analyses also support this conclusion. Additionally, VaR test results demonstrate that energy futures display riskier behavior than S&P 500 returns. Our findings suggest that for optimum risk management and trading strategies, risk managers should consider alternative distributions in their models. According to our results, prices in energy markets are wilder than the perception of normal distribution. In this regard, regulators and policy makers should enhance transparency and competitiveness in the energy markets to protect consumers.

Can energy commodities affect energy blockchain-based cryptos?

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 682-699 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ikhlaas Gurrib
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Autoregressive Model ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Heating Oil

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to shed fresh light into whether an energy commodity price index (ENFX) and energy blockchain-based crypto price index (ENCX) can be used to predict movements in the energy commodity and energy crypto market. Design/methodology/approach Using principal component analysis over daily data of crude oil, heating oil, natural gas and energy based cryptos, the ENFX and ENCX indices are constructed, where ENFX (ENCX) represents 94% (88%) of variability in energy commodity (energy crypto) prices. Findings Natural gas price movements were better explained by ENCX, and shared positive (negative) correlations with cryptos (crude oil and heating oil). Using a vector autoregressive model (VAR), while the 1-day lagged ENCX (ENFX) was significant in estimating current ENCX (ENFX) values, only lagged ENCX was significant in estimating current ENFX. Granger causality tests confirmed the two markets do not granger cause each other. One standard deviation shock in ENFX had a negative effect on ENCX. Weak forecasting results of the VAR model, support the two markets are not robust forecasters of each other. Robustness wise, the VAR model ranked lower than an autoregressive model, but higher than a random walk model. Research limitations/implications Significant structural breaks at distinct dates in the two markets reinforce that the two markets do not help to predict each other. The findings are limited by the existence of bubbles (December 2017-January 2018) which were witnessed in energy blockchain-based crypto markets and natural gas, but not in crude oil and heating oil. Originality/value As per the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to analyze the relationship between leading energy commodities and energy blockchain-based crypto markets.

scholarly journals Fuzzy Coordination Control Strategy and Thermohydraulic Dynamics Modeling of a Natural Gas Heating System for in Situ Soil Thermal Remediation

Entropy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (10) ◽  
pp. 971 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhai ◽  
Yang ◽  
Li ◽  
Jiang ◽  
Ye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Control Strategy ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Heating System ◽  
Coordination Control ◽  
Gas Heating ◽  
Thermal Remediation ◽  
Reduce Energy Consumption

Soil contamination remains a global problem. Among the different kinds of remediation technologies, in situ soil thermal remediation has attracted great attention in the environmental field, representing a potential remedial alternative for contaminated soils. Soils need to be heated to a high temperature in thermal remediation, which requires a large amount of energy. For the natural gas heating system in thermal remediation, a fuzzy coordination control strategy and thermohydraulic dynamics model have been proposed in this paper. In order to demonstrate the superiority of the strategy, the other three traditional control strategies are introduced. Analysis of the temperature rise and energy consumption of soils under different control strategies were conducted. The results showed that the energy consumption of fuzzy coordination control strategy is reduced by 33.9% compared to that of the traditional control strategy I, constant natural gas flow and excess air ratio. Further, compared to the traditional control strategy II, constant excess air ratio and desired outlet temperature of wells, the strategy proposed can reduce energy consumption by 48.7%. The results illustrate the superiority of the fuzzy coordination control strategy, and the strategy can greatly reduce energy consumption, thereby reducing the cost of in situ soil thermal remediation.

Influence of exhaust gas heating and L/D ratios on the discharge efficiencies for an activated carbon natural gas storage system

2014 ◽  
Vol 119 ◽  
pp. 190-203 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.K. Sahoo ◽  
B.P. Prajwal ◽  
Siva Kalyan Dasetty ◽  
M. John ◽  
B.L. Newalkar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Activated Carbon ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Storage System ◽  
Gas Storage ◽  
Exhaust Gas ◽  
Natural Gas Storage ◽  
Gas Heating

scholarly journals Analysis of the Efficiency of Circuits using Natural Gas Additional Energy Potentials on Cogenerating Boiler Houses with Internal Combustion Engines

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (9S3) ◽  
pp. 1-6
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Fuel Economy ◽  
Internal Combustion Engines ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Thermal Power ◽  
Boiler House ◽  
Internal Combustion ◽  
Additional Energy ◽  
Energy Effect ◽  
Gas Heating

The article studies the energy efficiency of various circuits using the energy of natural gas excessive pressure in expander-generator units installed before gas reciprocating engines in cogeneration boiler houses. The circuits with and without gas heating before the expander are considered. As an energy effect from the expander use at the cogeneration boiler house fuel economy is taken as compared with the circuits with gas throttling with constant production schedules of electrical and thermal power. The dependence on specific fuel economy determination is obtained. For the circuits being compared, the areas of the energy effect magnitude dependence on the outside temperature are allocated. It is shown that the circuit with heated gas before the expander will have the greatest energy effect at the outside air temperature up to the value corresponding to the equal values of specific fuel economy for the considered circuits and with disconnection of gas heating at higher air temperatures. The method proposed in the paper can be used to calculate the energy effect from various circuits of the expander application in cogeneration boiler houses with internal combustion engine both in exisiting ones and the ones which are under design.

Application of Cogeneration to the Heating of Natural Gas in Pipeline

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Fushimi ◽  
Mari´a Isabel Sosa ◽  
Guillermo Pitrelli ◽  
Vanesa I. Vasquez ◽  
Luis Vido ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Thermoelectric Power ◽  
Gas Turbines ◽  
Preliminary Analysis ◽  
Waste Heat ◽  
Power Station ◽  
Preliminary Calculation ◽  
Heating Systems ◽  
Combustion Gases ◽  
Gas Heating

In the Southern Region of our Country (Argentina), pipeline natural gas is heated up to suitable temperatures by combustion of natural gas in indirect type heating systems. In one of the points in which such heating is necessary, the pipeline that transports about 14 million standard cubic meters per day of natural gas at 45 bar of pressure and whose temperature is wanted to rise from −2°C to 30°C, is placed about 500 m away from of a regional thermoelectric power station. It has 3 7 MW gas turbines, exhausting 25.8 kg/s of combustion gases at 510°C each. A preliminary calculation showed that the waste heat of one of them can closely supply the necessary duty for gas heating. In this work, a preliminary analysis and economics of the system are described.

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