Balance of Payments and the Foreign Exchange Market: A Dynamic Partial Equilibrium Model

This article is devoted to building of the equilibrium model between demand and supply on foreign currency at the Ukrainian Interbank Foreign Exchange Market (non-cash share). The authors discussed that appeared trade-offs are a product of established current foreign arrangement, administrative measures provided by the National Bank of Ukraine and range of fundamental variables, which are traditionally significant for Ukrainian economy. By means of FAVAR modeling model of demand and supply equlibrium on non-cash foreign currency was built on empirical data of Ukrainian Interbank Foreign Exchange Market, splitted into the periods, proposed by the authors. Next, it was discussed disconnection properties in the model and shown log-linearized specification of the one. The efficiency of fulfillment hypothesis on decointegrating of the fundamental variables' time series has been provided in form of critical statistics values. Also, instrument of GAP analysis of deviation from equilibrium state was proposed and the further analysis of a regulation style of monetary authority was provided. In conclusion, it was summarized that increased share of the cash out of the banks has significantly jeopardized the price stability in Ukraine and the NBU interventions would become more effective if the flexible foreign exchange rate will be accompanied with flexible regime of inflation targeting.

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EXCHANGE RATE - REGIMES AND POLICIES

Зборник радова Економског факултета у Источном Сарајеву ◽

10.7251/zrefis1409097l ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 1 (9) ◽

pp. 97

Author(s):

Novak Lučić

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Foreign Exchange ◽

Foreign Exchange Market ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

Balance Of Payments ◽

Direct Impact ◽

Exchange Market ◽

Equilibrium Exchange Rate ◽

Equilibrium Exchange ◽

Rate Policy

Exchange rate of one currency is theprice of the currency expressed in units of othercurrency. It is formed by the interaction of supply anddemand in the foreign exchange market. Given thatthe exchange rate has a direct impact on thecompetitiveness of a country in terms of features of itsexports and imports, in its balance of payments, andindirectly the overall economic and socialdevelopment, in addition to acting in marketprinciples - supply and demand in the formation ofthe equilibrium exchange rate, exchange rate issubject to different, stronger or weaker, more or less,forms of intervention. In the search for the optimalexchange rate policy of the national currency, themonetary authorities are positioned between the twoextremes - the complete abandonment of theexchange rate to the market laws of supply anddemand, or fixing the exchange rate for any of theselected anchor currency.

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Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Devaluation: Risks of the Russian Ruble and Other Currencies

Issues of Risk Analysis ◽

10.32686/1812-5220-2019-16-4-76-81 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 16 (4) ◽

pp. 76-81

Author(s):

V. Yu. Didenko ◽

N. I. Morozko ◽

N. I. Morozko

Keyword(s):

Monetary Policy ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Foreign Exchange ◽

Current Account ◽

Foreign Exchange Market ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Balance Of Payments ◽

Exchange Market ◽

The Exchange Rate

Subject and topic. Currently, the decrease in payments on foreign debts and a decrease in imports have an impact on the demand in the foreign exchange market. As a result, a situation has arisen due to the actions of the Bank of Russia, caused by threats of sanctions that provoked the absence of excessive demand and adequate supply in the foreign exchange market and led to a decrease in ruble exchange rate fl uctuations due to oil price movements.The subject of research is to determine the role of oil prices in the formation of monetary policy, which can be a key driver of economic growth.Objective. Identifi cation of exchange rate management practices with the search for the relationship between the current account of the balance of payments and the volatility of the national currency exchange rate.Research methods, the main provisions. Methods used grouping, comparing and summarizing economic indicators to study the characteristics and trends of the monetary policy of China, South Korea and Latin American countries.A critical analysis of the various points of view of leading scientists on the negative or positive impact of the exchange rate on the development of the economy was carried out. At the same time, it is interesting to analyze the views of individual economists that the dependence of the ruble exchange rate on oil prices has recently largely decreased.The main results of the study. Determination of the theoretical relationship between the price of oil and the exchange rate, based on the shock component, either in oil prices or in the exchange rate, with testing the response of the economic variable to this shock.Main conclusions. It was concluded that in the conditions of the economic situation of the last decade, the main problem of export-oriented and import-oriented countries is the imbalance of the current account of the balance of payments, as well as its relationship, primarily with the prices of export goods.

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REGULATORS AND LEVERS OF THE ANTI-CRISIS POLICY OF STATE IN THE FIELD OF MONETARY AND ECONOMIC RELATIONS

PROBLEMS OF SYSTEMIC APPROACH IN THE ECONOMY ◽

10.32782/2520-2200/2021-4-3 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Tetiana Kosova ◽

Olga Tereshchenko

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Foreign Exchange ◽

Currency Crises ◽

Foreign Exchange Market ◽

Currency Crisis ◽

Balance Of Payments ◽

National Currency ◽

Exchange Market ◽

The Third ◽

Positive Balance

In the article the definition of the currency crisis as a sharp violation of exchange parity, devaluation of the national currency of a country, the single currency of the economic union, the world reserve currency, etc. for a short period after a period of relatively long exchange rate stability. It is established that the source of the currency crisis can be the banking system, the budget sphere, domestic and foreign public debt, balance of payments, and the channels of influence of factors can be isolated or combined (double, triple, etc.). The main goal of anti-crisis policy in the field of monetary and financial relations is early warning of the crisis. It is shown that the choice of regulators and levers should depend on the model of crisis phenomena in the foreign exchange market, the diversity of which is reduced to the dominance of certain factors: economic, non-economic (military-political, behavioral, psychological), external influence. The retrospectives of four currency crises that have taken place since Ukraine's independence have been assessed, their models have been diagnosed: 1992-1993 – the first, 1998-1999 – mixed (synthesis of the first and third models), 2008-2009 – the third, 2014-2015 – the second. It is statistically shown that the first crisis was the most acute, the third crisis was the mildest. Regulators and levers of anti-crisis policy are defined as a system of interconnected mechanisms of state and market regulation aimed at ensuring the stability of the national currency, its external and internal convertibility, positive balance of payments, growth of official foreign exchange reserves, stimulating the country's export potential. It is proved that the anti-crisis policy of the state in the field of monetary and financial relations should strengthen and complement the operation of market mechanisms with priority given to economic regulators and levers over administrative ones. The main objects of the anti-crisis mechanism in the foreign exchange market, which are implemented in the real and financial sectors of the national economy and are designed to eliminate currency and macroeconomic imbalances, the balance of payments, harmonize monetary and exchange rate policies of the NBU.

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