scholarly journals A Predictive Framework for Electricity Consumption

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-35
Author(s):  
Patrick Ozoh ◽  
Shapiee Abd-Rahman ◽  
Jane Labadin
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Adaptation Algorithm ◽  
Multiple Variables ◽  
Artificial Neural

This study investigates the performance of regression model, Kalman filter adaptation algorithm and artificial neural network to assess their qualities for predictions. It develops predictive algorithms based on price, temperature and humidity as multiple variables affecting time-varying aspect of electricity consumption. In order to meet energy demand through the use of electricity as an energy source for daily activities in buildings such as air conditioning, lighting, computers and cooking stoves., adequate allocation of energy resources and planning should be done, including predicting for electricity consumption. The process involves collecting data from the power grid of Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology building, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak. The forecasting techniques were tested on the data collected, and the dataset consists of electricity consumption readings, with electricity price, humidity and temperature included in the forecasting model. The performances of regression model, artificial neural network and Kalman algorithm were tested using statistical evaluation parameters, root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE); while the parameter, standard deviation, was used to check the validity of models. This study identified Kalman algorithm as the most effective method of predicting consumption data compared to regression model, and artificial neural network.

scholarly journals Prediction of rubber vulcanization using an artificial neural network

2021 ◽  
Vol 75 (5) ◽  
pp. 277-283
Author(s):  
Jelena Lubura ◽  
Predrag Kojic ◽  
Jelena Pavlicevic ◽  
Bojana Ikonic ◽  
Radovan Omorjan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Dense Layer ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Different Temperatures ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Determination of rubber rheological properties is indispensable in order to conduct efficient vulcanization process in rubber industry. The main goal of this study was development of an advanced artificial neural network (ANN) for quick and accurate vulcanization data prediction of commercially available rubber gum for tire production. The ANN was developed by using the platform for large-scale machine learning TensorFlow with the Sequential Keras-Dense layer model, in a Python framework. The ANN was trained and validated on previously determined experimental data of torque on time at five different temperatures, in the range from 140 to 180 oC, with a step of 10 oC. The activation functions, ReLU, Sigmoid and Softplus, were used to minimize error, where the ANN model with Softplus showed the most accurate predictions. Numbers of neurons and layers were varied, where the ANN with two layers and 20 neurons in each layer showed the most valid results. The proposed ANN was trained at temperatures of 140, 160 and 180 oC and used to predict the torque dependence on time for two test temperatures (150 and 170 oC). The obtained solutions were confirmed as accurate predictions, showing the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean squared error (MSE) values were less than 1.99 % and 0.032 dN2 m2, respectively.

scholarly journals Application of artificial neural network to predict amount of carried weight of cargo train in rail transportation system

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 480
Author(s):  
Siti Nasuha Zubir ◽  
S. Sarifah Radiah Shariff ◽  
Siti Meriam Zahari
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Training Algorithms ◽  
Training Algorithm ◽  
Error Measures ◽  
Train Services ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

<span lang="EN-US">Derailments of cargo have frequently occurred in Malaysian train services during the last decade. Many factors contribute to this incident, especially its total amount of carried weight. It is found that severe derailments cause damage to both lives and properties every year. If the amount of carried weight of cargo train could be accurately forecasted in advance, then its detrimental effect could be greatly minimized. This paper presents the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict the amount of carried weight of cargo train, with KTMB used as the study case. As there are many types of cargo being carried by KTMB, this study focuses only on cement that being carried in twelve (12) different routes. In this study, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has been incorporated for developing a predictive model with three (3) different training algorithms, Levenberg-Marquardt (LM), Quick Propagation (QP) and Conjugate Gradient Descent (CGD). The best training algorithm is selected to predict the amount of carried weight by comparing the error measures of all the training algorithm which are Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The obtained results indicated that the ANN technique is suitable for predicting the amount of carried weight.</span>

scholarly journals Modeling of Building Energy Consumption by Integrating Regression Analysis and Artificial Neural Network with Data Classification

Buildings ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 198
Author(s):  
Iffat Ridwana ◽  
Nabil Nassif ◽  
Wonchang Choi
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Data Classification ◽  
Building Energy ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Conventional Regression

With the constant expansion of the building sector as a major energy consumer in the modern world, the significance of energy-efficient building systems cannot be more emphasized. Most of the buildings are now equipped with an electric dashboard to record consumption data which presents a significant scope of research by utilizing those data in energy modeling. This paper investigates conventional regression modeling in building energy estimation and proposes three models with data classifications to improve their performance. The proposed models are regression models and an artificial neural network model with data classification for predicting hourly or sub-hourly energy usage in four different buildings. Energy data is collected from a building energy simulation program and existing buildings to develop the models for detailed analysis. Data classification is recommended according to the system operating schedules of the buildings and models are tested for their performance in capturing the data trends resulting from those schedules. Proposed regression models and an ANN model with the recommended classification show very accurate results in estimating energy demand compared to conventional regression models. Correlation coefficient and root mean squared error values improve noticeably for the proposed models and they can potentially be utilized for energy conservation purposes and energy savings in the buildings.

scholarly journals Artificial Neural Network Study to Predict the Amount of Carried Weight by Rail Transportation System

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 17-23
Author(s):  
Nur Syuhada Muhammat Pazil ◽  
Siti Nor Nadrah Muhamad ◽  
Hanis Syazana Nor Azahar
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Kuala Lumpur ◽  
Error Measures ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Quasi Newton

Keretapi Tanah Melayu Berhad (KTMB) is the main rail operator in Peninsular Malaysia. KTMB provides cargo services which are safe, efficient and trustworthy. KTMB also has services that are connected to the port and inland port in Peninsular Malaysia. However, they remove suffered three major derailments in 2017. On November 23, a cargo train had an accident when 12 cargo trains traveling southward slipped between National Bank Station and Kuala Lumpur Station due to heavy weight and oversized loads carried by the cargo train. This study is conducted to predict the amount of carried weight of cargo by KTMB using Artificial Neural Network model. Datasets used in this study was taken from Department of Statistics Malaysia Official Portal from year 2001 to 2016. There are three algorithms chosen in this study which are Conjugate Gradient Descent (CGD), Quasi-Newton (QN) and Lavenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm. The best algorithm is selected to predict the amount of carried weight by comparing the value of error measures of the three algorithms which are Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Therefore, CGD is the best algorithm that produces smallest error of RMSE and MAPE. By using CGD algorithm, the results show the forecast value of carried weight for five years ahead which is from year 2017 until 2021 is decrease. 

scholarly journals A Hybrid Model of Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm in Forecasting Gold Price

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Azme Bin Khamis ◽  
Phang Hou Yee
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Artificial Neural

The goal of this study is to compare the forecasting performance of classical artificial neural network and the hybrid model of artificial neural network and genetic algorithm. The time series data used is the monthly gold price per troy ounce in USD from year 1987 to 2016. A conventional artificial neural network trained by back propagation algorithm and the hybrid forecasting model of artificial neural network and genetic algorithms are proposed.  Genetic algorithm is used to optimize the of artificial neural network neurons. Three forecasting accuracy measures which are mean absolute error, root mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error are used to compare the accuracy of artificial neural network forecasting and hybrid of artificial neural network and genetic algorithm forecasting model. Fitness of the model is compared by using coefficient of determination. The hybrid model of artificial neural network is suggested to be used as it is outperformed the classical artificial neural network in the sense of forecasting accuracy because its coefficient of determination is higher than conventional artificial neural network by 1.14%. The hybrid model of artificial neural network and genetic algorithms has better forecasting accuracy as the mean absolute error, root mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error is lower than the artificial neural network forecasting model.

scholarly journals Artificial neural network, predictor variables and sensitivity threshold for DNA methylation-based age prediction using blood samples

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhonghui Thong ◽  
Jolena Ying Ying Tan ◽  
Eileen Shuzhen Loo ◽  
Yu Wei Phua ◽  
Xavier Liang Shun Chan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Sensitivity Threshold ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Blood Samples ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Age Prediction

AbstractRegression models are often used to predict age of an individual based on methylation patterns. Artificial neural network (ANN) however was recently shown to be more accurate for age prediction. Additionally, the impact of ethnicity and sex on our previous regression model have not been studied. Furthermore, there is currently no age prediction study investigating the lower limit of input DNA at the bisulfite treatment stage prior to pyrosequencing. Herein, we evaluated both regression and ANN models, and the impact of ethnicity and sex on age prediction for 333 local blood samples using three loci on the pyrosequencing platform. Subsequently, we trained a one locus-based ANN model to reduce the amount of DNA used. We demonstrated that the ANN model has a higher accuracy of age prediction than the regression model. Additionally, we showed that ethnicity did not affect age prediction among local Chinese, Malays and Indians. Although the predicted age of males were marginally overestimated, sex did not impact the accuracy of age prediction. Lastly, we present a one locus, dual CpG model using 25 ng of input DNA that is sufficient for forensic age prediction. In conclusion, the two ANN models validated would be useful for age prediction to provide forensic intelligence leads.

The Artificial Neural Network and Regression Analysis Approach to Prediction of the Fiber Diameter of Spunbonding Fabrics

2010 ◽  
Vol 33 ◽  
pp. 74-78
Author(s):  
B. Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Process Parameters ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Model ◽  
Fiber Diameter ◽  
Statistical Regression ◽  
Artificial Neural

In this work, the artificial neural network model and statistical regression model are established and utilized for predicting the fiber diameter of spunbonding nonwovens from the process parameters. The artificial neural network model has good approximation capability and fast convergence rate, which is used in this research. The results show the artificial neural network model can provide quantitative predictions of fiber diameter and yield more accurate and stable predictions than the statistical regression model, which reveals that the artificial neural network model is based on the inherent principles, and it can yield reasonably good prediction results and provide insight into the relationship between process parameters and fiber diameter.

scholarly journals Predicting Pressure Sensitivity to Luminophore Content and Paint Thickness of Pressure-Sensitive Paint Using Artificial Neural Network

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (15) ◽  
pp. 5188
Author(s):  
Mitsugu Hasegawa ◽  
Daiki Kurihara ◽  
Yasuhiro Egami ◽  
Hirotaka Sakaue ◽  
Aleksandar Jemcov
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Data Augmentation ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Pressure Sensitivity ◽  
Pressure Sensitive Paint ◽  
Pressure Sensitive ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Paint Thickness ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

An artificial neural network (ANN) was constructed and trained for predicting pressure sensitivity using an experimental dataset consisting of luminophore content and paint thickness as chemical and physical inputs. A data augmentation technique was used to increase the number of data points based on the limited experimental observations. The prediction accuracy of the trained ANN was evaluated by using a metric, mean absolute percentage error. The ANN predicted pressure sensitivity to luminophore content and to paint thickness, within confidence intervals based on experimental errors. The present approach of applying ANN and the data augmentation has the potential to predict pressure-sensitive paint (PSP) characterizations that improve the performance of PSP for global surface pressure measurements.

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