scholarly journals Forecasting Trip Generation For High Density Residential Zones of Akure, Nigeria: Comparability of Artificial Neural Network And Regression Models

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 2
Author(s):  
J.E. Etu ◽  
O. J. Oyedepo
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Model ◽  
High Density ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Trip Generation ◽  
Home Based ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Household Travel

Evidence from literature has shown the absence of the use of Artificial Neural Network techniques in formulating trip generation forecasts in Nigeria, rather the practice has consisted more on use of regression techniques. Therefore, in this study, the accuracy of Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) and Multiple Linear Regression model (MLR) in formulating home-based trips generation forecasts was assessed. Datasets for the study were acquired from a household travel survey in the high density zones of Akure, Nigeria and were analysed using SPSS 22 statistical software. Results of data analysis showed that the RBFNN model with higher Coefficient of Determination (R2) value of 0.913 and lower Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.421 performed better than the MLR with lower R2 value of 0.552 and higher MAPE of 0.810 in predicting the number of home-based trips generated in the study area. The study demonstrated the higher accuracy of the RBFNN in producing trip generation forecasts in the study area and is consequently recommended for researchers in executing such forecasts.

scholarly journals An artificial neural network-based prediction model for utilization of coal ash in production of fired clay bricks: A review

2021 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-53
Author(s):  
Milica Vidak-Vasic ◽  
Lato Pezo ◽  
Vivek Gupta ◽  
Sandeep Chaudhary ◽  
Zagorka Radojevic
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Coal Ash ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Mean Bias Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Bias Error ◽  
Clay Bricks ◽  
Coal Ashes ◽  
Artificial Neural

This study analyzed the last 20 years` data available on power plant coal ashes used in clay brick production. The statistical analysis has been carried out for a total of 302 cases based on the relevant parameters reported in the literature. The chemical composition of the clays and coal ashes, percentage incorporation and maximum particle size of ash, size of fired samples, peak firing temperature, and the corresponding soaking time were selected as inputs for modeling. The product characteristics i.e. open porosity, water absorption, and compressive strength was taken as output parameters. An artificial neural network model has been developed and showed a satisfactory fit to experimental data and predicted the observed output variables with the overall coefficient of determination (r2) of 0.972 during the training period. Besides, the reduced chi-square, mean bias error, root mean square error, and mean percentage error were utilized to check the correctness of the obtained model, which proved the network generalization capability. The sensitivity analysis of the model suggested that the quantity of Na2O coming from brick clays, the percentages of SiO2 and K2O coming from ashes, and MgO coming from clays were the most influential parameters in descending order for the ash-clay composite bricks` quality, mostly owing to the influence of fluxes during firing.

scholarly journals The Use of an Artificial Neural Network for Predicting the Gloss of Thermally Densified Wood Veneers

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Şükrü Özşahin ◽  
Hilal Singer
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Densified Wood ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Angle Of Incidence ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to predict the gloss of thermally densified wood veneers. A custom application created with MATLAB codes was employed for the development of the multilayer feed-forward ANN model. The wood species, temperature, pressure, measurement direction, and angle of incidence were considered as the model inputs, while the gloss was the output of the ANN model. Model performance was evaluated by using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the root mean square error (RMSE), and the coefficient of determination (R²). It was observed that the ANN model yielded very satisfactory results with acceptable deviations. The MAPE, RMSE, and R2 values of the testing period of the ANN model were found as 8.556%, 1.245, and 0.9814, respectively. Consequently, this study could be useful for the wood industry to predict the gloss with less number of tiring experimental activities.

scholarly journals A Hybrid Model of Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm in Forecasting Gold Price

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Azme Bin Khamis ◽  
Phang Hou Yee
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Artificial Neural

The goal of this study is to compare the forecasting performance of classical artificial neural network and the hybrid model of artificial neural network and genetic algorithm. The time series data used is the monthly gold price per troy ounce in USD from year 1987 to 2016. A conventional artificial neural network trained by back propagation algorithm and the hybrid forecasting model of artificial neural network and genetic algorithms are proposed.  Genetic algorithm is used to optimize the of artificial neural network neurons. Three forecasting accuracy measures which are mean absolute error, root mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error are used to compare the accuracy of artificial neural network forecasting and hybrid of artificial neural network and genetic algorithm forecasting model. Fitness of the model is compared by using coefficient of determination. The hybrid model of artificial neural network is suggested to be used as it is outperformed the classical artificial neural network in the sense of forecasting accuracy because its coefficient of determination is higher than conventional artificial neural network by 1.14%. The hybrid model of artificial neural network and genetic algorithms has better forecasting accuracy as the mean absolute error, root mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error is lower than the artificial neural network forecasting model.

scholarly journals Application of artificial neural network (ANN-MLP) for the prediction of fouling resistance in heat exchanger to MgO-water and CuO-water nanofluids

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Benyekhlef ◽  
Brahim Mohammedi ◽  
Djamel Hassani ◽  
Salah Hanini
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Experimental Data ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Heat Exchanger ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Inlet Temperature ◽  
Fouling Resistance ◽  
Data Points ◽  
Artificial Neural

Abstract In this work an artificial neural network model was developed with the aim of predicting fouling resistance for heat exchanger, the network was designed and trained by means of 375 experimental data points that were selected from the literature. This data points contains 6 inputs, including time, volumetric concentration, heat flux, mass flow rate, inlet temperature, thermal conductivity and fouling resistance as an output. The experimental data are used for training, testing and validation the ANN using multiple layer perceptron (MLP). The comparison of statistical criteria of different networks shows that the optimal structure for predicting the fouling resistance of the nanofluid is the MLP network with 20 hidden neurons, which has been trained with Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) algorithm. The accuracy of the model was assessed based on three known statistical metrics including mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The obtained model was found with the performance of {MSE = 6.5377 × 10−4, MAPE = 2.40% and R2 = 0.99756} for the training stage, {MSE = 3.9629 × 10−4, MAPE = 1.8922% and R2 = 0.99835} for the test stage and {MSE = 5.8303 × 10−4, MAPE = 2.57% and R2 = 0.99812} for the validation stage. In order to control the fouling procedure, and after conducting a sensitivity analysis, it found that all input variables have strong effect on the estimation of the fouling resistance.

scholarly journals Predicting Pressure Sensitivity to Luminophore Content and Paint Thickness of Pressure-Sensitive Paint Using Artificial Neural Network

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (15) ◽  
pp. 5188
Author(s):  
Mitsugu Hasegawa ◽  
Daiki Kurihara ◽  
Yasuhiro Egami ◽  
Hirotaka Sakaue ◽  
Aleksandar Jemcov
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Data Augmentation ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Pressure Sensitivity ◽  
Pressure Sensitive Paint ◽  
Pressure Sensitive ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Paint Thickness ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

An artificial neural network (ANN) was constructed and trained for predicting pressure sensitivity using an experimental dataset consisting of luminophore content and paint thickness as chemical and physical inputs. A data augmentation technique was used to increase the number of data points based on the limited experimental observations. The prediction accuracy of the trained ANN was evaluated by using a metric, mean absolute percentage error. The ANN predicted pressure sensitivity to luminophore content and to paint thickness, within confidence intervals based on experimental errors. The present approach of applying ANN and the data augmentation has the potential to predict pressure-sensitive paint (PSP) characterizations that improve the performance of PSP for global surface pressure measurements.

scholarly journals Data Preprocessing for Load Forecasting using Artificial Neural Network

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael S. F. Ferraz ◽  
Renato S. F. Ferraz ◽  
Lucas F. S. Azeredo ◽  
Benemar A. de Souza
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Power System ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Energy Resource ◽  
Data Preprocessing ◽  
Electric Power System ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Gradual Change ◽  
Artificial Neural

An accurate demand forecasting is essential for planning the electric dispatch in power system, contributing financially to electricity companies and helping in the security and continuity of electricity supply. In addition, it is evident that the distributed energy resource integration in the electric power system has been increasing recently, mostly from the photovoltaic generation, resulting in a gradual change of the load curve profile. Therefore, the 24 hours ahead prediction of the electrical demand of Campina Grande, Brazil, was realized from artificial neural network with a focus on the data preprocessing. Thus, the time series variations, such as hourly, diary and seasonal, were reduced in order to obtain a better demand prediction. Finally, it was compared the results between the forecasting with the preprocessing application and the prediction without the  preprocessing stage. Based on the results, the first methodology presented lower mean absolute percentage error with 7.95% against 10.33% of the second one.

Predicting the ground vibration induced by mine blasting using imperialist competitive algorithm

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 1774-1787 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katayoun Behzadafshar ◽  
Fahimeh Mohebbi ◽  
Mehran Soltani Tehrani ◽  
Mahdi Hasanipanah ◽  
Omid Tabrizi
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Ground Vibration ◽  
Imperialist Competitive Algorithm ◽  
Empirical Models ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Competitive Algorithm ◽  
Spacing Ratio ◽  
Artificial Neural

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to propose three imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA)-based models for predicting the blast-induced ground vibrations in Shur River dam region, Iran.Design/methodology/approachFor this aim, 76 data sets were used to establish the ICA-linear, ICA-power and ICA-quadratic models. For comparison aims, artificial neural network and empirical models were also developed. Burden to spacing ratio, distance between shot points and installed seismograph, stemming, powder factor and max charge per delay were used as the models’ input, and the peak particle velocity (PPV) parameter was used as the models’ output.FindingsAfter modeling, the various statistical evaluation criteria such as coefficient of determination (R2) were applied to choose the most precise model in predicting the PPV. The results indicate the ICA-based models proposed in the present study were more acceptable and reliable than the artificial neural network and empirical models. Moreover, ICA linear model with theR2 of 0.939 was the most precise model for predicting the PPV in the present study.Originality/valueIn the present paper, the authors have proposed three novel prediction methods based on ICA to predict the PPV. In the next step, we compared the performance of the proposed ICA-based models with the artificial neural network and empirical models. The results indicated that the ICA-based models proposed in the present paper were superior in terms of high accuracy and have the capacity to generalize.

scholarly journals A New Model for Predicting Rate of Penetration Using an Artificial Neural Network

Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 2058 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salaheldin Elkatatny ◽  
Ahmed Al-AbdulJabbar ◽  
Khaled Abdelgawad
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Mutual Effect ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Drilling Process ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Individual Parameter ◽  
Rate Of Penetration ◽  
Artificial Neural

The drilling rate of penetration (ROP) is defined as the speed of drilling through rock under the bit. ROP is affected by different interconnected factors, which makes it very difficult to infer the mutual effect of each individual parameter. A robust ROP is required to understand the complexity of the drilling process. Therefore, an artificial neural network (ANN) is used to predict ROP and capture the effect of the changes in the drilling parameters. Field data (4525 points) from three vertical onshore wells drilled in the same formation using the same conventional bottom hole assembly were used to train, test, and validate the ANN model. Data from Well A (1528 points) were utilized to train and test the model with a 70/30 data ratio. Data from Well B and Well C were used to test the model. An empirical equation was derived based on the weights and biases of the optimized ANN model and compared with four ROP models using the data set of Well C. The developed ANN model accurately predicted the ROP with a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.94 and an average absolute percentage error (AAPE) of 8.6%. The developed ANN model outperformed four existing models with the lowest AAPE and highest R value.

scholarly journals Prediction of Density and Speed of Sound of Binary Ionic Liquid and Ketone Mixtures Using Artificial Neural Network

2019 ◽  
Vol 120 ◽  
pp. 01003
Author(s):  
Redden Rose Rivera ◽  
Allan Soriano
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Ionic Liquid ◽  
Ionic Liquids ◽  
Speed Of Sound ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Green Energy ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Average Percentage ◽  
Artificial Neural

The applications of ionic liquids solve a lot of major problems regarding green energy production and environment. Ionic liquids are solvents used as alternative to unfriendly traditional and hazardous solvents which reduces the negative impact to environment to a great extent. This study produced models to predict two of the basic physical properties of binary ionic liquid and ketone mixtures: density and speed of sound. The artificial neural network algorithm was used to predict these properties by varying the temperature, mole fraction, atom count in cation, methyl group count in cation, atom count in anion, hydrogen atom count in anion of ionic liquid and atom count in ketone. Total experimental data points of 2517 for density and 947 for speed of sound were used to train the algorithm and to test the network obtained. The optimum neural network structure determined for density and speed of sound of binary ionic liquid and ketone mixtures were 7-9-9-1 and 7-7-4-1 respectively; overall average percentage error of 2.45% and 2.17% respectively; and mean absolute error of 28.21 kg/m3 and 33.91 m/s respectively. The said algorithm was found applicable for the prediction of density and speed of sound of binary ionic liquid and ketone mixtures.

Univariate Artificial Neural Network in Forecasting Demand of Low Cost House in Petaling Jaya

2012 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norhisham Bakhary ◽  
Khairulzan Yahya ◽  
Chin Nam Ng
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Potential Applications ◽  
Low Cost Housing ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Kebelakangan ini ramai penyelidik mendapati ‘Artificial Neural Network’ (ANN) untuk digunakan dalam berbagai bidang kejuruteraan awam. Banyak aplikasi ANN dalam proses peramalan menghasilkan kejayaan. Kajian ini memfokuskan kepada penggunaan siri masa ‘Univariate Neural Network’ untuk meramalkan permintaan rumah kos rendah di daerah Petaling Jaya, Selangor. Dalam kajian ini, beberapa kes bagi sesi latihan dan ramalan telah dibuat untuk mendapatkan model terbaik bagi meramalkan permintaan rumah. Nilai RMSE yang paling rendah yang diperolehi bagi tahap validasi adalah 0.560 dan nilai MAPE yang diperolehi adalah 8.880%. Hasil kajian ini menunjukkan kaedah ini memberikan keputusan yang boleh diterima dalam peramalan permintaan rumah berdasarkan data masa lalu. Kata kunci: Univariate Neural Network, permintaan rumah kos rendah, RMSE, MAPE Recently researchers have found the potential applications of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in various fields in civil engineering. Many attempts to apply ANN as a forecasting tool has been successful. This paper highlighted the application of Time Series Univariate Neural Network in forecasting the demand of low cost house in Petaling Jaya district, Selangor, using historical data ranging from February 1996 to Appril 2000. Several cases of training and testing were conducted to obtain the best neural network model. The lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) obtained for validation step is 0.560 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is 8.880%. These results show that ANN is able to provide reliable result in term of forecasting the housing demand based on previous housing demand record. Key words: Time Series Univariate Neural Network, low cost housing demand, RMSE, MAPE

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