scholarly journals IS LITHUANIA READY FOR AN UNPREDICTABLE FUTURE?: THE EU AND NATO CASES

2019 ◽  
Vol 2(13)/2019 (2(13)/2019) ◽  
pp. 95-100
Author(s):  
Vadim VOLOVOJ
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Transatlantic Relations ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Power Balance ◽  
Fundamental Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Eu

Today’s world is in transition, and nobody can predict what the future power balance will look like. Transatlantic relations and the EU are in trouble. They may transform significantly, but it seems that many European countries are not ready for fundamental change. The United States of Europe or Europe of Nations – what should be the choice for Lithuania and what can it do in case of NATO disintegration? This article is speculative futurology, with the goal of preparing for the future

Balanced Budget Rules and Expenditure Limits: Lessons from the US and Australia and Implications for the EU

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 607-636
Author(s):  
Mark Humphery-Jenner
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Political Will ◽  
Constitutional Amendments ◽  
The Us ◽  
Balanced Budget ◽  
Tax And Expenditure Limits ◽  
Balanced Budget Requirements ◽  
The Eu

Governments periodically receive accusations of over-spending. These accusations are sometimes warranted. Some commentators propose that strict tax and expenditure limits (TELs) and/or balanced budget requirements (BBRs) may resolve excessive expenditure. Governments can implement TELs and BBRs through constitutional amendments, statutory schemes, or non-binding aspirational goals. They have been proposed as a remedy to allegations of over-spending in some European countries. However, it is not entirely clear if TELs or BBRs are effective or will resolve excess expenditure. I analyze TELs and BBRs as implemented in the United States and Australia. I argue that the Australian model of aspirational TELs and BBRs is beneficial if there is a political will to enforce them. However, if there is no such political will, then statutory (as opposed to constitutional) TELs and BBRs best strike a balance of flexibility and constraint.

Antinomies of Power and Law: A Comment on Robert Kagan

2003 ◽  
Vol 4 (9) ◽  
pp. 871-888
Author(s):  
Andreas Paulus
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Law ◽  
The United States ◽  
Transatlantic Relations ◽  
The Other ◽  
International Affairs ◽  
Sovereign Equality ◽  
Political Perspective ◽  
The Future ◽  
Analytical Tools

Robert Kagan's article and book on the future of transatlantic relations have gained much prominence in the debate on the reasons for and impact of the transatlantic rift on the war against Iraq. However, and regrettably, Kagan's work confirms rather than challenges the prejudices and stereotypes of both sides. After putting Kagan's approach in a political perspective, I intend to show that the antinomies used by Kagan and other participants in the debate, such as might and right, unilateralism and multilateralism, prevention and repression, hegemony and sovereign equality, democratic imperialism and pluralism, constitute useful analytical tools, but do not in any way capture the divergence of values and interests between the United States and Europe. However, the result of such an analysis does not lead to the adoption of one or the other extreme, but to the realization that international law occupies the space between them, allowing for the permanent re-negotiation of the place of “Mars” and “Venus” in international affairs.

scholarly journals The World in the XXI Century: the Dilemmas of Polarity

2021 ◽  
Vol 105 (5) ◽  
pp. 5-18
Author(s):  
Mikhail Nosov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Politics ◽  
Economic Competition ◽  
Interstate Relations ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
The Eu

COVID-19 pandemic started one century after Spanish flu epidemic that killed about 40 million people. It ended as unexpectedly as it began, and was followed by the Paris Conference of 1919, which gave start to the Versailles system, planned as a new system of eternal peace, but collapsed 20 years later. The same happened with the Yalta system at the end of XX centure. Today, the configuration of the world is in the process of changes. The USSR disappeared from the political map of the world, and new world centers appeared with different views on global politics. The interests of the United States, Russia, China, and EU-27 do not coincide, and often contradict each other. Today, with a certain degree of probability, one can speak of the formation of a "new bipolarity", where the United States? NATO and the EU enter into an economic, political and potentially a military confrontation with China and Russia. The future of this system will largely depend on both the outcome of economic competition between the West and China and the level of development of relations between China and Russia. The current pandemic, let's hope, will also end someday, and humanity will be able to create a system of bipolar or multipolar interstate relations that will reliably protect the world from epidemics and wars. This article examines the prospects for the formation of a multipolar world and the future role of Russia

scholarly journals D. Trump as a Factor in the Political Demarcation in Europe

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 76-83
Author(s):  
Pavel Ivanov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
European Countries ◽  
The Political ◽  
White House ◽  
Political Processes ◽  
The Us ◽  
Political Differences ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Eu

The article analyzes the role of the American leader as an indicator of internal political contradictions in European society. The subject of the research is the socio-political differences in Europe in the context of attitudes towards the political course and personality of US President D. Trump. The purpose of the study is to identify the main political forces that approve and share D. Trump's policies in the EU countries, the reasons for support, and efforts to advance their positions. The US initiatives to change the European political landscape are disclosed. The reasons for the growth of support for the US President and the transformation of attitudes towards him in European countries are revealed. The author reveals the conflict potential of socio-political challenges and the sharpness of disagreements regarding the policy of the White House. Conclusions are drawn about the similarity of the socio-political delimitation in European countries and the United States, a high level of D. Trump's influence on the internal political processes in the EU is noted. The author came to the conclusion about the strengthening of support for the American president, the growing popularity of the conservative parties of the «political alternative» and the deepening of the internal political division, both in Europe and in the United States.

FRG and Biden's Transatlantic Strategy: Unsolved Problems and New Challenges

2021 ◽  
Vol 65 (9) ◽  
pp. 56-68
Author(s):  
A. Kokeev
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Transatlantic Relations ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Nord Stream ◽  
In The Beginning ◽  
Strategic Autonomy ◽  
The Eu

This article addresses the most significant changes in German-American relations since the election of J. Biden; unveils the main factors influencing Berlin’s transatlantic policy in relations with Russia and China; analyzes approaches to the climate agenda and problems associated with the fulfillment of Germany’s allied obligations in NATO; reveals new trends in Germany’s approach to the issue of strategic autonomy of the EU; investigates the discrepancies on security issues between the main German parties ahead of the parliamentary elections in September 2021. The first steps of the Biden administration to normalize the transatlantic ties undermined by Trump (the return of the United States to participation in international negotiations and organizations) were seen in Berlin as evidence of significant changes in Washington’s positions on international problems of vital importance to Germany. At the same time, Berlin has no illusion that with the arrival of Biden, transatlantic relations will once again be the same as they were before Trump’s presidency. The most important stumbling block in the beginning process of resetting the transatlantic relations was the set of problems associated with the completion of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline construction. It is clear that Biden is just as harshly rejecting this project as his predecessor did, and will continue to obstruct its commissioning. After the elections to the Bundestag in September 2021, the internal political situation in Germany may change significantly. In any case, the Nord Stream 2 issue will remain a subject of disputes and serious disagreements between Germany, the USA, the EU and Russia for a long time. In Germany it is assumed that in the coming decades, the transatlantic agenda will be largely determined by the growing influence and policy of China, and the relationship between the United States and the EU with China will affect not only the economic interests of the FRG, but also the sphere of its security. The climate agenda today remains one of the few areas where it is possible not only to revive the transatlantic interaction, but also to intensify cooperation between the United States, the EU, China and Russia with an eye to interaction in solving other problems, not necessarily related to the climate agenda. The most important U.S. demand for Germany remains an increase in its material and financial contribution to NATO. Berlin’s readiness to meet these requirements has increased significantly. However, the thesis that the Europeans are faced with a choice – a course towards strategic autonomy or restoration of close ties with Washington and reliance on the United States and NATO – seems simplified. Representatives of all German parties are unanimous in the opinion that the renewal of the transatlantic partnership, which has begun under Biden, will be accompanied by a reduction in American commitments in Europe. Therefore, the EU will have to invest more in its own security and (in the longer term) strategic autonomy.

scholarly journals Donald Trump and European Allies: American Experts on the Future of NATO

2021 ◽  
Vol 101 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-15
Author(s):  
Yuri Goloub ◽  
◽  
Sergei Shenin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Defense Spending ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Pivot To Asia ◽  
Expert Community ◽  
Trump Administration ◽  
The Eu

The article analyzes the perception in the United States of the Trump administration‟s policy regarding NATO, the role of European countries, and the possibility of reforming the alliance. In the context of comparing this policy with the efforts of previous administrations, the authors study the attitudes of the most active political expert groups (liberals, realists, conservatives, and neoconservatives). It is concluded that the vast majority of the expert community considers it necessary to transform relations with the allies in the context of the ongoing bipartisan strategy of “pivot to Asia”, which implies an increase in European countries‟ defense spending with the EU being responsible for the security on the continent. All leading political expert groups agree that Trump‟s policy is generally consistent with this strategy, but its effectiveness is evaluated differently. It is assumed that the presidential victory of J. Biden will mean accelerating the implementation of the strategy of “pivot to Asia” and an autonomizaton of the defense potential of Europe.

scholarly journals European Union ‒ USA: On the Way to a “New Normality”

2020 ◽  
pp. 54-64
Author(s):  
Alexander Shumilin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
The United States ◽  
Transatlantic Relations ◽  
White House ◽  
Democratic Candidate ◽  
The Us ◽  
Nord Stream ◽  
The One ◽  
The Eu

The article analyzes the state of relations between transatlantic partners in the context of the presidential campaign in the United States, and also attempts to predict their development after November 2020.The presidency of D. Trump thoroughly shook the foundations of Euro-Atlantic solidarity. This applies to the parties' adherence to democratic values (Trump does not hide his sympathy for European leaders with a penchant for authoritarianism), and also applies to the interaction of the US and the EU in the trade, economic and military fields. While most European elites prefer the Democratic candidate Biden to win the presidential election, many analysts believe that his probable arrival in the White House will hardly change much. Transatlantic relations have already entered a stage of serious transformation. We can witness the emergence of a “new normal” in transatlantic relations, accepted by Brussels on the one hand and, apparently, by Biden's team, on the other. It is designed to reduce the previous scale of the EU's dependence on the United States in the field of defense, while fixing issues in relation where the approaches of the allies may not completely coincide or even differ significantly (a striking example is the fate of the “Nord Stream 2”). If implemented, this model of relations may prevent the emergence of new lines of tension between allies in the transatlantic partnership.

Concurrent trade defense investigations in the EU, the EU's new anti-subsidy practice against China, and the future of both

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 527-553 ◽  
Author(s):  
EDWIN VERMULST ◽  
BRIAN GATTA
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
European Commission ◽  
The United States ◽  
Key Points ◽  
The Future ◽  
Countervailing Duties ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Impact ◽  
The Eu ◽  
The Way

AbstractThe EU's decision to follow in the footsteps of the United States by breaking with its past practice of not applying countervailing duties against Chinese subsidies has left many wondering whether its first imposition of such duties on Coated Fine Paper from China was a watershed moment in EU trade defense history or merely an aberration, and if the former, just how profound of an impact these cases might have in the future. The article examines the key considerations which can aid one in determining the probability of the EU making an anti-subsidy practice against China routine, as well as the extent to which that practice could have a substantial practical impact on duty rates. This examination entails a look at the EU's historical use of the anti-subsidy instrument as a subordinate complement to the anti-dumping instrument, the impact of the EU's adoption of the ‘lesser duty rule’ on concurrent investigations, the way in which the expiration of a key provision in China's Protocol of Accession to the WTO will increase the desirability of the anti-subsidy instrument, as well as a look at how the European Commission might have fallen foul of the SCM Agreement with regard to a few key points.

Big tech scrutiny is taking different forms globally

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Transatlantic Relations ◽  
New Firms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Access Data ◽  
Us Technology ◽  
The Eu

Significance These concerns extend far beyond the United States, with several countries conducting similar investigations, albeit using different approaches. Impacts Big tech will exploit US ‘digital nationalism’ by arguing that new regulations would weaken US technology vis-à-vis its Chinese rivals. The EU will remain the global regulatory leader for the tech sector, even though this will damage transatlantic relations. Regulations that enable smaller and new firms to access data held by ‘big tech’ will be bitterly contested.

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