scholarly journals THE REVIEW OF UNCONVENTIONAL OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS AND FORECASTING

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (8) ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Jūratė Kuklytė
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Oil Shale ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
World Market ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Unconventional Oil ◽  
The Future ◽  
Oil Demand

Relevance of the research.Due to the effect of globalization and integration processes, it isimpossible toimagine a world without oil, as the oil price changes affect not only the financial markets butalso international trade circulation (Babatunde et al., 2013;Bastiani et al.,2016.; Caporale,et al.,2016.;Humphrey et al.,2016). Oil demand is growing rapidly.It is necessary formineral-based fuels, lubricants,plastics and various products of the chemical industry and other uses.Highconsumer demandled tosyntheticoil production, known as non-traditional oil productionmethods (Grushevenko, E., Grushevenko, D., 2012a).Unconventional oil is a synthetic energy product designed to convert one fuel source (fuel oil, shale, sandresin) to another, but it requires a tremendous amount of heat and fresh water, however, synthetic oil is muchcheaper to extract than conventional oil from deep sources in the context of limited resources.Furtherincreasing investor interest in oil production from unconventional reserves (oil, shale, sand) for a much lowerproduction costs and cost dynamics and higher return on investment projects in returnhas been reportedoccasionally. Since the period of 2006–2011breakeven price of oil, extracted from the shalehas changed, thecost has doubled–from 105 US dollars/barrel to 48 US dollars/barrel. During the same period, the cost-effectiveness of oil extracted from tar sand deposits price increased by 20% and accounted for around 73 USdollars/barrel. Based on the present state of international trade realities and trends itcan besuggestedthatfluctuations in oil prices is becoming a major factor in rising geopolitical tensions and fears of financial marketturmoil.Theresearch problemis posed by the question of what are the impactsof unconventional oil pricesand demand in the global oil market.Research subject:unconventional oil market and methods.Research purposewas toanalyseand define unconventional oil prices on the world market. Thefollowingobjectiveswere formulated to achieve the purpose:1. Formulatethe methodological research concept ofoil prices and demand.2. Overview of unconventional oil price assessments.Research methods.The article is prepared applying the methods of systemic analysis of academicliterature, logical analysis and synthesis oftheoretical research carried out. Unconventional oil price changesand methodswerereviewed according to the basis of the last decadeforeignstudies published in EBSCOHostEmerald and Science Direct databases.Outcomes and conclusions.A detailedglobal economic and energy trends analysis model and ERIRAS program, investigating oil demand over the long term, is the most useful research not only in the Russianenergy concern examination of the situation, but also in the global oil market forecasts.In order to more accurately predict the oil prices in the future, creating a probabilistic model, it isnecessary to monitor not only the monthly changes, and various events and draw attention to the weekly andmonthly events and their changes, because studies suggest that it is extremely important to the future priceprediction. Theestablishment ofthe correct price of oil patterns needsto be based on long-term data, as thismakes it much easier to provide for increases in prices and at the same time toavoid them.Unconventional oil production potential should unfold in the future perspective. Since thedevelopment of unconventional oil major impact on global trade flows, and declining US import demand andsubsequent stagnation of operating the oil demand for energy-efficient technology late entry, should increasecompetition among suppliers in the Asia-Pacific oil market. Such a concentration in one of the oil market inthe region may lead to significant differences between the different regions of theworld oil price fluctuations,but there is an even greater risk of oil producers and consumers.Review of the literature showed thatthereprevails statistically significant correlation between oil priceshocks and fluctuations in the stock market and theinverse relationship prevails in the Gulf countries. GulfCooperation Council countries, the stock market indices are closely correlated and have a common tendencyto gradually increase or decrease in different periods.Keywords:unconventional oil, pricefluctuation, oil world market.

scholarly journals THE REVIEW OF UNCONVENTIONAL OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS AND FORECASTING

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (8) ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Jūratė Kuklytė
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Oil Shale ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Fuel Oil ◽  
Synthetic Oil ◽  
Energy Product ◽  
Unconventional Oil ◽  
The Cost

Relevance of the research.Due to the effect of globalization and integration processes, it is impossible to imagine a world without oil, as the oil price changes affect not only the financial markets but also international trade circulation (Babatunde et al., 2013; Bastiani et al.,2016.; Caporale, et al.,2016.; Humphrey et al.,2016). Oil demand is growing rapidly. It is necessary for mineral-based fuels, lubricants, plastics and various products of the chemical industry and other uses. High consumer demandled to synthetic oil production, known as non-traditional oil production methods (Grushevenko, E., Grushevenko, D., 2012a). Unconventional oil is a synthetic energy product designed to convert one fuel source (fuel oil, shale, sandresin) to another, but it requires a tremendous amount of heat and fresh water, however, synthetic oil is much cheaper to extract than conventional oil from deep sources in the context of limited resources.Further increasing investor interest in oil production from unconventional reserves (oil, shale, sand) for a much lower production costs and cost dynamics and higher return on investment projects in return has been reported occasionally. Since the period of 2006–2011 break even price of oil, extracted from the shale has changed, the cost has doubled –from 105 US dollars/barrel to 48 US dollars/barrel. During the same period, the cost-effectiveness of oil extracted from tar sand deposits price increased by 20% and accounted for around 73 US dollars/barrel. Based on the present state of international trade realities and trends it can be suggested that fluctuations in oil prices is becoming a major factor in rising geopolitical tensions and fears of financial market turmoil.

scholarly journals Relationship between Oil Price and Macroeconomic Indicators in Russia

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-116
Author(s):  
A. Yu. Mikhailov ◽  
D. B. Burakov ◽  
V. Yu. Didenko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
World Market ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Exchange Rate

One of the most important external factors affecting the exchange rate of the US dollar to the Russian rouble has been the global oil price. Russia, whose economy is mainly associated with oil production, is one of the world’s largest oil suppliers. Therefore, the slightest fluctuations in oil prices can have a significant effect on its economy. The aim of the article is to study the relationship between macroeconomic parameters and oil prices. The objectives of the study are to identify factors having a long-term positive relationship with oil prices based on a mathematical approach, as well as to propose improvements for Russian macroeconomic indicators. The authors use modern mathematical methods of vector autoregression (VAR-model), the Granger method and the Dickey-Fuller test to study the long-term and shortterm relationships between the relevant time series for the period from 2014 to 2016. On this basis, it was calculated that a 1% increase in GDP leads to a strengthening of the national currency by 1.47%. This fact can be explained by the overall growth of the national economy. The Granger test results for the model show that global oil price (and Russian GDP) has the greatest impact on the exchange rate in the short term. The following actions are proposed for improving macroeconomic indicators: stabilisation of foreign economic policy; diversification of exports (although oil revenues can serve as a tool for improving the quality of Russian economic development and public life in general); development of the Russian ‘Urals’ benchmark and increasing its trading volumes on the world market; transition to rubles for settlements of Russian oil and gas; use of a ruble indicator (ruble barrel) of the ‘Urals’ oil price to support the development of Russia’s financial and economic policy.

scholarly journals Investigating the Behavior of Iran's Light Crude Oil Price in Short Term

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 45
Author(s):  
Seyed Abdollah Razavi ◽  
Mostafa Salimifar ◽  
Seyed Mahdi Mostafavi ◽  
Mortaza Baky Haskuee
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Light Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Oil Price Volatility

<p class="zhengwen">Investigate the causes of changing the oil price and modeling for predicting its volatility has always been one of the most important fields of Iran's economic literature study due to its position in Iran's economy. On the other hand, oil price volatility lead to the difficulty in the development programs. Empirical studies show that oil prices volatility are caused the structural bottlenecks (trade balance bottleneck, budget bottlenecks, etc.) in Iran's economic.<strong></strong></p>Understanding the mechanism of oil prices formation can reduce the risk of oil price volatility and its negative impacts on Iran's economy. With the development of oil bourse and oil futures market, oil market changed the crude oil price formation so that the cash flow between financial markets and oil market will deviant the crude oil price from its long term direction by changing in interest rate in short-term. In this paper, it is investigated the crude oil price deviation from its long-term direction with regard to the relationship between mentioned markets in short-term. For this purpose, Fisher price jump model and Frankel theory will be used for test by using daily time series data of 2005-13 about Iran's light crude oil in different areas (different markets), as well as multivariate GARCH technique method. Also, the results show that the pricing strategy is false signal in the use of Urals crude oil in the determining of crude oil price in the Mediterranean and North West Europe markets.

scholarly journals LONG-TERM OIL PRICE FORECASTS: A NEW PERSPECTIVE ON OIL AND THE MACROECONOMY

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (S3) ◽  
pp. 396-415 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Isaac Miller ◽  
Shawn Ni
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Asymmetric Responses ◽  
New Perspective

We examine how future real GDP growth relates to changes in the forecasted long-term average of discounted real oil prices and to changes in unanticipated fluctuations of real oil prices around the forecasts. Forecasts are conducted using a state-space oil market model, in which global real economic activity and real oil prices share a common stochastic trend. Changes in unanticipated fluctuations and changes in the forecasted long-term average of discounted real oil prices sum to real oil price changes. We find that these two components have distinctly different relationships with future real GDP growth. Positive and negative changes in the unanticipated fluctuations of real oil prices correlate with asymmetric responses of future real GDP growth. In comparison, changes in the forecasted long-term average are smaller in magnitude but are more influential on real GDP. Persistent upward revisions of forecasts in the 2000s had a substantial negative impact on real GDP growth, according to our estimates.

scholarly journals Shades between Black and Green Investment: Balance or Imbalance?

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 5024
Author(s):  
 Vítor Manuel de Sousa Gabriel ◽  
María Mar Miralles-Quirós ◽  
José Luis Miralles-Quirós
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Environmental Indices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Green Investment ◽  
Bounds Test

This paper analyses the links established between environmental indices and the oil price adopting a double perspective, long-term and short-term relationships. For that purpose, we employ the Bounds Test and bivariate conditional heteroscedasticity models. In the long run, the pattern of behaviour of environmental indices clearly differed from that of the oil prices, and it was not possible to identify cointegrating vectors. In the short-term, it was possible to conclude that, in contemporaneous terms, the variables studied tended to follow similar paths. When the lag of the oil price variable was considered, the impacts produced on the stock market sectors were partially of a negative nature, which allows us to suppose that this variable plays the role of a risk factor for environmental investment.

The Co-Movements Between Crude Oil Price and Internet Concerns: Causality Analysis in the Frequency Domain

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 224-239
Author(s):  
Jingjing Li ◽  
Ling Tang ◽  
Ling Li
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Test Method ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Low Frequencies ◽  
Oil Market

AbstractWith the boom of web technology, Internet concerns (IC) have become emerging drivers of crude oil price. This paper makes the first attempt to measure the frequency-varying co-movements between crude oil price and IC in five domains (i.e., fundamentals, supply-demand, crisis, war and weather) by using the frequency causality test method. Based on the monthly Brent spot price and search volumes (SVs) captured by Google Trends from January 2004 to September 2019, new and complementary insights regarding the co-movements between crude oil price and IC are obtained. 1) The co-movements between crude oil price and the IC of supply-demand, war, and weather support a neutral hypothesis at all frequencies due to the characteristics (low value or volatility) of these IC data. 2) There is a unidirectional causal relationship between crude oil price and the IC of fundamentals, running from the latter to the former at low frequencies (long-term). 3) There is a feedback relationship between crude oil price and the IC of crisis, with the IC of crisis driving crude oil price at medium and low frequencies (mid- and long-term) and crude oil price causing the IC of crisis to change permanently. The conclusions of this paper provide important implications for both oil market economists and investors.

scholarly journals Oil Price Forecasting Using a Time-Varying Approach

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1403
Author(s):  
Lu-Tao Zhao ◽  
Shun-Gang Wang ◽  
Zhi-Gang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Trend Prediction ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Polynomial Decomposition

The international crude oil market plays an important role in the global economy. This paper uses a variable time window and the polynomial decomposition method to define the trend term of time series and proposes a crude oil price forecasting method based on time-varying trend decomposition to describe the changes in trends over time and forecast crude oil prices. First, to characterize the time-varying characteristics of crude oil price trends, the basic concepts of post-position intervals, pre-position intervals and time-varying windows are defined. Second, a crude oil price series is decomposed with a time-varying window to determine the best fitting results. The parameter vector is used as a time-varying trend. Then, to quantitatively describe the continuation of the time-varying trend, the concept of the trend threshold is defined, and a corresponding algorithm for selecting the trend threshold is given. Finally, through the predicted trend thresholds, the historical reference data are selected, and the time-varying trend is combined to complete the crude oil price forecast. Through empirical research, it is found that the time-varying trend prediction model proposed in this paper achieves a better prediction than several common models. These results can provide suggestions and references for investors in the international crude oil market to understand the trends of oil prices and improve their investment decisions.

scholarly journals Does the Development of Bioenergy Exacerbate the Price Increase of Maize?

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 4845
Author(s):  
Zhengyi Dong
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Biomass Energy ◽  
Price Increase ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Ratio ◽  
Cost Channel ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between oil prices and food prices is complex, and maize is the most prominent example. Whether the development of bioenergy will exacerbate the price increase of maize caused by the increasing price of oil is a topic that is attracting great attention. This paper studies the relationship between oil prices and maize prices. First, the effects of the development of biomass energy on maize price in theory is analyzed by constructing a theoretical model that includes the effects of the cost channel and the demand channel, while setting the maize–oil price ratio as a trigger for the demand channel. Then, this paper empirically analyzes the price data. Both theoretical and empirical analyses show the effects of the demand channel in the long term; that is, the effect of the development of bioenergy on maize prices is weak, and maize prices did not increase sharply. The effect of the cost channel is the main cause of the increases in the price of maize and other foods.

Russia's Oil Prices: Moving toward the Market

1995 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 553-582
Author(s):  
Eugene M. Khartukov
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
World Market ◽  
Market Pricing ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Feasible Alternative ◽  
Oil And Oil Products

The painful perestroika of the ex-Soviet oil industry has been accompanied by an accelerated transition from the previous all-embracing and inflexible price control to actually decontrolled market pricing for both crude oil and oil products. The freed and soaring oil prices quickly hit equilibrium levels, led to sizeable contraction of inland oil demand, and generated two interrelated crises of nonpayment and overproduction. Rising transportation costs resulted in spontaneous “regionalization” of the national oil market and made oil product imports a feasible alternative to long-haul domestic supplies. While retail product prices became comparable with those in some Western countries, the backwardness of the country's refining industry and the resultant low gross product worth still are keeping domestic prices of crude oil substantially below world market parities. Though the rapid “globalization” of internal crude oil prices is on the Russian government's agenda, an immediate rise to world price levels is neither desirable nor actually possible.

scholarly journals Relationship between International Crude Oil Price and Indian Stock Market (NSE)

2011 ◽  
pp. 63-73
Author(s):  
Rajendra Mahunta
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
New Era ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

In this new era of economic growth, the exceptional increase in the crude oil prices is one of the significant developments that affect the global economy. Crude oil is an important raw material used for manufacturing sectors, so that increase in the price of oil is bound to warn the economy with inflationary inclination. The study examine the long-term relationships between CNX NIFTY FIFTY index of National Stock Exchange and crude price by using various econometric test. The surge in crude oil prices during recent years has generated a lot of interest in the relationship between oil price and equity markets. The study covers the period between 01.01.2010 and 31.12.2014 and was performed with data consisting of 1245 days. The empirical results show there was a cointegrated long-term relationship between CNX index and crude price. Granger causality results reveal that there is unidirectional causality exists and crude oil price causes NSE (CNX) but NSE (CNX) does not cause oil price.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document