scholarly journals Rockfish response to low-frequency ocean climate change as revealed by the diet of a marine bird over multiple time scales

2004 ◽  
Vol 281 ◽  
pp. 207-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
AK Miller ◽  
WJ Sydeman
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa Bedinger ◽  
Lindsay Beevers ◽  
Lila Collet ◽  
Annie Visser

Climate change is a product of the Anthropocene, and the human–nature system in which we live. Effective climate change adaptation requires that we acknowledge this complexity. Theoretical literature on sustainability transitions has highlighted this and called for deeper acknowledgment of systems complexity in our research practices. Are we heeding these calls for ‘systems’ research? We used hydrohazards (floods and droughts) as an example research area to explore this question. We first distilled existing challenges for complex human–nature systems into six central concepts: Uncertainty, multiple spatial scales, multiple time scales, multimethod approaches, human–nature dimensions, and interactions. We then performed a systematic assessment of 737 articles to examine patterns in what methods are used and how these cover the complexity concepts. In general, results showed that many papers do not reference any of the complexity concepts, and no existing approach addresses all six. We used the detailed results to guide advancement from theoretical calls for action to specific next steps. Future research priorities include the development of methods for consideration of multiple hazards; for the study of interactions, particularly in linking the short- to medium-term time scales; to reduce data-intensivity; and to better integrate bottom–up and top–down approaches in a way that connects local context with higher-level decision-making. Overall this paper serves to build a shared conceptualisation of human–nature system complexity, map current practice, and navigate a complexity-smart trajectory for future research.


2008 ◽  
Vol 17 ◽  
pp. 23-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Loukas ◽  
L. Vasiliades ◽  
J. Tzabiras

Abstract. This paper evaluates climate change effects on drought severity in the region of Thessaly, Greece. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) has been used for estimation of drought severity. A geographical information system is applied for the division of Thessaly region to twelve hydrological homogeneous areas based on their geomorphology. Mean monthly precipitation values from 50 precipitation stations of Thessaly for the hydrological period October 1960–September 1990 were used for the estimation of mean areal precipitation. These precipitation timeseries have been used for the estimation of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for multiple time scales (1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-months) for each sub-basin or area. The outputs of Global Circulation Model CGCM2 were applied for two socioeconomic scenarios, namely, SRES A2 and SRES B2 for the assessment of climate change impact on droughts. The GCM outputs were downscaled to the region of Thessaly using a statistical methodology to estimate precipitation time series for two future periods 2020–2050 and 2070–2100. A method has been proposed for the estimation of annual cumulative drought severity-time scale-frequency curves. These curves integrate the drought severity and frequency for various types of drought. The SPI timeseries and annual weighted cumulative drought severity were estimated and compared with the respective timeseries and values of the historical period 1960–1990. The results showed that the annual drought severity is increased for all hydrological areas and SPI time scales, with the socioeconomic scenario SRES A2 being the most extreme.


2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (10) ◽  
pp. 2297-2312 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. C. Stoy ◽  
A. D. Richardson ◽  
D. D. Baldocchi ◽  
G. G. Katul ◽  
J. Stanovick ◽  
...  

Abstract. The net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) varies at time scales from seconds to years and longer via the response of its components, gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (RE), to physical and biological drivers. Quantifying the relationship between flux and climate at multiple time scales is necessary for a comprehensive understanding of the role of climate in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Orthonormal wavelet transformation (OWT) can quantify the strength of the interactions between gappy eddy covariance flux and micrometeorological measurements at multiple frequencies while expressing time series variance in few energetic wavelet coefficients, offering a low-dimensional view of the response of terrestrial carbon flux to climatic variability. The variability of NEE, GEP and RE, and their co-variability with dominant climatic drivers, are explored with nearly one thousand site-years of data from the FLUXNET global dataset consisting of 253 eddy covariance research sites. The NEE and GEP wavelet spectra were similar among plant functional types (PFT) at weekly and shorter time scales, but significant divergence appeared among PFT at the biweekly and longer time scales, at which NEE and GEP were relatively less variable than climate. The RE spectra rarely differed among PFT across time scales as expected. On average, RE spectra had greater low frequency (monthly to interannual) variability than NEE, GEP and climate. CANOAK ecosystem model simulations demonstrate that "multi-annual" spectral peaks in flux may emerge at low (4+ years) time scales. Biological responses to climate and other internal system dynamics, rather than direct ecosystem response to climate, provide the likely explanation for observed multi-annual variability, but data records must be lengthened and measurements of ecosystem state must be made, and made available, to disentangle the mechanisms responsible for low frequency patterns in ecosystem CO2 exchange.


2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 3729-3757 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Steiger ◽  
G. Hakim

Abstract. Paleoclimate proxy data span seasonal to millennial time scales, and Earth's climate system has both high- and low-frequency components. Yet it is currently unclear how best to incorporate multiple time scales of proxy data into a single reconstruction framework and to also capture both high- and low-frequency components of reconstructed variables. Here we present a data assimilation algorithm that can explicitly incorporate proxy data at arbitrary time scales. Through a series of pseudoproxy experiments, we find that atmosphere–ocean states are most skilfully reconstructed by incorporating proxies across multiple time scales compared to using proxies at short (annual) or long (~ decadal) time scales alone. Additionally, reconstructions that incorporate long time-scale pseudoproxies improve the low-frequency components of the reconstructions relative to using only high-resolution pseudoproxies. We argue that this is because time averaging high-resolution observations improves their covariance relationship with the slowly-varying components of the coupled-climate system, which the data assimilation algorithm can exploit. These results are insensitive to the choice of climate model, despite the model variables having very different spectral characteristics. Our results also suggest that it may be possible to reconstruct features of the oceanic meridional overturning circulation based solely on atmospheric surface temperature proxies.


2008 ◽  
Vol 65 (11) ◽  
pp. 3398-3418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos F. M. Raupp ◽  
Pedro L. Silva Dias ◽  
Esteban G. Tabak ◽  
Paul Milewski

Abstract Weakly nonlinear interactions among equatorial waves have been explored in this paper using the adiabatic version of the equatorial β-plane primitive equations in isobaric coordinates. Assuming rigid lid vertical boundary conditions, the conditions imposed at the surface and at the top of the troposphere were expanded in a Taylor series around two isobaric surfaces in an approach similar to that used in the theory of surface–gravity waves in deep water and capillary–gravity waves. By adopting the asymptotic method of multiple time scales, the equatorial Rossby, mixed Rossby–gravity, inertio-gravity, and Kelvin waves, as well as their vertical structures, were obtained as leading-order solutions. These waves were shown to interact resonantly in a triad configuration at the O(ɛ) approximation. The resonant triads whose wave components satisfy a resonance condition for their vertical structures were found to have the most significant interactions, although this condition is not excluding, unlike the resonant conditions for the zonal wavenumbers and meridional modes. Thus, the analysis has focused on such resonant triads. In general, it was found that for these resonant triads satisfying the resonance condition in the vertical direction, the wave with the highest absolute frequency always acts as an energy source (or sink) for the remaining triad components, as usually occurs in several other physical problems in fluid dynamics. In addition, the zonally symmetric geostrophic modes act as catalyst modes for the energy exchanges between two dispersive waves in a resonant triad. The integration of the reduced asymptotic equations for a single resonant triad shows that, for the initial mode amplitudes characterizing realistic magnitudes of atmospheric flow perturbations, the modes in general exchange energy on low-frequency (intraseasonal and/or even longer) time scales, with the interaction period being dependent upon the initial mode amplitudes. Potential future applications of the present theory to the real atmosphere with the inclusion of diabatic forcing, dissipation, and a more realistic background state are also discussed.


2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 4095-4141 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. C. Stoy ◽  
A. D. Richardson ◽  
D. D. Baldocchi ◽  
G. G. Katul ◽  
J. Stanovick ◽  
...  

Abstract. The biosphere-atmosphere flux of CO2 responds to climatic variability at time scales from seconds to years and longer. Quantifying the strength of the interaction between the flux and climate variables at multiple frequencies is necessary to begin understanding the climatic controls on the dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Orthonormal wavelet transformation (OWT) can quantify the interaction between flux and microclimate at multiple frequencies while expressing time series variance in few energetic wavelet coefficients, offering a low-dimensional view of the measured climate-flux interaction. The variability of the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE), gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and ecosystem respiration (RE), and their co-variability with dominant climatic drivers, are explored with a global dataset consisting of 253 eddy covariance research sites. Results demonstrate that the NEE and GEP wavelet spectra are similar amongst plant functional types (PFT) at weekly and shorter time scales, but significant divergence appeared among PFT at the biweekly and longer time scales, at which NEE and GEP are relatively less variable than climate. The RE spectra rarely differ among PFT across time scales. On average, RE spectra had greater low frequency (monthly to interannual) variability than NEE, GEP and climate. The low frequency Fourier coefficients of eight sites with more than eight years of data were compared against CANOAK ecosystem model simulations. Both measurements and theory demonstrate that "multi-annual" spectral peaks in flux may emerge at low (4+ years) time scales. Biological responses to climate and other internal system dynamics provide the likely explanation for observed multi-annual variability, but data records must be lengthened and measurements of ecosystem state must be made, and made available, to disentangle the mechanisms responsible for these patterns.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Liang ◽  
◽  
Daniele J. Cherniak ◽  
Chenguang Sun

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document