scholarly journals Assessment of climatically suitable area for Syrmaticus reevesii under climate change

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
X Feng ◽  
C Lin ◽  
H Qiao ◽  
L Ji
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
Syrmaticus Reevesii

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese White Pine Beetle Dendroctonus armandi in China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 544
Author(s):  
Hang Ning ◽  
Ming Tang ◽  
Hui Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Central China ◽  
Qinling Mountains ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact

Dendroctonus armandi (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytidae) is a bark beetle native to China and is the most destructive forest pest in the Pinus armandii woodlands of central China. Due to ongoing climate warming, D. armandi outbreaks have become more frequent and severe. Here, we used Maxent to model its current and future potential distribution in China. Minimum temperature of the coldest month and precipitation seasonality are the two major factors constraining the current distribution of D. armandi. Currently, the suitable area of D. armandi falls within the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains. The total suitable area is 15.83 × 104 km2. Under future climate scenarios, the total suitable area is projected to increase slightly, while remaining within the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains. Among the climate scenarios, the distribution expanded the most under the maximum greenhouse gas emission scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5). Under all assumptions, the highly suitable area is expected to increase over time; the increase will occur in southern Shaanxi, northwest Hubei, and northeast Sichuan Provinces. By the 2050s, the highly suitable area is projected to increase by 0.82 × 104 km2. By the 2050s, the suitable climatic niche for D. armandi will increase along the Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains, posing a major challenge for forest managers. Our findings provide information that can be used to monitor D. armandi populations, host health, and the impact of climate change, shedding light on the effectiveness of management responses.

scholarly journals MaxEnt Modeling Based on CMIP6 Models to Project Potential Suitable Zones for Cunninghamia lanceolata in China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 752
Author(s):  
Yichen Zhou ◽  
Zengxin Zhang ◽  
Bin Zhu ◽  
Xuefei Cheng ◽  
Liu Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Cunninghamia Lanceolata ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Timber Species ◽  
Diurnal Range ◽  
The Future ◽  
Suitable Area

Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. (Chinese fir) is one of the main timber species in Southern China, which has a wide planting range that accounts for 25% of the overall afforested area. Moreover, it plays a critical role in soil and water conservation; however, its suitability is subject to climate change. For this study, the appropriate distribution area of C. lanceolata was analyzed using the MaxEnt model based on CMIP6 data, spanning 2041–2060. The results revealed that (1) the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), and the mean diurnal range (bio2) were the most important environmental variables that affected the distribution of C. lanceolata; (2) the currently suitable areas of C. lanceolata were primarily distributed along the southern coastal areas of China, of which 55% were moderately so, while only 18% were highly suitable; (3) the projected suitable area of C. lanceolata would likely expand based on the BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5, and MRI-ESM2-0 under different SSPs spanning 2041–2060. The increased area estimated for the future ranged from 0.18 to 0.29 million km2, where the total suitable area of C. lanceolata attained a maximum value of 2.50 million km2 under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, with a lowest value of 2.39 million km2 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario; (4) in combination with land use and farmland protection policies of China, it is estimated that more than 60% of suitable land area could be utilized for C. lanceolata planting from 2041–2060 under different SSP scenarios. Although climate change is having an increasing influence on species distribution, the deleterious impacts of anthropogenic activities cannot be ignored. In the future, further attention should be paid to the investigation of species distribution under the combined impacts of climate change and human activities.

scholarly journals Predicted Future Benefits for an Endemic Rodent in the Irano-Turanian Region

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Suzanna Meeussen ◽  
Anouschka Hof
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Ranges ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is expected to have an impact on the geographical distribution ranges of species. Endemic species and those with a restricted geographic range may be especially vulnerable. The Persian jird (Meriones persicus) is an endemic rodent inhabiting the mountainous areas of the Irano-Turanian region, where future desertification may form a threat to the species. In this study, the species distribution modelling algorithm MaxEnt was used to assess the impact of future climate change on the geographic distribution range of the Persian jird. Predictions were made under two Representative Concentration Pathways and five different climate models for the years 2050 and 2070. It was found that both bioclimatic variables and land use variables were important in determining potential suitability of the region for the species to occur. In most cases, the future predictions showed an expansion of the geographic range of the Persian jird which indicates that the species is not under immediate threat. There are however uncertainties with regards to its current range. Predictions may therefore be an over or underestimation of the total suitable area. Further research is thus needed to confirm the current geographic range of the Persian jird to be able to improve assessments of the impact of future climate change.

scholarly journals Prediction of Spatiotemporal Invasive Risk of the Red Import Fire Ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), in China

Insects ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 874
Author(s):  
Jinyue Song ◽  
Hua Zhang ◽  
Ming Li ◽  
Wuhong Han ◽  
Yuxin Yin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Solenopsis Invicta ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Fire Ant ◽  
Invasive Pest ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Suitable Area

The red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), is an invasive pest, and it has spread rapidly all over the world. Predicting the suitable area of S. invicta growth in China will provide a reference that will allow for its invasion to be curbed. In this study, based on the 354 geographical distribution records of S. invicta, combined with 24 environmental factors, the suitable areas of S. invicta growth in China under current (2000s) and future (2030s and 2050s) climate scenarios (SSPs1-2.5s, SSPs2-3.5s and SSPs5-8.5s) were predicted by using the optimized MaxEnt model and geo-detector model. An iterative algorithm and knife-cut test were used to evaluate the important environmental factors that restrict the suitable area under the current climatic conditions. This study also used the response curve to determine the appropriate value of environmental factors to further predict the change and the center of gravity transfer of the suitable area under climate change. The optimized MaxEnt model has high prediction accuracy, and the working curve area (AUC) of the subjects is 0.974. Under climatic conditions, the suitable area is 81.37 × 104 km2 in size and is mainly located in the south and southeast of China. The main environmental factors affecting the suitable area are temperature (Bio1, Bio6, and Bio9), precipitation (Bio12 and Bio14) and NDVI. In future climate change scenarios, the total suitable area will spread to higher latitudes. This distribution will provide an important theoretical basis for relevant departments to rapidly prevent and control the invasion of S. invicta.

scholarly journals Range Shift in Response to Climate Change of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus Based on Species Redundancy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Chen ◽  
Yuan Feng ◽  
Wu Kui ◽  
Dai Dong ◽  
Wang Dong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Pattern ◽  
Host Plants ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Pattern Similarity ◽  
Caterpillar Fungus ◽  
Suitable Area

The presence of the Chinese caterpillar fungus (CCF) depends on the distribution of its host insects and host plants. However, its distribution pattern in response to climate change and interspecific relationships in geographical distribution is unknown. We used the MaxEnt model to obtain areas suitable for the CCF, considering its host insects and host plants under different historical climate backgrounds. We then superimposed and analyzed them to explore the range shift in response to climate change of Chinese caterpillar fungus based on species redundancy. From the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to 2050, the suitable distribution pattern of the CCF is estimated to change from fragmentized to concentrated and connected. The high redundancy area (HRA) continued to increase from the Middle Holocene (MH) to the present and 2050, with an increased area of 31.46×104 km2. The suitable area moved to the northwest and the total movement distance of its average coordinates was about 500 km. The altitude of the suitable area increased continuously from the LGM to the present and to 2050, and the average altitude of HRA increased from 2740.89 m (LGM) to 4246.76 m (2050). The distribution pattern and changes of CCF under different climatic conditions provides a reference for the current and future geographical regional planning for conservation and sustainable utilization. The distribution pattern similarity of the CCF suitable area, suitable area for host insects, and host plants HRA of distribution area, might be the result of their long-term co-evolution. The decreasing trend of CCF yield under human disturbance was not as severe as expected, suggesting that climate change may be beneficial to distribution expansion of the CCF.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate projections on water balance and implications on olive crop in Minas Gerais

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego F. dos Santos ◽  
◽  
Fabrina B. Martins ◽  
Roger R. Torres
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Alternative Source ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Olive Cultivation ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT Minas Gerais is vulnerable to climate change, with negative impacts on water balance and changes in the cultivation of several crops. Currently, the olive crop has been an alternative source for farmers, especially those in the South of the state. However, there is no information on areas with climatic conditions suitable for olive cultivation, as well as the possible impacts of climate change. The aim of this study was to verify the impact of climate projections on water balance and agroclimatic zoning for olive cultivation in the Minas Gerais, based on current climate conditions (1980-2011), and different climate change projections for three future periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100). For the current climate, Minas Gerais showed 37% of suitable area, 15% of marginal area and 48% of unsuitable area for olive cultivation. For the period 2071-2100, only 4% was classified as suitable area, 6% as marginal area and 90% as unsuitable. Projections of climate change, of both temperature and rainfall, will affect the olive cultivation, substantially reducing the suitable area in the entire state.

scholarly journals Identifying Potentially Climatic Suitability Areas for Arma custos (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) in China under Climate Change

Insects ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 674
Author(s):  
Shiyu Fan ◽  
Chao Chen ◽  
Qing Zhao ◽  
Jiufeng Wei ◽  
Hufang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spodoptera Frugiperda ◽  
Future Application ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Optimal Range ◽  
Forest Pests ◽  
The North ◽  
Climatic Scenarios ◽  
Major Factors ◽  
Suitable Area

Spodoptera frugiperda is a notorious pest that feeds on more than 80 crops, and has spread over 100 countries. Many biological agents have been employed to regulate it, such as Arma custos. A. custos is a polyphagous predatory heteropteran, which can effectively suppress several agricultural and forest pests. Thus, in order to understand where A. custos can survive and where can be released, MaxEnt was used to predict the potentially suitable areas for A. custos in China under climate change conditions. The results show that the annual mean temperature (bio1) and annual precipitation (bio12) are the major factors influencing the distribution of A. custos. The optimal range of the two are 7.5 to 15 °C, 750 to 1200 mm, respectively. The current climate is highly suitable for A. custos in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Anhui, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang Provinces. Considering the currently suitable distribution area of S. frugiperda, artificially reared A. custos is suitable for release in Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hunan, and southeastern Sichuan Provinces. Under the future climatic scenarios, the suitable area will decrease and shift towards the north. Overall, this result can provide a reference framework for future application of A. custos for biological control.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Styrax sumatrana in North Sumatra, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 462
Author(s):  
Muhammad Hadi Saputra ◽  
Han Soo Lee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Ex Situ ◽  
Conservation Strategies ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
North Sumatra

This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on the distribution of Styrax sumatrana in North Sumatra by applying the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model with biophysical factors (elevation, slope, aspect, and soil), climatic factors (19 bioclimate data sets for 2050 and 2070), and anthropogenic factors (land use land cover (LULC) changes in 2050 and 2070). The future climate data retrieved and used are the output of four climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), namely, the CCSM4, CNRM-CM5, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The MaxEnt modelling results showed the importance of the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and the LULC variables. Styrax sumatrana rely on environmental conditions with air temperatures ranging from 13 to 19 °C. The potentially suitable land types for Styrax sumatrana are shrubs, gardens, and forests. The future predictions show that the suitable habitat for Styrax sumatrana is predicted to decrease to 3.87% in 2050 and to 3.54% in 2070 under the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the suitable area is predicted to decrease to 3.04% in 2050 and to 1.36% in 2070, respectively. The degradation of the suitable area is mainly due to increasing temperature and deforestation in future predictions. The modelling results illustrate that the suitable habitats of Styrax sumatrana are likely to be reduced under future climate change scenarios or lost in 2070 under the RCP8.5 scenario. The potential future extinction of this species should alert authorities to formulate conservation strategies. Results also demonstrated key variables that should be used for formulating ex situ conservation strategies.

scholarly journals Predicting the spatial and temporal effects of climate change on the south american lizard genus Teius (Squamata: Teiidae)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ignacio Minoli ◽  
Pier Cacciali ◽  
Mariana Morando ◽  
Luciano Javier Avila
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Space Versus ◽  
Geographic Area ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
South American ◽  
Lizard Species ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
Geographic Space ◽  
Environmental Space ◽  
Suitable Area

Background. The consequences of past or future climate change have been studied in many physical and biological systems, and their effects could change the ecology and spatial distribution of suitable areas for a wide variety of organisms. Methods. We analyzed the environmental and geographic space of the current suitable area and we projected these conditions into Mid-Holocene and 2050 RCP8.5 scenarios. Through these projections, we assessed and quantified whether climate change would affect the distribution and size of environmental and geographic space for lizard species of the genus Teius. Results. The potentially suitable geographic area for the Mid-Holocene decreased for T. oculatus (-29.55%) and for T. teyou (-6.82%), but for T. suquiensis it was inferred as a larger suitable area (+26%). For the future scenario all species showed a decrease in the potentially suitable area compared to the present (T. oculatus = -9.30%, T. teyou = -0.79%, T. suquiensis = -37.58%). The first 3 PCA axes in the environmental space explained more than 86% of the variation for each temporal scenario for all species. The higher contribution for PC1-2 in Mid-Holocene and Present were mostly related to temperature and for PC3 with altitude variables: and for the 2050 scenario were temperature for PC1, precipitation for PC2 and altitude-temperature for PC3. The hypervolumen distance for T. oculatus from the Present scenario to Mid-Holocene = 67.80 and for 2050 = 309.10; for T. teyou to Mid-Holocene = 95.67 and for 2050 = 442.67; for T. suquiensis to Mid-Holocene = 275.57 and for 2050 = 248.07. Discussion. These results suggest that current geographic space versus the other temporal forecast of all Teius species, showed different specific magnitude changes in their potentially suitable areas. This work illustrates how ectothermic organisms might have to face major changes in their environmental and geographic space as a consequence of the effect of climate changes.

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