scholarly journals Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change

2010 ◽  
Vol 92 (3) ◽  
pp. 201-207 ◽  
Author(s):  
D Rödder ◽  
J Kielgast ◽  
S Lötters
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Chytrid Fungus ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Amphibian Chytrid Fungus

Ecological niche modeling of coastal dune plants and future potential distribution in response to climate change and sea level rise

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 2524-2535 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriela Mendoza-González ◽  
M. Luisa Martínez ◽  
Octavio R. Rojas-Soto ◽  
Gabriela Vázquez ◽  
Juan B. Gallego-Fernández
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Ecological Niche Modeling ◽  
Niche Modeling ◽  
Coastal Dune Plants ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Dune Plants

Will dragonblood survive the next period of climate change? Current and future potential distribution of Dracaena cinnabari (Socotra, Yemen)

2007 ◽  
Vol 138 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 430-439 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio Attorre ◽  
Fabio Francesconi ◽  
Nadim Taleb ◽  
Paul Scholte ◽  
Ahmed Saed ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Dracaena Cinnabari

scholarly journals Modeling the Potential Global Distribution of Phenacoccus madeirensis Green under Various Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 773 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiufeng Wei ◽  
Xiaozhou Li ◽  
Yunyun Lu ◽  
Ling Zhao ◽  
Hufang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Invasive Pest ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Phenacoccus Madeirensis ◽  
Control And Management

The Madeira mealybug, Phenacoccus madeirensis Green, is a serious invasive pest that does significant damage to more than 120 genera of host plants from 51 families in more than 81 countries. However, the potential distribution range of this pest is unclear, which could hamper control and eradication efforts. In the current study, MaxEnt models were developed to forecast the current and future distribution of the Madeira mealybug around the world. Moreover, the future potential distribution of this invasive species was projected for the 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (HADGEM2-AO, GFDL-CM3, and MIROC5) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP-2.6 and RCP-8.5). The final model indicates that the Madeira mealybug has a highly suitable range for the continents of Asia, Europe, and Africa, as well as South America and North America, where this species has already been recorded. Potential expansions or reductions in distribution were also simulated under different future climatic conditions. Our study also suggested that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor and explained 46.9% of the distribution model. The distribution model from the current and future predictions can enhance the strategic planning of agricultural and forestry organization by identifying regions that will need to develop integrated pest management programs to manage Madeira mealybug, especially for some highly suitable areas, such as South Asia and Europe. Moreover, the results of this research will help governments to optimize investment in the control and management of the Madeira mealybug by identifying regions that are or will become suitable for infestations.

scholarly journals Predictive Modelling of Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Spectacled Bear (Tremarctos ornatus) in Amazonas, Northeast Peru

Animals ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1816
Author(s):  
Gerson Meza Mori ◽  
Elgar Barboza Castillo ◽  
Cristóbal Torres Guzmán ◽  
Dany A. Cotrina Sánchez ◽  
Betty K. Guzman Valqui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Predictive Modelling ◽  
High Potential ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Potential Habitat ◽  
Total Potential ◽  
Protected Natural Areas ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Sustainable Conservation

The spectacled, or Andean, bear (Tremarctos ornatus) is classified as vulnerable by the IUCN due to climate change and human-induced habitat fragmentation. There is an urgent need for the conservation of spectacled bear at real time. However, the lack of knowledge about the distribution of this species is considered as one of the major limitations for decision-making and sustainable conservation. In this study, 92 geo-referenced records of the spectacled bear, 12 environmental variables and the MaxEnt entropy modelling have been used for predictive modelling for the current and future (2050 and 2070) potential distribution of the spectacled bear in Amazonas, northeastern Peru. The areas of “high”, “moderate” and “low” potential habitat under current conditions cover 1.99% (836.22 km2), 14.46% (6081.88 km2) and 20.73% (8718.98 km2) of the Amazon, respectively. “High” potential habitat will increase under all climate change scenarios, while “moderate” and “low” potential habitat, as well as total habitat, will decrease over the time. The “moderate”, “low” and total potential habitat are distributed mainly in Yunga montane forest, combined grasslands/rangelands and secondary vegetation and Yunga altimontane (rain) forest, while “high” potential habitat is also concentrated in the Jalca. The overall outcome showed that the most of the important habitats of the spectacled bear are not part of the protected natural areas of Amazonas, under current as well as under future scenarios.

Present and future potential distribution of the endemic Perote ground squirrel (Xerospermophilus perotensis) under different climate change scenarios

Mammalia ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Arturo García-Domínguez ◽  
Octavio Rafael Rojas-Soto ◽  
Jorge R. Galindo-González ◽  
Alberto González-Romero ◽  
María del Rosario Pineda-López ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ground Squirrel ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Potential

scholarly journals MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of Quercus libani Olivier

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2671 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Oğuz Çoban ◽  
Ömer K. Örücü ◽  
E. Seda Arslan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Change Analysis ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Future Potential

The purpose of the study was to model the current and potential future distribution of Quercus libani Olivier (Lebanon Oak), a tree species in Turkey, and to predict the changes in its geographical distribution under different climate change scenarios. In this study, 19 bioclimatic variables at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds (~1 km2) were used, collected from the WorldClim database. The bioclimatic data with high correlation according to 31 sets of presence data on the species were reduced with principal component analysis (PCA), and the current and potential distribution were identified using MaxEnt 3.4.1 software. In order to predict how the distribution of the species will be affected by climate change, its potential geographical distribution by 2050 and 2070 was modeled under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of the species using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, version 4), which is a climate change model based on the report of the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Change analysis was performed to determine the spatial differences between its current and future distribution areas. The study results showed that the suitable areas for the current distribution of Quercus libani Olivier cover 72,819 km2. Depending on the CCSM4 climate model, the suitable area will decline to 67,580 km2 by 2070, according to the RCP 4.5 scenario, or 63,390 km2 in the RCP 8.5 scenario. This may lead to a reduction in the future population of this species. The change analysis showed that suitable and highly suitable areas will decrease under global climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for both current and future potential distribution areas. In this context, our study results indicate that for the management of this species, protective environmental measures should be taken, and climate change models need to be considered in land use and forest management planning.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document