scholarly journals Two models for the climate change related development of sea levels in the North Sea-a comparison

2000 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 61-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
F Kauker ◽  
H Langenberg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
The North ◽  
Related Development ◽  
The North Sea

What can idealized storm surge simulations tell us about worst case scenarios?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elin Andrée ◽  
Jian Su ◽  
Martin Drews ◽  
Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen ◽  
Asger Bendix Hansen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Wind Direction ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Sea Coast ◽  
North Sea Coast

<p>The potential impacts of extreme sea level events are becoming more apparent to the public and policy makers alike. As the magnitude of these events are expected to increase due to climate change, and increased coastal urbanization results in ever increasing stakes in the coastal zones, the need for risk assessments is growing too.</p><p>The physical conditions that generate extreme sea levels are highly dependent on site specific conditions, such as bathymetry, tidal regime, wind fetch and the shape of the coastline. For a low-lying country like Denmark, which consists of a peninsula and islands that partition off the semi-enclosed Baltic Sea from the North Sea, a better understanding of how the local sea level responds to wind forcing is urgently called for.</p><p>We here present a map for Denmark that shows the most efficient wind directions for generating extreme sea levels, for a total of 70 locations distributed all over the country’s coastlines. The maps are produced by conducting simulations with a high resolution, 3D-ocean model, which is used for operational storm surge modelling at the Danish Meteorological Institute. We force the model with idealized wind fields that maintain a fixed wind speed and wind direction over the entire model domain. Simulations are conducted for one wind speed and one wind direction at a time, generating ensembles of a set of wind directions for a fixed wind speed, as well as a set of wind speeds for a fixed wind direction, respectively.</p><p>For each wind direction, we find that the maximum water level at a given location increases linearly with the wind speed, and the slope values show clear spatial patterns, for example distinguishing the Danish southern North Sea coast from the central or northern North Sea Coast. The slope values are highest along the southwestern North Sea coast, where the passage of North Atlantic low pressure systems over the shallow North Sea, as well as the large tidal range, result in a much larger range of variability than in the more sheltered Inner Danish Waters. However, in our simulations the large fetch of the Baltic Sea, in combination with the funneling effect of the Danish Straits, result in almost as high water levels as along the North Sea coast.</p><p>Although the wind forcing is completely synthetic with no spatial and temporal structure of a real storm, this idealized approach allows us to systematically investigate the sea level response at the boundaries of what is physically plausible. We evaluate the results from these simulations by comparison to peak water levels from a 58 year long, high resolution ocean hindcast, with promising agreement.</p>

Decline in Atlantic wolffish Anarhichas lupus in the North Sea: Impacts of fishing pressure and climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanna K. Bluemel ◽  
Simon Fischer ◽  
David W. Kulka ◽  
Christopher P. Lynam ◽  
Jim R. Ellis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Fishing Pressure ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Anarhichas Lupus ◽  
Atlantic Wolffish

scholarly journals Climate change effects on marine protected areas: Projected decline of benthic species in the North Sea

2021 ◽  
Vol 163 ◽  
pp. 105230
Author(s):  
Michael Weinert ◽  
Moritz Mathis ◽  
Ingrid Kröncke ◽  
Thomas Pohlmann ◽  
Henning Reiss
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Marine Protected Areas ◽  
Benthic Species ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea

scholarly journals The effects of climate change on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the North Sea

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 1525-1557
Author(s):  
K. O'Driscoll ◽  
B. Mayer ◽  
J. Su ◽  
M. Mathis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Pollutants ◽  
North Sea ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Persistent Organic Pollutants ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Open Boundary ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future ◽  
The North Sea

Abstract. The fate and cycling of two selected legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs), PCB 153 and γ-HCH, in the North Sea in the 21st century have been modelled with combined hydrodynamic and fate and transport ocean models. To investigate the impact of climate variability on POPs in the North Sea in the 21st century, future scenario model runs for three 10 yr periods to the year 2100 using plausible levels of both in situ concentrations and atmospheric, river and open boundary inputs are performed. Since estimates of future concentration levels of POPs in the atmosphere, oceans and rivers are not available, our approach was to reutilise 2005 values in the atmosphere, rivers and at the open ocean boundaries for every year of the simulations. In this way, we attribute differences between the three 10 yr simulations to climate change only. For the HAMSOM and atmospheric forcing, results of the IPCC A1B (SRES) 21st century scenario are utilised, where surface forcing is provided by the REMO downscaling of the ECHAM5 global atmospheric model, and open boundary conditions are provided by the MPIOM global ocean model. Dry gas deposition and volatilisation of γ-HCH increase in the future relative to the present. In the water column, total mass of γ-HCH and PCB 153 remain fairly steady in all three runs. In sediment, γ-HCH increases in the future runs, relative to the present, while PCB 153 in sediment decreases exponentially in all three runs, but even faster in the future, both of which are the result of climate change. Annual net sinks exceed sources at the ends of all periods.

scholarly journals Surface Heat Budget over the North Sea in Climate Change Simulations

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Dieterich ◽  
Shiyu Wang ◽  
Semjon Schimanke ◽  
Matthias Gröger ◽  
Birgit Klein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Flux ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Surface Heat ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Surface Heat Budget

An ensemble of regional climate change scenarios for the North Sea is validated and analyzed. Five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) General Circulation Models (GCMs) using three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) have been downscaled with the coupled atmosphere–ice–ocean model RCA4-NEMO. Validation of sea surface temperature (SST) against different datasets suggests that the model results are well within the spread of observational datasets. The ensemble mean SST with a bias of less than 1 ∘ C is the solution that fits the observations best and underlines the importance of ensemble modeling. The exchange of momentum, heat, and freshwater between atmosphere and ocean in the regional, coupled model compares well with available datasets. The climatological seasonal cycles of these fluxes are within the 95% confidence limits of the datasets. Towards the end of the 21st century the projected North Sea SST increases by 1.5 ∘ C (RCP 2.6), 2 ∘ C (RCP 4.5), and 4 ∘ C (RCP 8.5), respectively. Under this change the North Sea develops a specific pattern of the climate change signal for the air–sea temperature difference and latent heat flux in the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. In the RCP 8.5 scenario the amplitude of the spatial heat flux anomaly increases to 5 W/m 2 at the end of the century. Different hypotheses are discussed that could contribute to the spatially non-uniform change in air–sea interaction. The most likely cause for an increased latent heat loss in the central western North Sea is a drier atmosphere towards the end of the century. Drier air in the lee of the British Isles affects the balance of the surface heat budget of the North Sea. This effect is an example of how regional characteristics modulate global climate change. For climate change projections on regional scales it is important to resolve processes and feedbacks at regional scales.

scholarly journals Shifts in spawning phenology of cod linked to rising sea temperatures

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (6) ◽  
pp. 1561-1573 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kate McQueen ◽  
C. Tara Marshall
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Atlantic Cod ◽  
Size Structure ◽  
Gonadal Development ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Irish Sea ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea

AbstractWarming temperatures caused by climate change have the potential to impact spawning phenology of temperate marine fish as some species have temperature-dependent gonadal development. Inter-annual variation in the timing of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) spawning in the northern North Sea, central North Sea and Irish Sea was estimated by calculating an annual peak roe month (PRM) from records of roe landings spanning the last three decades. A trend towards earlier PRM was found in all three regions, with estimates of shifts in PRM ranging from 0.9 to 2.4 weeks per decade. Temperatures experienced by cod during early vitellogenesis correlated negatively with PRM, suggesting that rising sea temperatures have contributed to a shift in spawning phenology. A concurrent reduction in the mean size of spawning females excluded the possibility that earlier spawning was due to a shift in size structure towards larger individuals, as large cod spawn earlier than smaller-sized individuals in the North Sea. Further research into the effects of climate change on the phenology of different trophic levels within the North Sea ecosystem should be undertaken to determine whether climate change-induced shifts in spawning phenology will result in a temporal mismatch between cod larvae and their planktonic prey.

scholarly journals The catastrophic final flooding of Doggerland by the Storegga Slide tsunami

2008 ◽  
Vol 35 ◽  
pp. 1-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernhard Weninger ◽  
Rick Schulting ◽  
Marcel Bradtmöller ◽  
Lee Clare ◽  
Mark Collard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Continental Shelf ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Submarine Landslide ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
The North ◽  
Coastal Margin ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Rising Sea Levels ◽  
Storegga Slide

Around 8200 calBP, large parts of the now submerged North Sea continental shelf (‘Doggerland’) were catastrophically flooded by the Storegga Slide tsunami, one of the largest tsunamis known for the Holocene, which was generated on the Norwegian coastal margin by a submarine landslide. In the present paper, we derive a precise calendric date for the Storegga Slide tsunami, use this date for reconstruction of contemporary coastlines in the North Sea in relation to rapidly rising sea-levels, and discuss the potential effects of the tsunami on the contemporaneous Mesolithic population. One main result of this study is an unexpectedly high tsunami impact assigned to the western regions of Jutland.

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