scholarly journals Wintertime circulation types over the Iberian Peninsula: long-term variability and relationships with weather extremes

2012 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 205-227 ◽  
Author(s):  
S Fernández-Montes ◽  
S Seubert ◽  
FS Rodrigo ◽  
E Hertig
Energy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 226 ◽  
pp. 120364
Author(s):  
Sheila Carreno-Madinabeitia ◽  
Gabriel Ibarra-Berastegi ◽  
Jon Sáenz ◽  
Alain Ulazia

2014 ◽  
Vol 138 ◽  
pp. 41-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Fernández-Montes ◽  
S. Seubert ◽  
F.S. Rodrigo ◽  
D.F. Rasilla Álvarez ◽  
E. Hertig ◽  
...  

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 849
Author(s):  
Begoña de la Fuente ◽  
Santiago Saura

The invasive pine wood nematode (PWN), Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, causal agent of pine wilt disease, was first reported in Europe, near Lisbon, in 1999, and has since then spread to most of Portugal. We here modelled the spatiotemporal patterns of future PNW natural spread in the Iberian Peninsula, as dispersed by the vector beetle Monochamus galloprovincialis, using a process-based and previously validated network model. We improved the accuracy, informative content, forecasted period and spatial drivers considered in previous modelling efforts for the PWN in Southern Europe. We considered the distribution and different susceptibility to the PWN of individual pine tree species and the effect of climate change projections on environmental suitability for PWN spread, as we modelled the PWN expansion dynamics over the long term (>100 years). We found that, in the absence of effective containment measures, the PWN will spread naturally to the entire Iberian Peninsula, including the Pyrenees, where it would find a gateway for spread into France. The PWN spread will be relatively gradual, with an average rate of 0.83% of the total current Iberian pine forest area infected yearly. Climate was not found to be an important limiting factor for long-term PWN spread, because (i) there is ample availability of alternative pathways for PWN dispersal through areas that are already suitable for the PWN in the current climatic conditions; and (ii) future temperatures will make most of the Iberian Peninsula suitable for the PWN before the end of this century. Unlike climate, the susceptibility of different pine tree species to the PWN was a strong determinant of PWN expansion through Spain. This finding highlights the importance of accounting for individual tree species data and of additional research on species-specific susceptibility for more accurate modelling of PWN spread and guidance of related containment efforts.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carla Gama ◽  
Alexandra Monteiro ◽  
Myriam Lopes ◽  
Ana Isabel Miranda

<p>Tropospheric ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) is a critical pollutant over the Mediterranean countries, including Portugal, due to systematic exceedances to the thresholds for the protection of human health. Due to the location of Portugal, on the Atlantic coast at the south-west point of Europe, the observed O<sub>3</sub> concentrations are very much influenced not only by local and regional production but also by northern mid-latitudes background concentrations. Ozone trends in the Iberian Peninsula were previously analysed by Monteiro et al. (2012), based on 10-years of O<sub>3</sub> observations. Nevertheless, only two of the eleven background monitoring stations analysed in that study are located in Portugal and these two stations are located in Porto and Lisbon urban areas. Although during pollution events O<sub>3</sub> levels in urban areas may be high enough to affect human health, the highest concentrations are found in rural locations downwind from the urban and industrialized areas, rather than in cities. This happens because close to the sources (e.g., in urban areas) freshly emitted NO locally scavenges O<sub>3</sub>. A long-term study of the spatial and temporal variability and trends of the ozone concentrations over Portugal is missing, aiming to answer the following questions:</p><p>-           What is the temporal variability of ozone concentrations?</p><p>-           Which trends can we find in observations?</p><p>-           How were the ozone spring maxima concentrations affected by the COVID-19 lockdown during spring 2020?</p><p>In this presentation, these questions will be answered based on the statistical analysis of O<sub>3</sub> concentrations recorded within the national air quality monitoring network between 2005 and 2020 (16 years). The variability of the surface ozone concentrations over Portugal, on the timescales from diurnal to annual, will be presented and discussed, taking into account the physical and chemical processes that control that variability. Using the TheilSen function from the OpenAir package for R (Carslaw and Ropkins 2012), which quantifies monotonic trends and calculates the associated p-value through bootstrap simulations, O<sub>3</sub> concentration long-term trends will be estimated for the different regions and environments (e.g., rural, urban).  Moreover, taking advantage of the unique situation provided by the COVID-19 lockdown during spring 2020, when the government imposed mandatory confinement and citizens movement restriction, leading to a reduction in traffic-related atmospheric emissions, the role of these emissions on ozone levels during the spring period will be studied and presented.</p><p> </p><p>Carslaw and Ropkins, 2012. Openair—an R package for air quality data analysis. Environ. Model. Softw. 27-28,52-61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2011.09.008</p><p>Monteiro et al., 2012. Trends in ozone concentrations in the Iberian Peninsula by quantile regression and clustering. Atmos. Environ. 56, 184-193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.03.069</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terhi K. Laurila ◽  
Victoria A. Sinclair ◽  
Hilppa Gregow

<p>The knowledge of long-term climate and variability of near-surface wind speeds is essential and widely used among meteorologists, climate scientists and in industries such as wind energy and forestry. The new high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) will likely be used as a reference in future climate projections and in many wind-related applications. Hence, it is important to know what is the mean climate and variability of wind speeds in ERA5.</p><p>We present the monthly 10-m wind speed climate and decadal variability in the North Atlantic and Europe during the 40-year period (1979-2018) based on ERA5. In addition, we examine temporal time series and possible trends in three locations: the central North Atlantic, Finland and Iberian Peninsula. Moreover, we investigate what are the physical reasons for the decadal changes in 10-m wind speeds.</p><p>The 40-year mean and the 98th percentile wind speeds show a distinct contrast between land and sea with the strongest winds over the ocean and a seasonal variation with the strongest winds during winter time. The winds have the highest values and variabilities associated with storm tracks and local wind phenomena such as the mistral. To investigate the extremeness of the winds, we defined an extreme find factor (EWF) which is the ratio between the 98th percentile and mean wind speeds. The EWF is higher in southern Europe than in northern Europe during all months. Mostly no statistically significant linear trends of 10-m wind speeds were found in the 40-year period in the three locations and the annual and decadal variability was large.</p><p>The windiest decade in northern Europe was the 1990s and in southern Europe the 1980s and 2010s. The decadal changes in 10-m wind speeds were largely explained by the position of the jet stream and storm tracks and the strength of the north-south pressure gradient over the North Atlantic. In addition, we investigated the correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) in the three locations. The NAO has a positive correlation in the central North Atlantic and Finland and a negative correlation in Iberian Peninsula. The AMO correlates moderately with the winds in the central North Atlantic but no correlation was found in Finland or the Iberian Peninsula. Overall, our study highlights that rather than just using long-term linear trends in wind speeds it is more informative to consider inter-annual or decadal variability.</p>


2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
José Enrique Granados ◽  
Andrea Ros-Candeira ◽  
Antonio Jesús Pérez-Luque ◽  
Ricardo Moreno-Llorca ◽  
Francisco Javier Cano-Manuel ◽  
...  

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document