scholarly journals Potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on China’s rice yield and production

2009 ◽  
Vol 40 ◽  
pp. 23-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
W Xiong ◽  
D Conway ◽  
E Lin ◽  
I Holman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Impact and uncertainty of climate projections on Alpine catchments using high-resolution models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Sebastian Moraga ◽  
Nadav Peleg ◽  
Simone Fatichi ◽  
Peter Molnar ◽  
Paolo Burlando
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Internal Climate Variability ◽  
Mountainous Catchments ◽  
Precipitation Decrease ◽  
Alpine Catchments ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>Hydrological processes in mountainous catchments will be subject to climate change on all scales, and their response is expected to vary considerably in space. Typical hydrological studies, which use coarse climate data inputs obtained from General Circulation Models (GCM) and Regional Climate Models (RCM), focus mostly on statistics at the outlet of the catchments, overlooking the effects within the catchments. Furthermore, the role of uncertainty, especially originated from natural climate variability, is rarely analyzed. In this work, we quantified the impacts of climate change on hydrological components and determined the sources of uncertainties in the projections for two mostly natural Swiss alpine catchments: Kleine Emme and Thur. Using a two-dimensional weather generator, AWE-GEN-2d, and based on nine different GCM-RCM model chains, we generated high-resolution (2 km, 1 hour) ensembles of gridded climate inputs until the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century. The simulated variables were subsequently used as inputs into the fully distributed hydrological model Topkapi-ETH to estimate the changes in hydrological statistics at 100-m and hourly resolutions. Increased temperatures (by 4°C, on average) and changes in precipitation (decrease over high elevations by up to 10%, and increase at the lower elevation by up to 15%) results in increased evapotranspiration rates in the order of 10%, up to a 50% snowmelt, and drier soil conditions. These changes translate into important shifts in streamflow seasonality at the outlet of the catchments, with a significant increase during the winter months (up to 40%) and a reduction during the summer (up to 30%). Analysis at the sub-catchment scale reveals elevation-dependent hydrological responses: mean annual streamflow, as well as high and low flow extremes, are projected to decrease in the uppermost sub-catchments and increase in the lower ones. Furthermore, we computed the uncertainty of the estimations and compared them to the magnitude of the change signal. Although the signal-to-noise-ratio of extreme streamflow for most sub-catchments is low (below 0.5) there is a clear elevation dependency. In every case, internal climate variability (as opposed to climate model uncertainty) explains most of the uncertainty, averaging 85% for maximum and minimum flows, and 60% for mean flows. The results highlight the importance of modelling the distributed impacts of climate change on mountainous catchments, and of taking into account the role of internal climate variability in hydrological projections.</p>

scholarly journals Simulating Climate Change Impacts and Adaptive Measures for Rice Cultivation in Hunan Province, China

2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (6) ◽  
pp. 1359-1376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yamei Li ◽  
Wenxiang Wu ◽  
Quansheng Ge ◽  
Yang Zhou ◽  
Chenchen Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adverse Effect ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Ensemble Average ◽  
Hunan Province ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Average Yield ◽  
Fertilization Effects ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractClimate change will inevitably continue for the next few decades and will have an impact on climate-sensitive agricultural production, emphasizing the need to design effective adaptive strategies to cope with climate risk or take advantage of potential climatic benefits. In this study, the latest version of the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis-Rice (CERES-Rice) model was applied to assess the impacts of climate change and carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization on rice yield, as well as the effectiveness of two popularly adopted adaptive measures in Hunan Province, the main rice-production location in China. The simulation spanned 30 years of baseline (1981–2010) as well as three future periods (2011–40, 2041–70, and 2071–99) with climate data generated by five general circulation models under the newly developed representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The simulation results showed that, in comparison with average rice yield during the baseline (1981–2010), the ensemble-average yield of all cultivars during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s would decrease under both RCPs without CO2 fertilization effects. The ensemble-average yield reduction during the 2080s was alleviated under both RCPs if CO2 fertilization effects were accounted for. Adaptation simulations indicated that two adaptive measures (switching cultivars and changing planting dates) could mitigate the adverse effect to different extents. The intermodel variability under both RCPs was generally small. These findings may provide useful insight into the potential impacts of climate change on rice yield and effective adaptive measures to mitigate the adverse effect of future climate change in Hunan Province.

CERES-Rice model-based simulations of climate change impacts on rice yields and efficacy of adaptive options in Northeast China

2014 ◽  
Vol 65 (12) ◽  
pp. 1267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenxiang Wu ◽  
Qian Fang ◽  
Quansheng Ge ◽  
Mengzi Zhou ◽  
Yumei Lin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Adaptive Strategies ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Rice Cultivars ◽  
Rice Yields ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Global temperatures are rising, and concerns about the response of agricultural production to climate change are increasing. Adaptation is a key factor that will shape the severity of impacts of future climate change on food production. Based on actual meteorological, soil and agricultural management data at site scale, the CERES-Rice model, combined with the Regional Climate Model (RCM)-PRECIS, was used to simulate both the effects of climate change on rice yields and the efficacy of adaptive options in Northeast China. The impact simulation showed that rice yield changes ranged from +0.1% to –44.9% (A2 scenario) and from –0.3% to –40.1% (B2 scenario) without considering CO2 fertilisation effects. When considering CO2 fertilisation effects, rice yield reductions induced by temperature increases were decreased at all sites. The CO2 fertilisation effects may partly offset the negative impacts of climate change on rice yields. Adaptive option results revealed that the adverse impacts of climate change on rice yields could be mitigated by advancing the planting dates, transplanting mid–late-maturing rice cultivars to replace early-maturing ones, and breeding new rice cultivars with high thermal requirements. Our findings provide insight into the possible impacts of climate change on rice production, and we suggest which adaptive strategies could be used to cope with future climate change, thus providing evidence-based suggestions for government policy on adaptive strategies.

scholarly journals Integrating Statistical and System Dynamics Modelling to Analyse the Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production in West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Muhamad Bahri
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Rice Varieties ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>Climate change, manifested as temperature rise and rainfall change, will pose significant challenges to rice farmers, leading to a possible rice shortage under a changing climate. This research aims to understand the impacts of climate variability and change on rice production through the rest of this century using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and combination of statistical and system dynamic modelling. The area of study is West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. Wetland and dryland farming types are assessed separately because they have different rice varieties and different agricultural practices.  Overall, the research seeks to answer the question: How will climate change and climate variability affect rice production? Additional questions investigated are (1) What are the most significant supply uncertainties associated with a changing climate? and (2) What are possible solutions for reducing the impacts of climate change on rice production?. To answer these research questions, this study deals with three main research areas. First, based on observed data (1976-2011), this study developed regression-based statistical models in understanding the impacts of climate change on rice yield in West Nusa Tenggara. Statistical models find that the negative impacts of increased minimum temperature on rice yield are statistically significant.   By contrast, the effects of maximum temperature on rice yield are not statistically significant. A key reason for this is that the highest maximum temperature (32⁰C) in the observed period (1976-2011) was lower than 35⁰C, a rice threshold for maximum temperature. By 2090 (2077-2100), rice yield in wetland and dryland is projected to decrease by about 3% (RCP2.6 scenario), 4% (RCP4.5 scenario), 5% (RCP6.0 scenario) and 14% (RCP8.5 scenario).  Second, a system dynamics model was developed to assess the impacts of climate change on three issues including rice yield, harvested areas and rice production by 2090 (2077-2100). After embedding statistical models and estimating the impacts of maximum temperature on rice yield based on existing studies, the impacts of climate change on rice yield are projected. The system dynamics model is also equipped by August SOI to estimate the impacts of climate change on the timing of monsoon onset i.e the beginning of planting seasons. For assessing harvested areas under a changing climate, the system dynamics model is equipped by a mathematical relationship between seasonal rainfall and harvested areas.  Because the system dynamics model includes the impacts of high maximum temperature, the projected loss of rice yield in wetland and dryland is relatively higher compared to that in statistical models. It is projected that rice yield loss will be about 3% (RCP2.6 scenario), 6% (RCP4.5 scenario), 10% (RCP6.0 scenario) and 23% (RCP8.5 scenario) by 2090 (2077-2100). Likewise, rice production loss in wetland and dryland is projected to be about 1% (RCP2.6 scenario), 2% (RCP4.5 scenario), 7% (RCP6.0 scenario) and 19% (RCP8.5 scenario) by 2090 (2077-2100). The projected loss of rice production is relatively lower than rice yield loss as wetland harvested areas are projected to experience a slight increase about 3% by 2090 (2077-2100) under a changing climate. This also means that the ranking of the impacts of climate change from the most significant to the least significant is its impact on rice yield, rice production and harvested areas.   Third, policy options in overcoming the impacts of climate change on rice production are assessed. This study suggests that research on finding rice varieties with three main traits: heat tolerance, short growth duration and high yield is key to balance rice demand and rice supply in West Nusa Tenggara by 2090 (2077-2100). A failure to improve rice yield in such ways is likely to lead to significant reductions in rice supply in the face of climate change.  This study makes theoretical contributions, including the development of statistical models for understanding the impacts of climate change on rice yield and a causal system for investigating the impacts of climate change on rice yield, rice production and harvested areas. Again, the combination of statistical and system dynamics modelling simultaneously investigates the impacts of climate change on rice yield, rice production and harvested areas. This means that this study provides a more holistic view of the impacts of climate change compared to existing studies.  This study also offers practical contributions, advising that declining rice research should be avoided under a changing climate, and suggesting that farming intensification (more climate-resilient rice varieties) is more effective than farming extension (area expansion) in sustaining rice production under a changing climate. Again, research on developing more resilient-climate rice varieties is possible as projected rice yield in sustaining rice production by 2090 (2077-2100) is similar to rice’s yield potential.</p>

Impacts of climate change on paddy rice yield in a temperate climate

2012 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 548-562 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han-Yong Kim ◽  
Jonghan Ko ◽  
Suchel Kang ◽  
John Tenhunen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Paddy Rice ◽  
Temperate Climate ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change
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