Abstract. Numerous studies have concluded that deforestation of mid to high latitudes result in a global cooling. This is mainly because of the increased albedo of deforested land which dominates over other biogeophysical and biogeochemical mechanisms in the energy balance. This dominance however may be due to an underestimation of the biogeochemical response, as carbon emissions are typically at or below the lower end of estimates. Here, we use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL for a better estimate of the carbon cycle under such large-scale deforestation. These studies are purely academic to understand the role of vegetation in the energy balance and the earth system. They must not be mistaken as possible mitigation options, because of the devastating effects on pristine ecosystems. We show that even optimistic assumptions on the manageability of these areas and its utilization for bioenergy crops could not make up for the strong carbon losses in connection with the losses of vegetation carbon and the long-term decline of soil carbon stocks. We find that the global biophysical bioenergy potential is 78.9 ± 7.9 EJ yr−1 of primary energy at the end of the 21st century for the most plausible scenario. Due to avoided usage of fossil fuels over the time frame of this experiment, the cooling due to the biogeophysical feedback could be supplemented by an avoided warming of approximately 0.1 to 0.3 °C. However, the extensive deforestation simulated in this study causes an immediate emission of 182.3 ± 0.7 GtC followed by long term emissions. In the most plausible scenario, this carbon debt is not neutralized even if bioenergy production is assumed to be carbon-neutral other than for the land use emissions so that global temperatures would increase by ~0.2 to 0.6 °C by the end of the 21st century. The carbon dynamics in the high latitudes, especially with respect to permafrost dynamics and long-term carbon losses, require additional attention in the role for the Earth's carbon and energy budget.
Sensitivity of the snow energy balance to climatic changes: prediction of snowpack in the Pyrenees in the 21st century