scholarly journals Tropical cyclone formation in the North Atlantic Basin, 1960-1989

1993 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 221-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
AJ Vega ◽  
MS Binkley
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Formation ◽  
North Atlantic Basin ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecasts from Global Numerical Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 1423-1445 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel J. Halperin ◽  
Henry E. Fuelberg ◽  
Robert E. Hart ◽  
Joshua H. Cossuth ◽  
Philip Sura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Global Model ◽  
Global Models ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
Consensus Forecasts ◽  
North Atlantic Basin ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts rely heavily on output from global numerical models. While considerable research has investigated the skill of various models with respect to track and intensity, few studies have considered how well global models forecast TC genesis in the North Atlantic basin. This paper analyzes TC genesis forecasts from five global models [Environment Canada's Global Environment Multiscale Model (CMC), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global model, the Global Forecast System (GFS), the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), and the Met Office global model (UKMET)] over several seasons in the North Atlantic basin. Identifying TCs in the model is based on a combination of methods used previously in the literature and newly defined objective criteria. All model-indicated TCs are classified as a hit, false alarm, early genesis, or late genesis event. Missed events also are considered. Results show that the models' ability to predict TC genesis varies in time and space. Conditional probabilities when a model predicts genesis and more traditional performance metrics (e.g., critical success index) are calculated. The models are ranked among each other, and results show that the best-performing model varies from year to year. A spatial analysis of each model identifies preferred regions for genesis, and a temporal analysis indicates that model performance expectedly decreases as forecast hour (lead time) increases. Consensus forecasts show that the probability of genesis noticeably increases when multiple models predict the same genesis event. Overall, this study provides a climatology of objectively identified TC genesis forecasts in global models. The resulting verification statistics can be used operationally to help refine deterministic and probabilistic TC genesis forecasts and potentially improve the models examined.

Seasonal Analysis of Air-Sea CO2 Flux Variability in the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paridhi Rustogi ◽  
Peter Landschuetzer ◽  
Sebastian Brune ◽  
Johanna Baehr
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Observational Data ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Seasonal Variability ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
North Atlantic Basin ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

<p>Understanding the variability and drivers of air-sea CO<span><sub>2</sub></span> fluxes on seasonal timescales is critical for resolving the ocean carbon sink's evolution and variability. Here, we investigate whether discrepancies in the representation of air-sea CO<span><sub>2</sub></span> fluxes on a seasonal timescale accumulate to influence the representation of CO<span><sub>2</sub></span> fluxes on an interannual timescale in two important ocean CO<span><sub>2 </sub></span>sink regions – the North Atlantic basin and the Southern Ocean. Using an observation-based product (SOM-FFN) as a reference, we investigate the representation of air-sea CO<span><sub>2</sub></span> fluxes in the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model Grand Ensemble (MPI-ESM GE). Additionally, we include a simulation based on the same model configuration, where observational data from the atmosphere and ocean components is assimilated (EnKF assimilation) to verify if the inclusion of observational data alters the model state significantly and if the updated modelled CO<span><sub>2 </sub></span>flux values better represent observations.</p><p>We find agreement between all three observation-based and model products on an interannual timescale for the North Atlantic basin. However, the agreement on a seasonal timescale is inconsistent with discrepancies as large as 0.26 PgC/yr in boreal autumn in the North Atlantic. In the Southern Ocean, we find little agreement between the three products on an interannual basis with significant seasonal discrepancies as large as 1.71 PgC/yr in austral winter. However, while we identify regional patterns of dominating seasonal variability in MPI-GE and EnKF, we find that the SOM-FFN cannot demonstrate robust conclusions on the relevance of seasonal variability in the Southern Ocean. In turn, we cannot pin down the problems for this region.</p>

I.—On the Eastern Margin of the North Atlantic Basin

1899 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 97-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilfrid H. Hudleston
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Physical Geography ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
Eastern Margin ◽  
North Atlantic Basin ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

In offering a few remarks on a subject which belongs, in the first instance, to the province of physical geography, it will be necessary forme to point out certain hydrographical details, whilst, endeavouring to deduce from these details conclusions having a geological bearing. Oceanography is almost a science in itself, especially if we regard it from a geological point of view, as something more than a mere description of water-spaces and soundings. Ever since the days when the deep oceans were first explored for the purpose of laying the telegraph cables some of the leading facts were made known, and have since become familiar to all students of physical geography.

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