scholarly journals Real-time Intraday Traffic Volume Forecasting – A Hybrid Application Using Singular Spectrum Analysis and Artificial Neural Networks

2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 226-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stylianos Kolidakis ◽  
George Botzoris ◽  
Vassilios Profillidis ◽  
Alexandros Kokkalis
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Traffic Volume ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Hybrid Forecasting ◽  
Toll Station

The present paper provides a comparative evaluation of hybrid Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) against conventional ANN, applied on real time intraday traffic volume forecasting. The main research objective was to assess the applicability and functionality of intraday traffic volume forecasting, based on toll station measurements. The proposed methodology was implemented and evaluated upon a custom developed forecasting software toolbox, based on the software Mathworks MatLab, by using real data from Iasmos-Greece toll station. Experimental results demonstrated a superior ex post forecasting accuracy of the proposed hybrid forecasting methodology against conventional ANN, when compared to performance of usual statistical criteria (Mean Absolute Error, Mean Squared Error, Root Mean Squared Error, Coefficient of Determination R2, Theil's inequality coefficient). The obtained results revealed that the hybrid model could advance forecasting accuracy of a conventional ANN model in intraday traffic volume forecasting, while embedding hybrid forecasting algorithm in an Intelligent Transport System could provide an advanced decision support module for transportation system maintenance, operation and management.

Artificial Neural Networks Estimation for Thicknesses of Multilayer Nano-Scale Films

2019 ◽  
Vol 962 ◽  
pp. 41-48
Author(s):  
Tzong Daw Wu ◽  
Jiun Shen Chen ◽  
Ching Pei Tseng ◽  
Cheng Chang Hsieh
Keyword(s):  
Thin Films ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Film Growth ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Thin Film Optics ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Artificial Neural

This study presents a real-time method for determining the thickness of each layer in multilayer thin films. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were introduced to estimate thicknesses from a transmittance spectrum. After training via theoretical spectra which were generated by thin-film optics and modified by noise, ANNs were applied to estimate the thicknesses of four-layer nanoscale films which were TiO2, Ag, Ti, and TiO2 thin films assembled sequentially on polyethylene terephthalate (PET) substrates. The results reveal that the mean squared error of the estimation is 2.6 nm2, and is accurate enough to monitor film growth in real time.

scholarly journals Fault diagnosis of rolling bearings using singular spectrum analysis and artificial neural networks

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 183-196
Author(s):  
Quang Thinh Tran ◽  
Kieu Nhi Ngo ◽  
Sy Dzung Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Fault Diagnosis ◽  
Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Frequency Noise ◽  
Singular Spectrum ◽  
Experimental Apparatus ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Set Up

Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) has been employed effectively for analyzing in the time-frequency domain of time series. It can collaborate with data-driven models (DDMs) such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to set up a powerful tool for mechanical fault diagnosis (MFD). However, to take advantage of SSA more effectively for MFD, quantifying the optimal component threshold in SSA should be addressed. Also, to exploit the managed mechanical system adaptively, the variation tendency of its physical parameters needs to be caught online. Here, we present a bearing fault diagnosis method (BFDM) based on ANN and SSA that targets these aspects. First, a multi-feature is built from pure mechanical properties distilled from the vibration signal of the system. Relied on SSA, the measured acceleration signal is analyzed to cancel the high-frequency noise. The remaining components take part in building a multi-feature to establish a database for training the ANN. Optimizing the number of the kept components is then carried out to obtain a dataset called Tr_Da. Based on Tr_Da, we receive the optimal ANN (OANN). In the next period, at each checking time, another database called Test_Da is set up online following the same way of building the Tr_Da. The compared result between the encoded output and the output of the OANN corresponding to the input to be Test_Da provides the bearing(s) health information. An experimental apparatus is built to evaluate the BFDM. The obtained results reflect the positive effects of the method.

scholarly journals A Comparison of Performance of Artificial Neural Networks for Prediction of Heavy Metals Concentration in Groundwater Resources of Toyserkan Plain

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 11792-11792 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meysam Alizamir ◽  
Soheil Sobhanardakani
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Metals ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Multi Layer Perceptron ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Statistical Indicators

Nowadays, about 50% the world’s population is living in dry and semi dry regions and has utilized groundwater as a source of drinking water. Therefore, forecasting of pollutant content in these regions is vital. This study was conducted to compare the performance of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for prediction of As, Zn, and Pb content in groundwater resources of Toyserkan Plain. In this study, two types of artificial neural networks (ANNs), namely multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) approaches, were examined using the observations of As, Zn, and Pb concentrations in groundwater resources of Toyserkan plain, Western Iran. Two statistical indicators, the coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean squared error (RMSE) were employed to evaluate the performances of various models. The results indicated that the best performance could be obtained by MLP, in terms of different statistical indicators during training and validation periods.

scholarly journals Estimating modulus of elasticity (MOE) of particleboards using artificial neural networks to reduce quality measurements and costs

2019 ◽  
Vol 70 (3) ◽  
pp. 257-263
Author(s):  
Rıfat Kurt ◽  
Selman Karayilmazlar
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Properties ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Modulus Of Elasticity ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Mean Absolute Deviation ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Artificial Neural

There are a large number of costs that enterprises need to bear in order to produce the same product at the same quality for a more affordable price. For this reason, enterprises have to minimize their expenses through a couple of measures in order to offer the same product for a lower price by minimizing these costs. Today, quality control and measurements constitute one of the major cost items of enterprises. In this study, the modulus of elasticity values of particleboards were estimated by using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and other mechanical properties of particleboards in order to reduce the measurement costs in particleboard enterprises. In addition to that, the future values of modulus of elasticity were also estimated using the same variables with the purpose of monitoring the state of the process. For this purpose, data regarding the mechanical properties of the boards were randomly collected from the enterprise for three months. The sample size (n) was: 6 and the number of samples (m): 65 and a total of 65 average measurement values were obtained for each mechanical property. As a result of the implementation, the low Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) performance measures of the model clearly showed that some quality characteristics could easily be estimated by the enterprises without having to make any measurements by ANN.

scholarly journals Identifying the Optimum Forecasting Horizon to Apply the Singular Spectrum Analysis on Daily Road Traffic Volume Forecasts

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 393-402
Author(s):  
Stylianos Z. Kolidakis ◽  
George N. Botzoris
Keyword(s):  
Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Traffic Volume ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Volume Data ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Singular Spectrum ◽  
Toll Station

The paper delivers an assessment of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) forecasting ability for short- and medium-term forecasting horizon, on real time traffic volume data. The key study goal is to estimate forecasting pertinency for daily traffic volume, based upon measurements at toll station. The suggested methodology is tested on real data from Moschohorion and Pelasgia Toll Station – Greece, utilizing custom developed forecasting software toolbox. Applied research results confirm an advanced forecasting ability of proposed methodology for short-term forecasting horizon against medium term forecasting horizon, when performance is compared upon the statistical criteria of the coefficient of determination R2. The obtained results present that SSA forecasting model could provide a competent forecasting methodology for road traffic volume data.

An Efficient Hybrid Forecasting Approach for Wind Speed Time Series

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Bhargavi Munnaluri ◽  
K. Ganesh Reddy
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Hybrid Forecasting ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Future Utilization

Wind forecasting is one of the best efficient ways to deal with the challenges of wind power generation. Due to the depletion of fossil fuels renewable energy sources plays a major role for the generation of power. For future management and for future utilization of power, we need to predict the wind speed.  In this paper, an efficient hybrid forecasting approach with the combination of Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Artificial Neural Networks(ANN) are proposed to improve the quality of prediction of wind speed. Due to the different parameters of wind, it is difficult to find the accurate prediction value of the wind speed. The proposed hybrid model of forecasting is examined by taking the hourly wind speed of past years data by reducing the prediction error with the help of Mean Square Error by 0.019. The result obtained from the Artificial Neural Networks improves the forecasting quality.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document