scholarly journals Public health air pollution impacts of pathway options to meet the 2050 UK Climate Change Act target: a modelling study

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (7) ◽  
pp. 1-124
Author(s):  
Martin L Williams ◽  
Sean Beevers ◽  
Nutthida Kitwiroon ◽  
David Dajnak ◽  
Heather Walton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Road Transport ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Life Years ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

BackgroundThe UK’sClimate Change Act 2008(CCA; Great Britain.Climate Change Act 2008. Chapter 27. London: The Stationery Office; 2008) requires a reduction of 80% in carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions by 2050 on a 1990 base. This project quantified the impact of air pollution on health from four scenarios involving particulate matter of ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3). Two scenarios met the CCA target: one with limited nuclear power build (nuclear replacement option; NRPO) and one with no policy constraint on nuclear (low greenhouse gas). Another scenario envisaged no further climate actions beyond those already agreed (‘baseline’) and the fourth kept 2011 concentrations constant to 2050 (‘2011’).MethodsThe UK Integrated MARKAL–EFOM System (UKTM) energy system model was used to develop the scenarios and produce projections of fuel use; these were used to produce air pollutant emission inventories for Great Britain (GB) for each scenario. The inventories were then used to run the Community Multiscale Air Quality model ‘air pollution model’ to generate air pollutant concentration maps across GB, which then, combined with relationships between concentrations and health outcomes, were used to calculate the impact on health from the air pollution emitted in each scenario. This is a significant improvement on previous health impact studies of climate policies, which have relied on emissions changes. Inequalities in exposure in different socioeconomic groups were also calculated, as was the economic impact of the pollution emissions.ResultsConcentrations of NO2declined significantly because of a high degree of electrification of the GB road transport fleet, although the NRPO scenario shows large increases in oxides of nitrogen emissions from combined heat and power (CHP) sources. Concentrations of PM2.5show a modest decrease by 2050, which would have been larger if it had not been for a significant increase in biomass (wood burning) use in the two CCA scenarios peaking in 2035. The metric quantifying long-term exposure to O3is projected to decrease, while the important short-term O3exposure metric increases. Large projected increases in future GB vehicle kilometres lead to increased non-exhaust PM2.5and particulate matter of ≤ 10 µm emissions. The two scenarios which achieve the CCA target resulted in more life-years lost from long-term exposures to PM2.5than in the baseline scenario. This is an opportunity lost and arises largely from the increase in biomass use, which is projected to peak in 2035. Reduced long-term exposures to NO2lead to many more life-years saved in the ‘CCA-compliant’ scenarios, but the association used may overestimate the effects of NO2itself. The more deprived populations are estimated currently to be exposed to higher concentrations than those less deprived, the contrast being largest for NO2. Despite reductions in concentrations in 2050, the most socioeconomically deprived are still exposed to higher concentrations than the less deprived.LimitationsModelling of the atmosphere is always uncertain; we have shown the model to be acceptable through comparison with observations. The necessary complexity of the modelling system has meant that only a small number of scenarios were run.ConclusionsWe have established a system which can be used to explore a wider range of climate policy scenarios, including more European and global scenarios as well as local measures. Future work could explore wood burning in more detail, in terms of the sectors in which it might be burned and the spatial distribution of this across the UK. Further analyses of options for CHP could also be explored. Non-exhaust emissions from road transport are an important source of particles and emission factors are uncertain. Further research on this area coupled with our modelling would be a valuable area of research.FundingThe National Institute for Health Research Public Health Research programme.

scholarly journals Gender Differences in Association between Air Pollution and Daily Mortality in the Capital of the Green Lungs of Poland–Population-Based Study with 2,953,000 Person-Years of Follow-Up

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 2351
Author(s):  
Łukasz Kuźma ◽  
Krzysztof Struniawski ◽  
Szymon Pogorzelski ◽  
Hanna Bachórzewska-Gajewska ◽  
Sławomir Dobrzycki
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Gender Differences ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
World Health ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Daily Mortality ◽  
Male Population ◽  
The Impact

(1) Introduction: air pollution is considered to be one of the main risk factors for public health. According to the European Environment Agency (EEA), air pollution contributes to the premature deaths of approximately 500,000 citizens of the European Union (EU), including almost 5000 inhabitants of Poland every year. (2) Purpose: to assess the gender differences in the impact of air pollution on the mortality in the population of the city of Bialystok—the capital of the Green Lungs of Poland. (3) Materials and Methods: based on the data from the Central Statistical Office, the number—and causes of death—of Białystok residents in the period 2008–2017 were analyzed. The study utilized the data recorded by the Provincial Inspectorate for Environmental Protection station and the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management during the analysis period. Time series regression with Poisson distribution was used in statistical analysis. (4) Results: A total of 34,005 deaths had been recorded, in which women accounted for 47.5%. The proportion of cardiovascular-related deaths was 48% (n = 16,370). An increase of SO2 concentration by 1-µg/m3 (relative risk (RR) 1.07, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.12; p = 0.005) and a 10 °C decrease of temperature (RR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.05; p = 0.005) were related to an increase in the number of daily deaths. No gender differences in the impact of air pollution on mortality were observed. In the analysis of the subgroup of cardiovascular deaths, the main pollutant that was found to have an effect on daily mortality was particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM2.5); the RR for 10-µg/m3 increase of PM2.5 was 1.07 (95% CI 1.02–1.12; p = 0.01), and this effect was noted only in the male population. (5) Conclusions: air quality and atmospheric conditions had an impact on the mortality of Bialystok residents. The main air pollutant that influenced the mortality rate was SO2, and there were no gender differences in the impact of this pollutant. In the male population, an increased exposure to PM2.5 concentration was associated with significantly higher cardiovascular mortality. These findings suggest that improving air quality, in particular, even with lower SO2 levels than currently allowed by the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines, may benefit public health. Further studies on this topic are needed, but our results bring questions whether the recommendations concerning acceptable concentrations of air pollutants should be stricter, or is there a safe concentration of SO2 in the air at all.

scholarly journals As the Wind Blows: The Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution on Mortality

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1886-1927 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael L Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Los Angeles ◽  
Infant Health ◽  
Short Form ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Significant Loss ◽  
Adult Health ◽  
Life Years ◽  
The Impact

Abstract There is strong evidence that short-run fluctuations in air pollution negatively impact infant health and contemporaneous adult health, but there is less evidence on the causal link between long-term exposure to air pollution and increased adult mortality. This project estimates the impact of long-term exposure to air pollution on mortality by leveraging quasi-random variation in pollution levels generated by wind patterns near major highways. I combine geocoded data on the residence of every decedent in Los Angeles over three years, high-frequency wind data, and Census short form data. Using these data, I estimate the effect of downwind exposure to highway-generated pollutants on the age-specific mortality rate by using orientation to the nearest major highway as an instrument for pollution exposure. I find that doubling the percentage of time spent downwind of a highway increases mortality among individuals 75 or older by 3.8%–6.5%. These estimates are robust and imply significant loss of life years.

scholarly journals European atmosphere in 2050, a regional air quality and climate perspective under CMIP5 scenarios

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 7451-7471 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Colette ◽  
B. Bessagnet ◽  
R. Vautard ◽  
S. Szopa ◽  
S. Rao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Pollutant Emissions ◽  
Reference Scenario ◽  
Regional Air Quality ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. To quantify changes in air pollution over Europe at the 2050 horizon, we designed a comprehensive modelling system that captures the external factors considered to be most relevant, and that relies on up-to-date and consistent sets of air pollution and climate policy scenarios. Global and regional climate as well as global chemistry simulations are based on the recent representative concentration pathways (RCP) produced for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) whereas regional air quality modelling is based on the updated emissions scenarios produced in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment. We explored two diverse scenarios: a reference scenario where climate policies are absent and a mitigation scenario which limits global temperature rise to within 2 °C by the end of this century. This first assessment of projected air quality and climate at the regional scale based on CMIP5 (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate simulations is in line with the existing literature using CMIP3. The discrepancy between air quality simulations obtained with a climate model or with meteorological reanalyses is pointed out. Sensitivity simulations show that the main factor driving future air quality projections is air pollutant emissions, rather than climate change or intercontinental transport of pollution. Whereas the well documented "climate penalty" that weights upon ozone (increase of ozone pollution with global warming) over Europe is confirmed, other features appear less robust compared to the literature, such as the impact of climate on PM2.5. The quantitative disentangling of external factors shows that, while several published studies focused on the climate penalty bearing upon ozone, the contribution of the global ozone burden is somewhat overlooked in the literature.

Hybrid Unsupervised Modeling of Air Pollution Impact to Cardiovascular and Respiratory Diseases

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 13-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lazaros Iliadis ◽  
Vardis-Dimitris Anezakis ◽  
Konstantinos Demertzis ◽  
Georgios Mallinis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Respiratory Diseases ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Pollutant Concentrations ◽  
Chi Square Test ◽  
The Impact

During the last few decades, climate change has increased air pollutant concentrations with a direct and serious effect on population health in urban areas. This research introduces a hybrid computational intelligence approach, employing unsupervised machine learning (UML), in an effort to model the impact of extreme air pollutants on cardiovascular and respiratory diseases of citizens. The system is entitled Air Pollution Climate Change Cardiovascular and Respiratory (APCCCR) and it combines the fuzzy chi square test (FUCS) with the UML self organizing maps algorithm. A major innovation of the system is the determination of the direct impact of air pollution (or of the indirect impact of climate change) to the health of the people, in a comprehensive manner with the use of fuzzy linguistics. The system has been applied and tested thoroughly with spatiotemporal data for the Thessaloniki urban area for the period 2004-2013.

scholarly journals COVID-19 compassion in self-isolating old age: looking forward from family to regional and global concerns

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 229-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Douglas
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Young Women ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Urban Nature ◽  
Public Health Services ◽  
Local Public Health ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Funding Cuts

Abstract Self-isolating with my wife, I feel gratitude and compassion for all those supporting us, particularly those who regularly deliver our food and our immediate family members who check on us frequently. My compassion goes out to those on the “frontline”, particularly my niece and her daughter who are both nurses in a major hospital and who developed and recovered from COVID-19 symptoms. More broadly, I recognise that there are many communities that have had to cope with both geophysical and socio-politically created disasters while facing the COVID-19 pandemic, among then some young women bee-keepers in Uganda. In the UK context, I have great concern that severe funding cuts for regional and local public health services and disaster planning handicapped the country’s response to coronavirus and may have been a factor in the UK’s high coronavirus death rate. I see both positive and negative changes in air pollution and urban nature in our towns and cities, but also am concerned that we collectively may lose sight of the greater crises of climate change and species extinction. We have to work for a better future by taking forward the opportunities and lessons from our reactions to the pandemic. This leads to compassion for the yet unborn, our grandchildren’s children, who might enter a less habitable, more unequal less collaborative world than the imperfect one we now enjoy.

scholarly journals Green Deal as a Climate Changes Dam on the Road to Health

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Jevtic ◽  
C Bouland
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Circular Economy ◽  
Clinical Medicine ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Road ◽  
National Public Health ◽  
On The Road ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Public health professionals (PHP) have a dual task in climate change. They should persuade their colleagues in clinical medicine of the importance of all the issues covered by the GD. The fact that the health sector contributes to the overall emissions of 4.4% speaks to the lack of awareness within the health sector itself. The issue of providing adequate infrastructure for the health sector is essential. Strengthening the opportunities and development of the circular economy within healthcare is more than just a current issue. The second task of PHP is targeting the broader population. The public health mission is being implemented, inter alia, through numerous activities related to environmental monitoring and assessment of the impact on health. GD should be a roadmap for priorities and actions in public health, bearing in mind: an ambitious goal of climate neutrality, an insistence on clean, affordable and safe energy, a strategy for a clean and circular economy. GD provides a framework for the development of sustainable and smart transport, the development of green agriculture and policies from field to table. It also insists on biodiversity conservation and protection actions. The pursuit of zero pollution and an environment free of toxic chemicals, as well as incorporating sustainability into all policies, is also an indispensable part of GD. GD represents a leadership step in the global framework towards a healthier future and comprises all the non-EU members as well. The public health sector should consider the GD as an argument for achieving goals at national levels, and align national public health policies with the goals of this document. There is a need for stronger advocacy of health and public-health interests along with incorporating sustainability into all policies. Achieving goals requires the education process for healthcare professionals covering all of topics of climate change, energy and air pollution to a much greater extent than before.

scholarly journals Emotional and Mental Wellbeing Following COVID-19 Public Health Measures on People Living With Dementia and Carers

2021 ◽  
pp. 089198872199681
Author(s):  
Kerry Hanna ◽  
Clarissa Giebel ◽  
Hilary Tetlow ◽  
Kym Ward ◽  
Justine Shenton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mental Health ◽  
Social Support ◽  
Support Services ◽  
Mental Wellbeing ◽  
Daily Lives ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Social Support Services ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Background: To date, there appears to be no evidence on the longer-term impacts caused by COVID-19 and its related public health restrictions on some of the most vulnerable in our societies. The aim of this research was to explore the change in impact of COVID-19 public health measures on the mental wellbeing of people living with dementia (PLWD) and unpaid carers. Method: Semi-structured, follow-up telephone interviews were conducted with PLWD and unpaid carers between June and July 2020. Participants were asked about their experiences of accessing social support services during the pandemic, and the impact of restrictions on their daily lives. Results: 20 interviews were conducted and thematically analyzed, which produced 3 primary themes concerning emotional responses and impact to mental health and wellbeing during the course of the pandemic: 1) Impact on mental health during lockdown, 2) Changes to mental health following easing of public health, and 3) The long-term effect of public health measures. Conclusions: The findings from this research shed light on the longer-term psychological impacts of the UK Government’s public health measures on PLWD and their carers. The loss of social support services was key in impacting this cohort mentally and emotionally, displaying a need for better psychological support, for both carers and PLWD.

Long-Term Exposure to PM2.5 and Cognitive Decline: A Longitudinal Population-Based Study

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Giulia Grande ◽  
Jing Wu ◽  
Petter L.S. Ljungman ◽  
Massimo Stafoggia ◽  
Tom Bellander ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Cognitive Decline ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Cerebrovascular Diseases ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
National Study ◽  
Piecewise Regression ◽  
Risk Increase ◽  
Restricted Cubic Splines

Background: A growing but contrasting evidence relates air pollution to cognitive decline. The role of cerebrovascular diseases in amplifying this risk is unclear. Objectives: 1) Investigate the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and cognitive decline; 2) Test whether cerebrovascular diseases amplify this association. Methods: We examined 2,253 participants of the Swedish National study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (SNAC-K). One major air pollutant (particulate matter ≤2.5μm, PM2.5) was assessed yearly from 1990, using dispersion models for outdoor levels at residential addresses. The speed of cognitive decline (Mini-Mental State Examination, MMSE) was estimated as the rate of MMSE decline (linear mixed models) and further dichotomized into the upper (25%fastest cognitive decline), versus the three lower quartiles. The cognitive scores were used to calculate the odds of fast cognitive decline per levels of PM2.5 using regression models and considering linear and restricted cubic splines of 10 years exposure before the baseline. The potential modifier effect of cerebrovascular diseases was tested by adding an interaction term in the model. Results: We observed an inverted U-shape relationship between PM2.5 and cognitive decline. The multi-adjusted piecewise regression model showed an increased OR of fast cognitive decline of 81%(95%CI = 1.2–3.2) per interquartile range difference up to mean PM2.5 level (8.6μg/m3) for individuals older than 80. Above such level we observed no further risk increase (OR = 0.89;95%CI = 0.74–1.06). The presence of cerebrovascular diseases further increased such risk by 6%. Conclusion: Low to mean PM2.5 levels were associated with higher risk of accelerated cognitive decline. Cerebrovascular diseases further amplified such risk.

scholarly journals 13.D. Workshop: SDGs in the focus of environmental and health issues

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Community Engagement ◽  
Health Professionals ◽  
Health Issues ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
The World ◽  
Environmental And Health Issues ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This workshop is dedicated on SDGs in the focus of environmental and health issues, as very important and actual topic. One of the characteristics of today's societies is the significant availability of modern technologies. Over 5 billion (about 67%) people have a cellphone today. More than 4.5 billion people worldwide use the Internet, close to 60% of the total population. At the same time, one third of the people in the world does not have access to safe drinking water and half of the population does not have access to safe sanitation. The WHO at UN warns of severe inequalities in access to water and hygiene. Air, essential to life, is a leading risk due to ubiquitous pollution and contributes to the global disease burden (7 million deaths per year). Air pollution is a consequence of traffic and industry, but also of demographic trends and other human activities. Food availability reflects global inequality, famine eradication being one of the SDGs. The WHO warns of the urgency. As technology progresses, social inequality grows, the gap widens, and the environment continues to suffer. Furthermore, the social environment in societies is “ruffled” and does not appear to be beneficial toward well-being. New inequalities are emerging in the availability of technology, climate change, education. The achievement reports on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), also point out to the need of reviewing individual indicators. According to the Sustainable Development Agenda, one of the goals is to reduce inequalities, and environmental health is faced by several specific goals. The Global Burden of Disease is the most comprehensive effort to date to measure epidemiological levels and trends worldwide. It is the product of a global research collaborative and quantifies the impact of hundreds of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in countries around the world. This workshop will also discuss Urban Health as a Complex System in the light of SDGs. Climate Change, Public Health impacts and the role of the new digital technologies is also important topic which is contributing to SDG3, improving health, to SDG4, allowing to provide distance health education at relatively low cost and to SDG 13, by reducing the CO2 footprint. Community Engagement can both empower vulnerable populations (so reducing inequalities) and identify the prior environmental issues to be addressed. The aim was to search for public health programs using Community Engagement tools in healthy environment building towards achievement of SDGs. Key messages Health professionals are involved in the overall process of transformation necessary to achieve the SDGs. Health professionals should be proactive and contribute to the transformation leading to better health for the environment, and thus for the human population.

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