scholarly journals The impact of macroeconomic factors on real estate prices

2019 ◽  
Vol 70 (4) ◽  
pp. 603-626 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milena Radonjić ◽  
Vladimir Đurišić ◽  
Sunčica Rogić ◽  
Andrija Đurović
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Price Trends ◽  
Real Estate Prices ◽  
The Impact

The real estate market, as one of the most volatile economic sectors, is a key research topic for many authors. Regardless the significance of this topic, no previous research has been conducted to evaluate the factors which influence the price of real estate in Montenegro. Therefore, the objective of this study is to clarify whether the trend in real estate prices in Montenegro can be explained by macroeconomic fundamentals such as GDP, the inflation rate, interest rates on mortgages, take-up of mortgages, the unemployment rate, the average net salary, the current account deficit and constructing activity and to determine which of them is the most important in explaining the price trend for this market. The applied methodology is based on the model averaging technique, which has not been used in previous research on this topic; it enables the research to focus on the relevant results despite the short time series and the large number of independent variables. The results obtained point to the fact that price trends in real estate are best described by and most closely align to GDP. Apart from GDP, net salary, the unemployment rate as well as the take-up of mortgages and their interest rates are shown to be significant as variables, which determine price trends within the real estate market.

scholarly journals Twenty Years of Mortgage Banking in Slovakia

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 56
Author(s):  
Eva Horvatova
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Real Estate Prices ◽  
Analysis Models

Mortgage banking began to develop in Slovakia after 1998 as an ambitious project, the goal of which was to elevate the lagging development of the real estate market, the development of the financial market and the creation of banks’ long-term resources. Our goal is a comprehensive assessment of the development of Slovak mortgage banking for the past 20 years from the perspectives of the development of banking, the mortgage bond market, the real estate market and selected interactions between individual elements of the mortgage system. The specific aim of the study is to evaluate the substantial links between the basic economic indicators, indicators of housing finance and real estate prices in Slovakia. To evaluate these issues VAR (Vector Autoregression) models, models of panel and linear regression and DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) models were used. Slovakia has specific indicators of the development of mortgage banking, adequate to its historical and economic development. It was confirmed that the availability of real estate loans had a significant impact on the increase in real estate prices. Real estate prices in Bratislava have different development factors than real estate prices from a nationwide perspective. Low interest rates have an important role in housing financing. The second part of the study is oriented towards an evaluation of the technical efficiency of individual banks. The results of DEA point out that the largest banks in Slovakia were the most efficient in the pre-crisis year 2007. The overall results show that policymakers should react not only to the household indebtedness rate and risks for individual clients, but should also see the risks for banks in possible changes in the real estate market, or the risks of changes in interest rates in the future.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Applicability of Statistical Methods in Studies on Price Dynamics on the Real Estate Market

2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Kokot ◽  
Marcin Bas
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Price Dynamics ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Transaction Prices ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Real Estate Prices

Abstract The specific character of the real estate market is the reason why observations of transaction prices seen as statistical variables are taken in a non-standard way. In the traditional approach each time period or specific moments of time are attributed with one observation of a studied variable per one object. In the case of the real estate market, this is not possible since transactions relate to different objects, i.e., properties, and occur at irregular, or even random, moments. This is why traditional methods used to examine the dynamics of economic phenomena must be adapted to specific conditions on the real estate market. Keeping that in mind, the aim of this paper is to adapt classical statistical examination methods of dynamics to specific conditions of the real estate market followed by the actual examination of the dynamics of real estate prices in three sub-segments of the housing market in Szczecin. On its basis, the authors evaluate various methods of examining real estate price dynamics in terms of their applicability in real estate appraisal procedures and, in a broader perspective, present characteristic phenomena that can be observed on the real estate market.

scholarly journals Use of Statistical Models for Simulating Transactions on the Real Estate Market

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 102-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Radosław Cellmer ◽  
Katarzyna Szczepankowska
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Transaction Prices ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Real Estate Prices

Abstract The regularities and relations between real estate prices and the factors that shape them may be presented in the form of statistical models, thanks to which the diagnosis and prediction of prices is possible. A formal description of empirical observation presented in the form of regressive models also offers a possibility for creating certain phenomena in a virtual dimension. Market phenomena cannot be fully described with the use of determinist models, which clarify only a part of price variation. The predicted price is, in this situation, a special case of implementing a random function. Assuming that other implementations are also possible, regressive models may constitute a basis for simulation, which results in the procurement of a future image of the market. Simulation may refer both to real estate prices and transaction prices. The basis for price simulation may be familiarity with the structure of the analyzed market data. Assuming that this structure has a static character, simulation of real estate prices is performed on the basis of familiarity with the probability distribution and a generator of random numbers. The basis for price simulation is familiarity with model parameters and probability distribution of the random factor. The study presents the core and theoretical description of a transaction simulation on the real estate market, as well as the results of an experiment regarding transaction prices of office real estate located within the area of the city of Olsztyn. The result of the study is a collection of virtual real properties with known features and simulated prices, constituting a reflection of market processes which may take place in the near future. Comparison between the simulated characteristic and actual transactions in turn allows the correctness of the description of reality by the model to be verified.

scholarly journals The use of mean values for reporting real estate prices

2021 ◽  
Vol 64 (04) ◽  
pp. 513-532
Author(s):  
Melita Ulbl ◽  
Andraž Muhič
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Special Challenge ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Real Estate Prices ◽  
The One

The proper and unambiguous reporting of the real estate market is one of the main requirements for ensuring its transparency. Reporting on the prices of real estate realised on the market is a special challenge here. For this purpose, averages are generally used, requiring both the reporter and the reader to be well acquainted with the rules of individual types of averages on the one hand and the specificities and heterogeneity of the real estate market on the other. In this paper, we present the specifics of individual mean values that can be used for this purpose. These characteristics are analysed in more detail and presented in the case of the Slovenian housing market. The purpose of this paper is to present the dilemmas faced in Slovenia when reporting on real estate prices on the market and present the solutions that the Surveying and Mapping Authority of the Republic of Slovenia will begin to introduce in its reports on the real estate market.

scholarly journals ПОЛІТИКА ЧЕСЬКОГО НАЦІОНАЛЬНОГО БАНКУ ЩОДО РИНКУ НЕРУХОМОСТІ

2021 ◽  
pp. 70-75
Author(s):  
Олександр Володимирович Києвич
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

Nowadays, when we still see the impact of COVID not only in the Czech Republic, but all over the world, when the value of money is constantly decreasing due to inflation and negative trends in the economy, people usually try to save their savings where they are confident that they will not lose value. The purpose of the article is to characterize the policy of the Czech National Bank in relation to the real estate market. Research hypothesis. The population of the Czech Republic now perceives housing as a safe haven and protects their savings by buying real estate. That is why, according to practicing economists, the great interest of Czechs in investing in real estate will continue in the coming years. Presentation of the main material. Wealthy people in the Czech Republic are now investing their money in apartments to protect their savings from inflation, which was largely fueled by covid restrictions. Rising inflation and volatility in world currencies is a serious blow to those who keep their savings in cash, so people want to own any asset that has any hope of going up. Originality and practical significance of the research. It has been proven that overheated markets sometimes collapse with dire consequences for a country's economy. And this is the responsibility of the regulators, who must anticipate and prevent such trends in the markets. Conclusions and prospects for further research. The current situation with the pandemic has not affected the real estate market, which is perhaps surprising. The population of the Czech Republic now perceives housing as a safe haven and protects their savings by buying real estate. The main task today of all financial market regulators, not only in the Czech Republic, but all over the world, is and will be the task of preventing a sharp collapse of the formed bubbles, including the real estate market.

scholarly journals Early effects of theCOVID_19 pandemic on the real estate market in Georgia

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (02) ◽  
pp. 58-65
Author(s):  
Natia Terterashvili Natia Terterashvili
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
State Regulation ◽  
Recent Experience ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Crisis Situation ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Early Effects ◽  
The Impact

The article analyzes the early effects of the COVID_19 pandemic on the Georgian real estate market. There are studies examining the impact of health deterioration and pandemic shocks on housing markets. Based on the analysis of the economic consequences caused by similar events in the past and the tools of state regulation in a crisis situation, parallels are drawn with the modern Covid pandemic. In studying the crisis situation in the real estate market, we also rely on the experience of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008, which is most often associated with the current situation. The research is mainly based on the data of the Georgian Public Registry on the real estate market, which is updated by months. The article also discusses the role and importance of government decision-making in the development business, which has helped the real estate market to some extent. Crises are particularly damaging to the construction and real estate sectors, but we also expect that the real estate market will recover rapidly with the lifting of restrictions. This is based on the recent experience of Georgia, in particular, our simultaneous analysis of the results of the first wave of the COVID_19 pandemic. The situation was different during the crisis of 2007-2008, which was accompanied by war with Russia. Then the turn over of the construction sector decreased by 12% per year and it took about three years for the market to fully recover. At the same time, before 2008, the prices in the real estate market were very high, which confirmed the existence of a real estate "bubble". In modern conditions, it is difficult to talk about the existence of a "bubble", because before the pandemic real estate prices were balanced and stable. This fact allows for additional optimism. The paper summarizes the main findings, identifies all the challenges the market are facing and also provides relevant recommendations for market participants. Keywords: COVID_19 pandemic, Real Estate, Crisis, development business, State regulations.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF PRICING FACTORS IN REAL ESTATE MARKET

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-85
Author(s):  
Maria Chernyshova ◽  
Arina Malenkaya ◽  
Tatyana Mezhuyeva
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Physical Factors ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Pricing Factors ◽  
Real Estate Prices

In the real estate market price depends on supply and demand is formed under the influence of social, economic and physical factors. The article presents the results of the analysis of pricing factors in the real estate market, the forecast of real estate prices in 2019.

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