scholarly journals Analysis of Indonesian and Chinese Garlic Volatility Prices

2019 ◽  
pp. 197-207
Author(s):  
Marina Ayuningtyas ◽  
Sri Hartoyo ◽  
Sri Mulatsih
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
World Market ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Price Uncertainty ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Price Data ◽  
The World

The need for garlic consumption in Indonesia tends to increase without being matched by increased production, which causes Indonesia to import garlic by 95 percent of total domestic needs. Garlic imports tend to increase, causing the price of local garlic to be higher than the price of imported garlic, so consumers prefer imported garlic products over local garlic products. This causes farmers to face the risk of uncertainty (unpredictable) on prices, where price fluctuations are difficult to predict. In order to cope with price fluctuations and to maintain food price stability that remains accessible to consumers, it is necessary to conduct research on the analysis of the price volatility of garlic, so that price uncertainty can be overcome. This study aims to analyze price volatility in the garlic market in Indonesia and China using time series price data between January 2012 and September 2019. The method used is the ARCH/GARCH model. The results showed price volatility at producer level, imported garlic retailers, and the world market (China).

Priorities of the Monetary Policy of Russia in 2019–2021

Auditor ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 3-9
Author(s):  
Е. Смирнов ◽  
E. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Adverse Events ◽  
World Market ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
The World

Th e monetary policy of Russia for the three years of 2019–2021 provides for the maintenance of price stability, i.e. consistently low infl ation with any adverse events on the world market, including anti-Russian sanctions.

scholarly journals Statistical Analysis of New Zealand Electricity Prices: A Risk Manager's Perspective

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Caroline Moy
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Electricity Price ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Sarima Model ◽  
Price Data ◽  
Risk Manager

<p>This thesis considers the conventional SARIMA model and the EVT-GARCH model for forecasting electricity prices. However, we find that these models do not adequately capture the important characteristics of the electricity price data. A new model is developed, the EVT-SARIMA model, for forecasting electricity prices which is found to be the best at modelling the nature of the electricity prices. A time series of half-hourly electricity price data from the Hayward node in New Zealand is transformed into a daily average price series and using this resulting series, appropriate models are fitted for estimating and forecasting.  The new EVT-SARIMA model is used to simulate 1000 time series of daily electricity prices, over a 90 day period, to consider strategies for managing the risk associated with price volatility. The effects of different financial instruments on the cumulative distribution functions of predicted revenue obtained using our model are considered. Results suggest that different contracts have different effects on the predicted revenue. However, all contracts have the effect of reducing variability in the predicted revenue values and thus, should be used by a risk manager to reduce the range of probable revenue values. The quantity traded and which contracts to use is dependent on the objectives of the risk manager.</p>

scholarly journals A Comparison of World and Domestic Price Volatilities of Oilseeds: The Ethiopian Case

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (2(J)) ◽  
pp. 145-161
Author(s):  
Zerihun G. Kelbore
Keyword(s):  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
World Market ◽  
Domestic Market ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The World ◽  
Price Risks ◽  
The Government

This study investigates and compares oilseeds price volatilities in the world market and the Ethiopian market. It uses a monthly time series data on oilseeds from February 1999 to December 2012; and analyses price volatilities using unconditional method (standard deviation) and conditional method (GARCH). The results indicate that oilseeds prices are more volatile, but not persistent, in the domestic market than the world market. The magnitude of the influence of the news about past volatility (innovations) is higher in the domestic market for Rapeseed and in the World market for Linseed. However, in both markets there is a problem of volatility clustering. The study also identified that due to the financial crisis the world market price volatilities surpassed and/or paralleled the higher domestic oilseeds price volatilities. The higher domestic oilseeds price volatility may imply that the price risks are high in the domestic oilseeds market. As extreme price volatility influences farmers` production decision, they may opt to other less risky, low-value and less profitable crop varieties. The implications of such retreat is that it may keep the farmers in the traditional farming and impede their transformation to the high value crops, and results in lower income hindering the poverty reduction efforts of the government. This is more important to consider today than was before, because measures undertaken to reduce poverty must bring sustainable change in the lives of the rural poor. For this reason, agricultural policies that enable farmers cope with price risks and enhance their productivity are crucial.

scholarly journals Food Price Volatility and Asymmetries in Rural Areas of South Mediterranean Countries: A Copula-Based GARCH Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (16) ◽  
pp. 5855 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian Capitanio ◽  
Giorgia Rivieccio ◽  
Felice Adinolfi
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Food Price ◽  
System Structure ◽  
World Population ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Mediterranean Countries ◽  
The World

Many discussions following the 2007/08 food price crisis have revolved around the magnitude of the negative impacts that it may have had on food security worldwide. In South-Eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMC), food security is strongly interrelated with several key economic and political issues. Many of these countries are becoming increasingly import-dependent, particularly on cereals, which are the essential raw material for human and animal food and feed. Due to both their economic system structure and consumption, the SEMC are responsible for a third of world cereals imports, whereas they account for only 5% of the world population. Given the set of constraints and this dependence on global markets, SEMC will be probably more exposed to severe swings in agricultural commodity prices in the coming years. In this view, this study examines the dependence structure among global food grain markets and Morocco and provides flexible models for dependency and the conditional volatility GARCH. A copula-based GARCH model has been carried out to estimate the marginal distributions of Morocco and world cereals commodity price changes. The results revealed that the joint co-movement between agricultural commodity price changes around the world and in Morocco, are generally considerable and there exists asymmetric tail dependence.

scholarly journals HOW DO GOVERNMENTS RESPOND TO FOOD PRICE SPIKES? LESSONS FROM THE PAST

2010 ◽  
Vol 01 (02) ◽  
pp. 265-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
KYM ANDERSON ◽  
SIGNE NELGEN
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Government Intervention ◽  
International Markets ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Food Markets ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
The Past ◽  
Domestic Prices

Food prices in international markets spiked upward in 2008, doubling or more in a matter of months. Evidence is still being compiled on policy responses over the following two years, but new time series estimates of government intervention for the previous five decades allow insights into past policy responses to price fluctuations and spikes. This paper reviews the distortionary impacts of policies used by governments attempting to stabilize their domestic food markets. It then focuses on policy responses in the mid-1970s, as reflected in domestic prices and various annual indicators of distortions to producer and consumer incentives, before drawing out some policy lessons.

scholarly journals Statistical Analysis of New Zealand Electricity Prices: A Risk Manager's Perspective

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Caroline Moy
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Electricity Price ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Electricity Prices ◽  
Sarima Model ◽  
Price Data ◽  
Risk Manager

<p>This thesis considers the conventional SARIMA model and the EVT-GARCH model for forecasting electricity prices. However, we find that these models do not adequately capture the important characteristics of the electricity price data. A new model is developed, the EVT-SARIMA model, for forecasting electricity prices which is found to be the best at modelling the nature of the electricity prices. A time series of half-hourly electricity price data from the Hayward node in New Zealand is transformed into a daily average price series and using this resulting series, appropriate models are fitted for estimating and forecasting.  The new EVT-SARIMA model is used to simulate 1000 time series of daily electricity prices, over a 90 day period, to consider strategies for managing the risk associated with price volatility. The effects of different financial instruments on the cumulative distribution functions of predicted revenue obtained using our model are considered. Results suggest that different contracts have different effects on the predicted revenue. However, all contracts have the effect of reducing variability in the predicted revenue values and thus, should be used by a risk manager to reduce the range of probable revenue values. The quantity traded and which contracts to use is dependent on the objectives of the risk manager.</p>

scholarly journals FOOD PRICE VOLATILITY IN UKRAINE

2020 ◽  
pp. 49-57
Author(s):  
Anna Yahodzinska
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Food Price ◽  
The State ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
National Report ◽  
The World ◽  
Development Goals

Purpose. The aim of the article is to establish the level of food price volatility in Ukraine in order to develop national and regional food security programs in the framework of the 2030 sustainable development goals. Methodology of research. The theoretical basis of the study are the fundamental provisions of the food system, modern economic theory, which defines the goals and patterns of sustainable development of the world and Ukraine, scientific works of domestic and foreign scientists on food security, public administration and legislative settlement of this problem. The methodological basis of the study is the dialectical method and general and special methods of scientific knowledge. The following methods of economic research are used in the research process: abstract and logical (formation of principles, theoretical generalizations and conclusions); monographic (study of experience in food security); system analysis (determination of causal relationships); elementary-theoretical analysis and synthesis (establishment of patterns of development). Also in the process of research statistical methods are used: comparison, graphical and index. Using these methods, the state and dynamics of indicators of price fluctuations for food in Ukraine as a whole and in terms of territorial and administrative units, their economic and social consequences are analysed. The information base of the study is legislative and regulatory acts and program documents of state bodies of Ukraine and EU countries, official materials of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, methodical and statistical materials of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and relevant services and institutions of other countries, scientific information from the world computer network Internet (research results of international organizations and FAO), the results of personal research of the author. Scientific work is based on the Agenda in the field of sustainable development "Ukraine 2016-2030". Findings. It is proved that if the established trends are maintained, it will not be possible to reach the target set in the National Report 2017 “Sustainable Development Goals: Ukraine” of CSW2 at consumer prices for food by 2030. In addition, the forecast values according to actual data significantly exceed the target. Originality. For the first time in Ukraine, the study is conducted on the basis of the indicators of the National Report 2017 "Sustainable Development Goals: Ukraine" in accordance with the identified objectives of CSW2, linking the results with the ability to achieve specific sustainable development goals – to reduce food price volatility. Practical value. Reducing food price volatility will have positive consequences for all actors in the food chain: consumers, producers and the state. Key words: volatility, index, price, food, Sustainable Development Goals, Ukraine.

China und Lateinamerika

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (142) ◽  
pp. 113-126
Author(s):  
Enrique Dussel Peters
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
World Market ◽  
Global Integration ◽  
Integration Process ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
The World ◽  
New Challenges

China's socioeconomic accumulation in the last 30 years has been probably one of the most outstanding global developments and has resulted in massive new challenges for core and periphery countries. The article examines how China's rapid and massive integration to the world market has posed new challenges for countries such as Mexico - and most of Latin America - as a result of China's successful exportoriented industrialization. China's accumulation and global integration process does, however, not only question and challenges the export-possibilities in the periphery, but also the global inability to provide energy in the medium term.

TRENDS OF THE WORLD MARKET FOODNET

2020 ◽  
pp. 116-119
Author(s):  
O.N. Mikhaylyuk ◽  
Ya.N. Dolina ◽  
E.A. Strelka
Keyword(s):  
World Market ◽  
The World
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document