scholarly journals Volatility and Transmission of Shallot Commodity Prices in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
pp. 50-61
Author(s):  
Kholifatin Artika ◽  
Muhammad Firdaus ◽  
Tony Irawan
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
High Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Strategic Issue ◽  
The Government

The shallot commodity has been becoming a strategic issue for the government nowadays because this commodity has contributed to inflation. The price volatility of shallots causes high price disparities between producers and consumers. This situation gives is detrimental more to farmers and consumers than to traders because it provides more opportunities for traders to manipulate information on price, so that price transmission becomes asymmetric. This paper discusses the price transmission of shallots between three players: farmers, wholesalers and retailers. This study used daily data from January 1st 2017 to December 31st 2017 which were analyzed using the ECM-EG method. The wald test results show that shallots commodities showed a price asymmetry in the short term in each marketing chain, namely between producers to wholesalers, wholesalers to retail and retail to producers. Whereas in the long run, the price asymmetry only exist on the wholesale-retail linkage. Meanwhile the transmission of long-term prices between producers to wholesalers, retail to producers in the long-term is symmetrical.

scholarly journals Analisis Volatilitas Harga dan Integrasi Pasar Kedelai Indonesia dengan Pasar Kedelai Dunia

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ratna Anita Carolina ◽  
Sri Mulatsih ◽  
Lukytawati Anggraeni
Keyword(s):  
Market Integration ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Soybean Price ◽  
Volatility Analysis ◽  
The Government

<strong>English</strong><br />The government is necessary to maintain food price stability in order to support food security in the country. This study aims to analyze domestic (local and imported) soybean prices volatility, and analyze the market integration and the price transmission elasticity that occurs between domestic soybean market and world soybean market. Price volatility analysis using ARCH/GARCH models showed that the world soybean price is more volatile than domestic soybean price, while in domestic market, local soybean price showed more volatility than imported price. Ravallion model was used to analyze market integration and price transmission between world and domestic soybean markets. The result showed that there is no short term market integration, but there exist the long term market integration with a weak price transmission between world and domestic soybean market. <br /><br /><strong>Indonesia</strong><br />Stabilisasi harga pangan pokok, termasuk di dalamnya kedelai, merupakan salah satu hal yang perlu dijaga oleh pemerintah untuk mendukung ketahanan pangan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis volatilitas harga domestik kedelai, baik lokal maupun impor, serta menganalisis integrasi pasar dan transmisi harga yang terjadi antara pasar kedelai domestik dengan pasar kedelai dunia. Analisis volatilitas harga kedelai dengan menggunakan model ARCH/GARCH menunjukkan bahwa harga kedelai dunia lebih volatil dibandingkan dengan harga kedelai domestik; sementara pada pasar kedelai domestik, harga kedelai lokal lebih volatil dibandingkan dengan harga kedelai impor. Model Ravallion digunakan untuk menganalisis integrasi pasar dan transmisi harga antara pasar kedelai dunia dengan pasar kedelai domestik. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa tidak terjadi integrasi jangka pendek, namun terjadi integrasi jangka panjang dengan proses transmisi harga yang lemah antara pasar kedelai dunia dengan pasar kedelai domestik.

Dampak Insentif Pajak Perumahan Terhadap Potensi Penerimaan Pajak Negara Dan Peningkatan Pendapatan Masyarakat : Kasus Provinsi Papua

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-22
Author(s):  
Towaf Totok Irawan
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Tax Incentives ◽  
High Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Primary Input ◽  
State Revenue ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Until now the government and private sector have not been able to address the backlog of 13.5 million housing units for ownership status and 7.6 million units for residential status. The high price of land has led to the high price of the house so that low-income communities (MBR) is not able to reach out to make a home purchase. In addition to the high price of land, tax factors also contribute to the high price of the house. The government plans to issue a policy for the provision of tax incentives, ie abolish VAT on home-forming material transaction. This policy is expected to house prices become cheaper, so the demand for housing increases, and encourage the relevant sectors to intensify its role in the construction of houses. It is expected to replace the lost tax potential and increase incomes. Analysis of the impact of tax incentives housing to potential state revenue and an increase in people's income, especially in Papua province is using the table IO because in addition to looking at the role each sector can also see the impact on taxes (income tax 21 Pph 25 Pph, VAT), and incomes (wage). Although in the short-term impact is still small, but very rewarding in the long run. Keywords: Backlog, Gross Input, Primary Input, Intermediate Input

scholarly journals Enhancing Export Diversification in Resource-Rich Economies – Policies and Evidence from Kazakhstan

2019 ◽  
Vol 71 ◽  
pp. 01002
Author(s):  
P. Zhelev
Keyword(s):  
Natural Resources ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Monitoring And Evaluation ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
High Price ◽  
Export Diversification ◽  
Policy Initiatives ◽  
Price Boom ◽  
The Government ◽  
Competitive Economy

Kazakhstan has managed to benefit from its considerable endowments of natural resources during the commodity price boom in the 2000s. However, the global crisis of 2008-09 has demonstrated that relying on a single sector prone to high price volatility cannot be a viable strategy for development. The government of Kazakhstan well realizes that and for already 2 decades has been pursuing various industrial policy initiatives to build a more diversified and competitive economy. The paper aims to examine how successful were those policies by applying various indicators of export diversification. The results show that progress has been very limited as the country’s export basket is highly concentrated and still dominated by oil. This suggests that Kazakhstan should ensure better implementation, coordination, monitoring and evaluation of its diversification initiatives.

ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY AND GROWTH WHEN ENVIRONMENTAL AWARENESS IS ENDOGENOUS

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 1102-1136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karine Constant ◽  
Marion Davin
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Policy ◽  
Pollution Abatement ◽  
Environmental Preferences ◽  
Tax Rate ◽  
Environment Policy ◽  
Damped Oscillations ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Education Subsidy

This paper examines the relationship between environmental policy and growth when green preferences are endogenously determined by education and pollution. We consider an environmental policy in which the government implements a tax on pollution and recycles the revenue to fund pollution abatement activities and/or an education subsidy (influencing green behaviors). When the sensitivity of agents' environmental preferences to pollution and human capital is high, the economy can converge to a balanced growth path equilibrium with damped oscillations. We show that this environmental policy can both remove the oscillations, associated with intergenerational inequalities, and enhance the long-term growth rate. However, this solution requires that the revenue from the tax rate must be allocated to education and direct environmental protection simultaneously. We demonstrate that this type of mixed-instrument environment policy is an effective way to address environmental and economic issues in both the short and the long run.

scholarly journals Volatility and Causality in Strategic Commodities: Characteristics, Myth and Evidence

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 162
Author(s):  
Youngho Chang ◽  
Zheng Fang ◽  
Shigeyuki Hamori
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Precious Metals ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Common Belief ◽  
Simultaneous Impact ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gold Silver ◽  
The Common ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Time Periods

Commodity prices have fluctuated sharply and Brent oil has been considered the most volatile commodity in price. This paper aims to reveal the true characteristics of the price volatility of six commodities, namely, Brent oil, gold, silver, wheat, corn and soybean and to verify the existence of a long-run relationship and causation among each pair of commodity prices. It finds that there has been persistent volatility in prices of all six commodities from 1986 to 2010. Contrary to the common belief, however, Brent oil appears not to be the most volatile in price. Rather the prices of precious metals and agricultural commodities have been more volatile than Brent oil for some time periods. It also finds that there has been a long-run relationship between the prices of Brent oil and soybean, of Brent oil and wheat, and a bilateral causality relationship between them, which implies that there has been a simultaneous impact on the price trajectories of these commodities.

scholarly journals The Long-Run Determinants of Indian Government Bond Yields

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 168-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanweer Akram ◽  
Anupam Das
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Indian Government ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Key Driver ◽  
The Government

This paper investigates the long-term determinants of the nominal yields of Indian government bonds (IGBs). It examines whether John Maynard Keynes’ supposition that the short-term interest rate is the key driver of the long-term government bond yield holds over the long run, after controlling for key economic factors. It also appraises if the government fiscal variable has an adverse effect on government bond yields over the long run. The models estimated in this paper show that in India the short-term interest rate is the key driver of the long-term government bond yield over the long run. However, the government debt ratio does not have any discernible adverse effect on IGB yields over the long run. These findings will help policy makers to (i) use information on the current trend of the short-term interest rate and other key macro variables to form their long-term outlook about IGB yields, and (ii) understand the policy implications of the government's fiscal stance.

Research on the Long-Term Memory of Commodity Housing Price Volatility Based on the FIGARCH Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 1079-1080 ◽  
pp. 1194-1198
Author(s):  
Feng Lan ◽  
Bao Hua Chen
Keyword(s):  
Housing Price ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Government ◽  
Figarch Model ◽  
And Control

The purpose of this paper is to test whether there exists a long-term memory volatility characteristics of housing price. The paper based on the data ranging of Zhengzhou from January 2004 to May 2014, by adopting the FIGARCH model, empirically studies and analysis this characteristics. The research results indicate that the price fluctuation of Zhengzhou commodity homes exist effect of cluster and long-term memory characteristic. FIGARCH model can capture the long memory well, and can predict the future price of commodity residential house for a period of time .Therefore, FIGARCH model can well catch long-term memory and forecast the commodity housing price in the future period of time, which illustrates that external shocks have long-standing impact on the volatility of commodity housing price as well, reaching the conclusion that long-effect Mechanism of regulation and control should be set and developed during the macro-control of the government.

scholarly journals Boris Johnson to the Rescue? How the Conservatives Won the Radical-Right Vote in the 2019 General Election

2021 ◽  
pp. 003232172110511
Author(s):  
Geoffrey Evans ◽  
Roosmarijn de Geus ◽  
Jane Green
Keyword(s):  
Panel Study ◽  
General Election ◽  
Radical Right ◽  
Strategic Issue ◽  
Radical Right Parties ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk

How can centre–right parties in majoritarian systems adapt to threats from the radical right? Using a long-term inter-election panel study, we identify a remarkably stable constituency of support for Britain’s recent radical-right parties – the UK Independence Party and the Brexit Party. We show also how these same voters defected from the Conservatives across elections. In response, the government used a combination of the election of a new leader, Boris Johnson, and a hardline position on Brexit to reincorporate these voters into its support base, helping to lead to a large Conservative majority in 2019. Cross-party evaluations of Johnson were even more important in influencing this success than the issue of Brexit itself. Effective centre–right adaption to radical-right challenges is not simply about strategic issue positioning, it can also derive from centre–right leaders with populist appeal.

scholarly journals Analisis Volatilitas Harga Cabai Keriting di Indonesia dengan Pendekatan ARCH GARCH

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Rizka Amalia Nugrahapsari ◽  
Idha Widi Arsanti
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
High Price ◽  
Stabilization Policy ◽  
Price Variation ◽  
Price Stabilization ◽  
Price Movement ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
The Government ◽  
Import Restrictions ◽  
The Right

<strong>English</strong><br />Chili includes a strategic commodity in Indonesia because of its high price volatility that makes it a major determinant of national inflation dynamics. The government always tries to improve its capability in implementing the chili price stabilization policy. The objective of the study is to assess the volatility of curly chili price volatility in Indonesia by using the ARCH GARCH approach with daily price data of January 2011 to December 2015. The results showed that the right model to calculate chili price volatility is ARCH (1). The price volatility was low and price movement was only influenced by the volatility in the previous day, not by the price variant, so the chili price volatility in the future will be smaller. Low volatility indicates that demand and supply characteristics were predictable. Price changes gradually and predictable. Farmers’ protection policy through import restrictions improves stability of domestic supply. The policy reduces the risk of drastic decline in prices due to imported chili, so the price volatility of chili in the period 2011–2015 was lower than the previous period. However, the seasonal price variation remains. Therefore, the policy should be supported with all season chili availability assurance.<br /><br /><br /><strong>Indonesian</strong><br />Cabai termasuk komoditas strategis di Indonesia karena harganya volatil sehingga menjadi salah satu penentu utama dinamika inflasi nasional. Untuk itu, pemerintah senantiasa berusaha meningkatkan kemampuannya dalam melaksanakan kebijakan stabilisasi harga cabai. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji volatilitas harga cabai keriting di Indonesia dengan pendekatan ARCH GARCH dan data harga harian cabai keriting periode Januari 2011 hingga Desember 2015. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa model yang tepat untuk menghitung volatilitas harga cabai keriting adalah ARCH(1). Hasil pendugaan model menunjukkan volatilitas harga cabai keriting rendah dan pergerakan harga hanya dipengaruhi oleh volatilitas pada satu hari sebelumnya, tidak dipengaruhi varian harga, sehingga diperkirakan volatilitas harga cabai keriting di masa datang akan semakin kecil. Volatilitas yang rendah menunjukkan karakteristik waktu permintaan dan penawaran cabai keriting dapat diprediksi. Perubahan harga terjadi bertahap dan dapat diperkirakan. Kebijakan perlindungan petani melalui pembatasan impor cabai menyebabkan penyediaan cabai di dalam negeri menjadi lebih stabil. Kebijakan ini mengurangi risiko penurunan harga secara drastis akibat masuknya cabai impor, sehingga volatilitas harga cabai pada periode 2011–2015 lebih rendah dibandingkan periode sebelumnya. Namun, masih terdapat variasi harga musiman. Oleh karena itu, kebijakan ini perlu diperkuat dengan upaya jaminan sediaan cabai sepanjang musim.

scholarly journals BANKING SECTOR ORIENTED FINANCIAL INCLUSION IN INDIA: A LONG TERM PERSPECTIVE

2020 ◽  
pp. 42-59
Author(s):  
Sana Pathan ◽  
Archana Fulwari
Keyword(s):  
Financial Services ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Inclusive Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
The Government ◽  
Improve Access ◽  
Reserve Bank Of India

Financial Inclusion is an emerging concept. The objective of the government behind 100 percent Financial Inclusion is to have inclusive growth in India. Several initiatives have been taken by the Government of India and the Reserve Bank of India to improve access to financial services. To measure the effectiveness of these initiatives there is need to measure the extent of Financial Inclusion. Financial Inclusion can be measured by gauging the progress in access to and usage of a range of products and services of financial institutions over time. The present study sought to propose an index to measure the extent of banking sector oriented Financial Inclusion in India over a period of time rather than a cross-section study which has been the focus of many a studies. The study used more specific indicators of banks-centric financial inclusion dimensions to gauge the long run trend in Financial Inclusion in India. The results indicate that there is much improvement in Financial Inclusion in India since the implementation of financial sector reforms.

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